name
Kurnosov Sergey Andreyevich
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
• Kuban State Agrarian University
кафедра компьютерных технологий и систем
декан факультета прикладной информатики
Research interests
Математические и инструментальные методы управления в экономике
Web site url
—
Current rating (overall rating of articles)
0
TOP5 co-authors
Articles count: 13
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ
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COGNITIVE MODELS OF PREDICTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION
DescriptionThe application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
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Description
Production and processing of grains formed in the national economic system of the country a number of cereals-governmental sectors, such as grain production, grain elevator industry, flour, cereals and mixed fodder production, which constitute the grain complex country. The significance and role of the grain as a commodity in the state economy can not be overestimated. This product, is totally liquid, which has a constant, steady demand at any time of the year, in any region. Ongoing measures to increase grain production and improve its implementation did not have a complex character, therefore, insignificant effect on the efficiency of the industry and the competitiveness of grain production. The shortagecovered by imports.According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP) to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone) technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of developing multicriteria economic-mathematical model of a comprehensive assessment of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops.
- Description