name
Rybak Oleg Olegovich
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Articles count: 7
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
Correlation and spectral methods were used to analyze changes in the regime of air temperature and precipitation rate in the Black Sea region in the 20th century. It was established that climatic tendencies on the regional scale differed from the global ones. In order to predict their consequences in the nearest 10 to 20 years it is necessary to concentrate efforts on studying and modeling natural climatic variability, which superimposes on the relatively slow global changes
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CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AND ELABORATION OF STRATEGY FOR ITS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
In this article, we consider some aspects of regional development under changing climatic conditions. Further, we discuss trends and in global and regional climate in the past century and scenarios of climatic changes up to the end of the current century. The system of measures is suggested for transition to sustainable development of Russian Black Sea Coast. The conclusion is made that elaboration and correction of the regional sustainable development strategy requires wide spreading of information about climatic changes, environmental, economical and demographic conditions in the region
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA: TENDENCIES AND POSSIBILITIES FOR PREDICTION
Description
What we have analyzed in the article is the spatial structure of the surface air temperature and precipitation amount fields in the Black Sea Region. Spatial correlation method is applied to reveal teleconnections between surface air temperature and precipitation measured at the meteorological stations of the region from one hand and globally averaged surface air temperature and atmospheric circulation indecies from the other hand. Atmospheric circulation indecies – North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Oscillation «North Sea – Northern Caspian Sea» (NCP) – determine to a great extent regional temperature and precipitation regime. The goal of the current research is to establish probable causes and mechanisms influencing regional climatic variations and examining of possible connections of the latter with the global climate change. It is demonstrated that relations between air temperature and precipitation at particular stations in the region and global temperature are weak and ambigous. At the same time, temperature and precipitation regimes are affected by changes of phases of NAO and NCP. It means that global warming has no direct effect on the regional climate. More probably, global warming influences the regional climate through the changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern in the particular region
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APPLICATION OF CLIMATIC INDICES FOR EVALUATION OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN TOURIST ATTRACTIVENESS
Description
In the article we consider the results of the study of climatic attractiveness of the South of Russia from the point of view of tourism development. Formal definition of attractiveness was reached by using a wide spread concept of climatic indices. Any climatic index is calculated by a set of medical and biological characteristics. The latter are defined on the basis of human physiology. Indices, which are used for evaluation of attractiveness of one or another region from the point of view of recreation and tourism, have certain peculiarities. Very often they are calculated using poorly formalized and arguable indications like psychological feeling of meteorological characteristics and even aesthetic perception. Taking into account above mentioned experience we have suggested a new approach for evaluation of climatic tourist indices basing on initial (standard 3 hour discretion) meteorological observations with maximum possible exclusion from a calculation scheme all subjective parameters. Our approach is based on a well-known method of Mieczkowski [4]. The method was developed more than 30 ears ago and is still widely applied. Our method allows objectively evaluate nonsmoothed index values because it takes into account combinations of meteorological characteristics with maximum available discretion during the day. A method demonstrated its capability for evaluation of regional variations in tourist attractiveness. We analyzed 40–year dynamics of attractiveness in the region being in the focus of the study
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CALCULATION OF MELTING RATE OF DEBRIS-COVERED AREAS OF A MOUNTAIN GLACIER
Description
Considerable parts of the ablation zones of mountain glaciers in various mountain systems of the World are covered with rocks (dibris). Heat and physical properties of debris layer are very different from those of ice. Debris layer determines ablation rate and ice run-off regime. Dependently on thickness, it can accelerate ablation or totally isolate ice cover from melting. To describe ablation rate in a mathematical model correctly, one needs to include in it a block responsible for heat exchange of debris-covered areas with the atmosphere. In the paper, we consider an algorithm for calculation of ablation rate under the layer of debris, which is to be incorporated to the surface mass balance model. We also describe results of calculations of temperature distribution in a debris layer and estimates of ablation rate under the latter. All calculations were carried out for heat and physical properties of Djankuat Glacier in the Central Caucasus
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Description
In the article, we consider climatic conditions during the cold period of the year in the mountain claster of Sochi. We have analyzed variability of time series of air temperature and precipitation sums at meteostation Krasnaya Polyana. We have established, that average daily temperature in the cold period was growing during the last thirty years. This process was accompanied by decreasing of daily temperature amplitides. Winter of the year 2016/17 is characterized by early beginning of snow accumulation because of comparatively low temperatures in December 2016. This was the reason in general for comparatively more dense snow cover and to more frequent avalanches
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Description
Considered in the study, there are specific features and stratigraphy of the snow cover in the region of the mountain claster of Sochi (Krasnaya Polyana) during winter of 2016-2017. We have analyzed patterns of snow thickness distribution, its dependence on the absolute elevation, slope exposition and landscape type. Conclusions were made about the necessity of the regular study of the structure and quality of the snow cover for the purpose of mountain skiing development
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