name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
• Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Research interests
статистические методы, организационноэкономическое моделирование. Разработал новую область прикладной статистики — статистику объектов нечисловой природы
Web site url
—
Current rating (overall rating of articles)
0
TOP5 coauthors
Articles count: 148
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ

THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING
DescriptionThe article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decisionmaking. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decisionmaking, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decisionmaking in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four expertstheorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager  the basis of management

SYSTEM PARADIGM AS THE BASIS OF CREATION OF AGROINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX CONTROLLING SERVICE
DescriptionSystem paradigm is discussed conformably to functioning of controlling institution of a largescale agroindustrial system. Presently the systemacity became the general platform of fundamental and applied, scientific and practical elaborations and projects. Now in the sphere of system researches surge of interest in questions of classification is observed. Apparently, it is connected with accumulation of results of private researches in all areas of this discipline and with inevitable transdisciplinary crossings of their practical applications. So, undoubted intervention of high technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on coordination of actions of developers of various subject domains. On the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole  on the system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection

Description
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the development of controlling of organizational and economic methods, including forecasting tools, the development and management of decisionmaking, and others. Controlling service is central to the development and implementation of organizational and economic methods to achieve the goals set by management. However, quite often the controlling service has a different name, justified by the history of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we begin with a discussion of the content of the terms "controlling" and especially "Controlling organizational and economic methods". We discuss the role of "controlling service" in the management of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial and municipal entities. As an example of the controlling instrument of organizational and economic methods is considered an automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents, the use in this system the expert technologies and quantitative risk estimation methods. We consider this system as a controlling tool in the management of safety, while customers and performers do not use the term "controlling" in the official documentation of this project. In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the executive power is the indicator "estimate the population of the executive authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of strategic management of regional and municipal entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of solidary information economy (the former name  the informal information economy of the future), developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas of solidary information economy. However, the term "controlling" is not always used in relation to this subject. The same applies to researches related to organizational and economic modeling of innovation and development of innovative systems

CHARACTERIZATION OF AVERAGE VALUES BY MEANS OF MEASUREMENT SCALES
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionAccording to measurement theory, statistical data are measured in various scales. The most widely used ordinal scale, scales of intervals and relations. Statistical methods of data analysis should correspond to the scales in which the data is measured. The term "correspondence" is specified with the help of the concepts of an adequate function and an allowable scale transformation. The main content of the article is a description of the average values that can be used to analyze data measured in the ordinal scale, interval and relationship scales, and some others. The main attention is paid to the means for Cauchy and the means for Kolmogorov. In addition to the mean, from this point of view, polynomials and correlation indices are also analyzed. Detailed mathematical proofs of characterization theorems are given for the first time in scientific periodicals. It is shown that in the ordinal scale there are exactly n average values, that can be used, namely, n order statistics. The proof is represented as a chain of 9 lemmas. In the scale of intervals from all Kolmogorov means, only the arithmetic mean can be used. In the scale of relations from all the Kolmogorov means, only the power means and the geometric mean are permissible. The kind of adequate polynomials in the relationship scale is indicated

APPLIED STATISTICS – THE STATE AND THE PROSPECTS
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionApplied Statistics  the science of how to analyze the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical area it develops very quickly. It includes numerous widely and deeply developed scientific directions. Those who use the applied statistics and other statistical methods, usually focused on specific areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical analysis of the current state of applied statistics and discuss trends in the development of statistical methods. Most of the practical importance of applied statistics justifies the usefulness of the work on the development of its methodology, in which the field of scientific and applied activities would be considered as a whole. We have given some brief information about the history of applied statistics. Based on Scientometrics of Applied Statistics we state that each expert has only a small part of accumulated knowledge in this area. We discuss five topical areas in which modern applied statistics develops, ie five "points of growth": nonparametric, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of nonnumerical data. We discuss some details of the basic ideas of a nonnumerical statistics. In the last more than 60 years in Russia, there has been a huge gap between official statistics and the scientific community of experts on statistical methods

Description
The problem of controlling a largescale agroindustrial system, which should be solved in the process of organizing agricultural production, is considered. It is shown, that the scientific and methodological apparatus of the service subsystem controlling such an object should be expanded in comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial production. The article considers a new approach to the theory of management of largescale socioeconomic systems, based on a solidary information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed, its use as a basic organizational and economic theory instead of "economics" is justified. According to the solidary information economy, modern information technologies and decisionmaking theory make it possible to build information and communication system based on an "open network society" designed to identify people's needs and organize production in order to meet them. Predecessors  V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others. The main content of the research is the forecasting of the development of the future society and its economy, the development of organizational and economic methods and models designed to enhance the effectiveness of management processes. As an economic component of the state ideology of Russia, we propose to use a solidary information economy. The organizational and economic theory of Russia's innovative development should be based on a solidary information economy

01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionThe relationship of Mathematical Statistics (wider  Mathematical methods of research) and history is multifaceted. In our opinion, the history of mathematical statistics is an integral part of this mathematical discipline. We have given a review of our works on the history of statistical methods. The role of mathematical statistics for the history is very important. In this article, we restrict ourselves to the questions of chronology. For centuries, the chronology is considered as a part of applied mathematics. The main problem is that the whole "common" concept of the Russian and the World history as a whole presented in textbooks was faked by the opponents of Russia after the collapse of the global Empire (Russian kingdom) in the early 17th century  400 years ago. The stories about historical events are the information weapon. It was used by the new rulers to suppress the resistance of the vanquished. A new mathematical and statistical chronology of general and Russian history, which was built by a scientific team led by Academician Fomenko, has been helpful for the discussion about the current economic and political problems of relations between Russia and the West in the XXI century. In our opinion, the new chronology of the World and Russian history should be one of the foundations of statepatriotic ideology and deriving practical solutions. The purpose of this article is to give the initial idea of the new chronology from this point of view

CONTROLLING OF CONSUMER PRICES DYNAMICS AND LIVING WAGE
DescriptionIn accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the activity of executive authorities is the measure "real disposable income of the population". For its calculation it is necessary to measure the level of consumer prices. The article presents the minimum consumer basket of physiologically essential food products, designed in 1993 by the Institute of High Statistical Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993  2017). We discuss the application of the developed tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of indices of inflation, the living wage and the real disposable income of the population. The methods of the measurement and the use of inflation constitute an important part of training courses in econometrics, which are taught in the context of the scientificeducational complex "Engineering Business and Management" of the Baumann Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1% of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30% use the data contained in the publications of predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their arguments to the real world. This work belongs to the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote

TO THE QUESTION OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS DEVELOPMENT OF CONTROLLING
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionOn the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used techniques which discussed in the book by Orlov AI, Lutsenko EV, Loikaw VI "Advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling" (2015). These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole  on the system interval fuzzy math (see the same named book by Orlov AI and Lutsenko EV, 2014). Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection

EFFECT OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR DECISIONMAKING IMPLICATIONS
DescriptionThe term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology  the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy")  the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology  the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology  is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic  the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods