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# № 105(1), January, 2015

### Public date: 30.01.2015

• pdf  236.065kb doc 236.065kb Views: 843 Date: 30.01.2015
Description
In practical use of methods of applied statistics we do not apply separate methods for describing data, estimation, testing hypotheses, but we must use deployed whole procedures - the so-called "statistical technology". The concept of "statistical technology" is similar to the concept of "technological process" in the theory and practice of organization of production. It is quite natural that some statistical technology can better meet the needs of the researcher (user, statistics) than others, some - are modern, and others - outdated, some properties are studied, and the others - no. It is important to stress that a qualified and efficient use of statistical methods - this is not one single statistical hypothesis testing and estimation of characteristics or parameters of a given distribution from fixed family. This kind of operations - only the individual building blocks that make up the statistical technology. The procedure of the statistical data analysis - is an information process, in other words, one or other information technology. Statistical information is subject to a variety of operations (series, parallel, or more complex schemes). In this article we discuss statistical technologies and the problem of "docking" algorithms. We introduce the concept of "high statistical technologies" and then we prove the necessity of their development and application. As the examples we have given the researches of Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We have also considered a number of education problems in domain of high statistical technologies
• pdf  273.549kb doc 273.549kb Views: 869 Date: 30.01.2015
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The statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the model of the sample as a set of independent identically distributed random variables. In this article we have considered the basic probabilistic models for obtaining non-numeric data. Namely, the models of dichotomous data, results of paired comparisons, binary relations, ranks, the objects of general nature. We have discussed the various options of probabilistic models and their practical use. For example, the basic probabilistic model of dichotomous data - Bernoulli vector (Lucian) i.e. final sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, for which the probabilities of success may be different. The mathematical tools of solutions of various statistical problems associated with the Bernoulli vectors are useful for the analysis of random tolerances; random sets with independent elements; in processing the results of independent pairwise comparisons; statistical methods for analyzing the accuracy and stability of technological processes; in the analysis and synthesis of statistical quality control plans (for dichotomous characteristics); the processing of marketing and sociological questionnaires (with closed questions like "yes" - "no"); the processing of socio-psychological and medical data, in particular, the responses to psychological tests such as MMPI (used in particular in the problems of human resource management), and analysis of topographic maps (used for the analysis and prediction of the affected areas for technological disasters, distributing corrosion, propagation environmentally harmful pollutants, various diseases (including myocardial infarction), in other situations), etc.
• pdf  2.267.649kb doc 2.267.649kb Views: 792 Date: 30.01.2015
Description
A number of information and semantic models has been developed using artificial intelligence system AIDOS-X. The similarity between the movement of the elements of the lunar orbit and the dynamics of the instantaneous pole of the Earth, as well as violations of the global atmospheric circulation and water, leading to the emergence of episodes of El Niño and La Niña are justified. We have explored a possibility of semantic information models equatorial regions of the Pacific for prediction of global climatic disturbances in the tropical latitudes. We made a forecast about breaking of global ocean circulation, or the occurrence of El Niño episode of the classical type in 2015
• pdf  436.578kb doc 436.578kb Views: 984 Date: 30.01.2015
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The article discusses the Riemann's unified field theory and its extension in 6D in general relativity. It is shown that in 6D there are possible movements on two spherical areas in the form of nonlinear waves
• pdf  154.799kb doc 154.799kb Views: 929 Date: 30.01.2015
Description
In this article we propose a method of determining the share or the significance (weight) of indicators of Beaver and risks R in the portfolio formed by these parameters allowing us to minimize the mean square error evaluating the effectiveness of the portfolio (risk) in the assessment of the financial condition of the companies investigated. The proposed method is the minimization of a quadratic form in variables satisfying lengthy conditions, i.e. the quadratic programming. This technique is implemented using four methods of optimization: analytical method, using built-in function minimization block given, the penalty function method and the gradient method. More so, this technique allows, as shown by the results of the computational experiments, the expert without routine statistical data processing to obtain additional information on the credit worthiness of the investigated enterprise and make a more informed conclusion about its financial condition, which speeds up the decision on granting a loan required by a company. Based on the techniques proposed in this paper, other techniques of assessing the creditworthiness of businesses may be constructed using the results of optimization theory based on well-established applied research methods: Method of evaluating the creditworthiness of Russia, Credit scoring method, the American method, method of Altman and others
• pdf  629.787kb doc 629.787kb Views: 821 Date: 30.01.2015
Description
