name
Galkin Georgy Aleksandrovich
Scholastic degree
•
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
• Kuban State Agrarian University
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Articles count: 1
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PREDICTIVE EVALUATION OF THE EXPECTED RICE YIELD IN THE KUBAN REGION IN 2016-2020
06.00.00 Agricultural sciences
DescriptionThe article presents the analysis of variation of daily mean temperatures for the period 1977-2015. Clear tendency for their increasing in pre-sowing and especially in growing period is found. Heat supply of separate months in pre-sowing period increased in the row: April-February-January-December-March, and that of growing period – in a row: May-Juny-JulySeptember-August. Presence of slight correlation (from -0,256 to 0,268) of temperatures in winter-spring months with heat supply of coming spring summer months is found. It is shown that correlation of rice yield with temperatures of pre-sowing (DecemberApril) and growing (May-September) periods varies from weak to average (from 0,016 to 0,524) with a tendency to increasing from winter months to summer ones. Use of analog method made it possible to estimate roughly the nature of t upcoming growing season of rice in the current 2016: after the abnormally warm winter one should expect the value of heat supply of summer months to be close to normal. In the physiological sense, such distribution of summer temperatures is favorable for rice. Use of one of the most effective forecast methods – smoothing the time series (method of «moving decades») – made it possible to evaluate medium-term rhythms of heat supply of rice growing season and yields. It was found that after an abnormally high level of heat supply of the growing season, marked during last decade, we should expect a decrease in spring and summer temperatures - the next attack of the "cold" cycle. If this hypothesis is confirmed, then up to 2020, and later a natural tendency for decrease in rice yields, arising from the adverse factors of temperature, will continue which should also affect the economic efficiency of the industry as a whole