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Nevecherya Artyom Pavlovich
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Articles count: 3
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
In this article, we have proposed a forecast of labor resources by sectors of the labor market of the Russian Federation until 2018 inclusive. The probabilistic parameters of the dynamics of labor resources were calculated using the considered model (articles [1-4]). Further, these probabilities were used to estimate and parameterize the trends of employed and unemployed (with a known last place of employment) specialists in each industry. For each sector of the Russian economy, the type of trend that best approximates the long-term (more than three years) dynamics of labor resources in this sector was selected. It is shown that the forecast error for 1 year is less than 1% using the selected trend models. Further, identified long-term trends were used in forecasting. Based on the results of the forecast of the number of people employed in the sectors of the Russian economy, the sectors were divided into two groups. The first group contains sectors with a significant change in the number of employed in. The second group contains sectors, changes in employed in which were insignificant. At the end of the article, an example of an analysis of two sectors from the first group is given. Causes of changes in the dynamics of labor resources in the researched sectors of the economy were identified. Ones of the main sectors of the economy were considered in this example: "Manufacturing industries" and "Financial activities, real estate transactions, leasing and provision of services"
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FORECASTING OF THE DYNAMICS OF THELABOR FORCE USING AN INTERSECTORAL MATHEMATICAL MODEL
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
In this article we have proposed an intersectoral mathematical model of self-organization of the labor market. This model is the system of balance equations of the dynamics of the labor force. The model contains parameters that show where workers were employed in previous times. Therefore it is possible to monitor the dynamics of intersectoral labor force over a long period of time. It has been shown that the model allows to solve the problem of forecasting the number of employed and unemployed in the labor market under the assumption that the parameters of the probabilistic model are constant for a certain period. The use of the model is illustrated on the example in which the probabilities of hiring and firing of employees were calculated, as well as the probabilities that the employees in the analyzed period (2011 – 2012 years) leave the labor market. The forecast of the number of employed and unemployed at the end of the next period (2013) is based on the calculated probabilities. It has been demonstrated that the deviation of the predicted values from the statistical data is not significant, which witnesses about the efficiency of the forecast
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A NUMERICAL ALGORITHM IN THE PROBLEM OF SELF-ORGANIZATION OF LABOR RESOURCES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
In this article, there is a numerical method of solving the problem of self-organization of the labor resources. The problem deals with finding probabilities of hiring and the layoffs of specialists from the sectors of the labor market. A mathematical model of labor resources dynamics is used to solve this problem. The initial problem is incorrect, because number of equations of the descriptive system is less than number of unknown variables. A special algorithm is designed for guaranteed finding the normal solution in finite number of iterations. The algorithm is separated into two key stages. Initially, unconditional normal solution of the problem is found by applying the modified method of Gauss for underdetermined systems. Later, this solution is projected in the subspace of permissible values. After that, the normal solution of the problem with consideration of non-negativity of the desired values is being found by using the gradient projection method. The proposed algorithm has been successfully used to develop application in programming environment C++. This application is focused on solving of the problem of selforganization of the labor resources. Comparative analysis of speed of the application and add-ins MS Excel "Solver" showed that the same problem is solved much faster in the application designed by the author than in a table processor MS Excel when using the add-in "Solver". This demonstrates the high efficiency of the proposed method
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