name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
• Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Research interests
статистические методы, организационноэкономическое моделирование. Разработал новую область прикладной статистики — статистику объектов нечисловой природы
Web site url
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Current rating (overall rating of articles)
0
TOP5 coauthors
Articles count: 145
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ

METHODS OF REDUCING SPACE DIMENSION OF STATISTICAL DATA
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionOne of the "points of growth" of applied statistics is methods of reducing the dimension of statistical data. They are increasingly used in the analysis of data in specific applied research, such as sociology. We investigate the most promising methods to reduce the dimensionality. The principal components are one of the most commonly used methods to reduce the dimensionality. For visual analysis of data are often used the projections of original vectors on the plane of the first two principal components. Usually the data structure is clearly visible, highlighted compact clusters of objects and separately allocated vectors. The principal components are one method of factor analysis. The new idea of factor analysis in comparison with the method of principal components is that, based on loads, the factors breaks up into groups. In one group of factors, new factor is combined with a similar impact on the elements of the new basis. Then each group is recommended to leave one representative. Sometimes, instead of the choice of representative by calculation, a new factor that is central to the group in question. Reduced dimension occurs during the transition to the system factors, which are representatives of groups. Other factors are discarded. On the use of distance (proximity measures, indicators of differences) between features and extensive class are based methods of multidimensional scaling. The basic idea of this class of methods is to present each object as point of the geometric space (usually of dimension 1, 2, or 3) whose coordinates are the values of the hidden (latent) factors which combine to adequately describe the object. As an example of the application of probabilistic and statistical modeling and the results of statistics of nonnumeric data, we justify the consistency of estimators of the dimension of the data in multidimensional scaling, which are proposed previously by Kruskal from heuristic considerations. We have considered a number of consistent estimations of dimension of models (in regression analysis and in theory of classification). We also give some information about the algorithms for reduce the dimensionality in the automated systemcognitive analysis

THE DIVERSITY OF CONTROLLING DOMAINS AND INSTRUMENTS
DescriptionIn modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area  it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas  controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling

MULTIFORMITY OF OBJECTS OF NONNUMERICAL NATURE
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionIn accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical statistics the statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature (statistics of nonnumerical objects, nonnumerical data statistics, nonnumeric statistics) is one of the four main areas of mathematical statistics. Statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature consists of a central core  statistics in spaces of arbitrary nature  and statistical theories of analysis of specific types of nonnumeric data. To identify possibilities of application of statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature it is useful to explore the multiformity of objects of nonnumeric nature. This is the subject of this article. We have considered the results of measurements at scales other than absolute; binary relations; dichotomous (binary) data; sets. We have also analyzed the objects of nonnumerical nature as statistical data, and their importance in the formation of statistical or mathematical model of a real phenomenon, as a result of data analysis

Description
In many areas  the economy, quality management, medicine, the ecology, in safety of flights and others  the problems of analysis, estimation and management of risks have much in common. Therefore, we consider it necessary to develop a general theory of risk. Approaches and methods of this theory will allow in the future solving problems of uniform risk management in specific subject areas. Based on the analysis of scientific publications and industry regulations it must be noted that private risk theories tend to become isolated within themselves, create their own internal standards and systems of regulations. Separately  for banking, separately  for safety, separately  for industrial accidents, etc. In order to construct a general theory of risk we analyze use of the term "risk" in various fields, consider the variety of types of risks, give the basic definitions in the field of analysis, estimation and management of risk. We discuss planetary risks (at Earth as a whole), global risks (at the level of one or more States), financial risks, commercial risks (risks at the level of the immediate environment of the company), and production (internal, operational) risks relating to the activities of individual enterprises (organizations), personal risks. Instruments of total risk theory allow us equally solve the basic problems of analysis, estimation and management of risk for all areas

OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MOMENTS OF OUTPUT OF NEW MODELS OF PRODUCTS TO THE MARKET
DescriptionOne of the important problems of marketing  the choice moments of output of new models (brands) of products to the market. In the article for the first time in scientific periodicals we have proposed a sketch economicmathematical optimization model for selection of time of output of new brands to market. We have received the calculation formulas for the moments of the output of new brands

SCIENCE AS THE OBJECT OF MANAGEMENT
DescriptionScience is considered as a branch of the national economy. We discuss the relationship of areas of human activity, applied science and fundamental science. As an example, the development of the fundamental theory of decisionmaking and expertise are considered in the implementation of applied researches in the aviation and rocketspace industry. Is emphasized that the major achievement in science  the novelty of the results. We discuss the problem of estimation the effectiveness of scientific activity, the advantages and disadvantages of estimates based on bibliometric databases and citation indices, we show the basic role of expert technologies. Is examined the role of globalization and patriotism in the development of science. Is substantiated the principal difference between acquiring knowledge and promote research results. We consider it necessary to conduct detailed studies into the science of science and development based on these sciencebased recommendations for the management of science

01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionAdequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid online access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has wellknown bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national informationanalytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is socalled "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated systemcognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free online access to the RSCI

NONPARAMETRIC AND APPLIED STATISTICS IN OUR COUNTRY
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionWe continue the series of articles about the history of statistics. We discuss the development of nonparametric and applied statistics in our country in 1930  1980 years. We have presented the studies of the great statisticians of the twentieth century, such as N.V. Smirnov, L.N. Bolshev, V.V. Nalimov. American statistics show Russian debate about applied statistics. We have briefly listed the process of creation of the AllUnion Statistical Association (1990) and its further developments

01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the article we have considered A. N. Kolmogorov and N. V. Smirnov papers dedicated to onesided and twosided goodnessoffit and homogeneity tests. It has been shown that the term "Kolmogorov  Smirnov test" used incorrectly. We have also given the recommendations on use of the terms "Kolmogorov test", "Smirnov test", "test of KolmogorovSmirnov type" and discussed omegasquare test (Cramervon Mises–Smirnov test). Typical errors in the application of these criterions have been considered, in particular to test for normality of the distribution of measurement results

NONPARAMETRIC CYCLES ESTIMATORS
01.00.00 Physicalmathematical sciences
DescriptionIn many applications, we study the time series (or a random process), which is the sum of the periodic deterministic function of time and random errors that distort the periodic signal. It is required to estimate the length of the period and the periodic component. It does not assume that the periodic function is included in any parameter family of functions, such as finite sums of sines and cosines. It is obvious that the assumption of occurrence of a periodic function in parametric family does not meet the characteristics of the real world, ie, is conditional, internal mathematical (look for the keys under the lamp because there is a light, not in the bush, where lost, because there are dark). For similar reasons, it is impossible to assume that the distribution function of the random errors is included in any parameter family of distributions. In accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical statistics in this article we studied the problem of nonparametric estimation (minimum) length of the period and the periodic component of the signal. On the basis of natural variation and scope of indicators is suggested a new class of nonparametric estimators of the length of the period and the periodic component in the time series. Based on the general results of statistics of objects of nonnumeric nature we proved the consistency of these estimates. From the practical point of view it is necessary to minimize the numerical (one parameter  ability length of period of time) one or more of the 66 functionals, described in the article