This article briefly discusses the mathematical nature of the author's proposed modification of the weighted least squares, in which the amount of the data is used as the weights of observations. There are two variants of this modification. In the first one, the weighting of the observations was made by replacing one observation with a certain amount of the information in it by the corresponding number of observations for unit weight, and then we applied the standard method of least squares. In the second method, the weighting of the observations was performed for each value of the argument by replacing all observations with a certain amount of information in one observation of unit weight which had been obtained as a weighted average of them, and then we applied the standard method of least squares. We have described in detail the technique of numerical calculations of the amount of information in the observations, based on the theory of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and implemented it with a help of software tools - intelligent system called "Eidos". The article provides an illustration of the proposed approach on a simple numerical example. In the future, we are planning to give more detailed mathematical basis of the method of weighted least squares, which is modified by using the amount of information as weights, but also to explore its properties
• pdf  236.294kb doc 236.294kb Views: 1127 Date: 30.01.2015
Description
The phenomenon of electro convection in membrane systems is of considerable interest, because it is, according to many authors, the main mechanism of overlimiting mass transfer. A great number of theoretical and experimental works, in which, as a rule, dimensional values were used, are devoted to electro convection study. Because of that, in actual fact, there is investigated the influence of individual factors on the transfer process. For example, the influence of voltage jumps, the average speed of a forced stream of the solution, the geometric characteristics of the channel, the initial concentration, etc. However, the influence of these factors appears not separately, at the same time. Thus, there is the problem of introducing dimensionless complexes of dimensional values that have a physical meaning and that allow to evaluate the inner links of the process. As it is known, for solving that problem, there is applied a theory of similarity, based on the transition towards dimensionless parameters in equations and formulas describing the process, and using values, typical of the system under study. This work is devoted to the determining of physical meaning of similarity criteria of salt ions processes, taking into account electro convection in the desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus. The channel is bounded with perfectly selective, homogeneous anion-exchange and cation-exchange membranes. The introduced similarity criteria are used so as to conduct the theoretical study of the effect of a number of parameters of a desalting process on electro convection
• pdf  244.121kb doc 244.121kb Views: 894 Date: 30.01.2015
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In the article, we have suggested a general mathematical model of non-stationary and non-isothermal process of a binary electrolyte transfer in dilute solutions in an electro-membrane system (EMS), taking into account the joint action of gravitational convection, forced convection and electro convection in potential dynamic mode. This model is a boundary problem for a system of two-dimensional quasi-linear Navier-Stokes equation and Nernst-Planck-Poisson in partial derivatives equation. We have developed a theory of similarity of the process of heat and mass transfer in electro-membrane systems, specifically, in a desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus, taking into account joint actions of concentration polarization, space charge, gravity convection, forced convection and electro convection. It is shown that the criterion of electro convection does not directly depend on the initial concentration, and, therefore, electro convection occurs at any initial concentration. At the same time, the criterion of concentration convection linearly dependents on the initial concentration, and, therefore, at high concentrations, concentration convection prevails, while at lower concentrations, the role of gravitational convection begins to fall whereas the role of electro convection increases. The theory of similarity of the process of heat and mass transfer in the desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus built in this work taking into account the joint action of concentration polarization, space charge, gravity convection, forced convection and electro convection is important for engineering calculations, for scaling the results of experiments in an electro-membrane cell for industrial electro dialysis water desalting apparatus
• pdf  166.549kb doc 166.549kb Views: 856 Date: 30.01.2015
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The river Chelbas – is the steppe river passing through all Chelbasskaya village of the Kanevsky area. Selting of small rivers leads to rise in level of ground waters and bogging of flood plains which become unsuitable for any use. Harmful influence can conduce coming in a reservoir of a large number of suspensions. Suspensions increase water turbidity, reduce depth of penetration of sunshine, i.e. reduce a layer in which there is a photosynthesis that conducts to decrease of primary production of a waterway and deficiency of oxygen. The increase in ground rainfall can lead to change of fauna of a benthos, a silting of spawning areas, death from suffocation of have already spawned caviar of fishes. Research of the right river bank of Chelbas in the territory of stanitsa Chelbasskaya included studying of qualitative structure of wood, shrubby and grassy vegetation of a coastal strip, visual assessment of its state and definition of the general projective covering. In the lower current of these rivers the mineralization raises to 3-5 g/l. It speaks, apparently, by that the water containing alluvial deposits in the top parts of valleys have higher filtrational properties better are washed out, than on surrounding watersheds and slopes, and also down valleys. Works on bank protection will improve a condition of a right-bank strip of river Chelbas
• pdf  253.320kb doc 253.320kb Views: 893 Date: 30.01.2015
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The article presents the results of the studies on the effect of processing grape cuttings of different lengths with Norwegian rooting stimulator called Radix plus on their regenerative capacity. In the experiment we used two-, three-, four- and five buds cuttings of Vostorg table grape variety, characterized by weak rooting activity. Paraffined and pre-processed by growth regulator, these cuttings were rooted in vessels with water. The studies found that with the increasing length of cuttings we decrease the degree of blooming buds, which is associated with the manifestation of the longitudinal polarity. Processing cuttings with Radix Plus leads to inhibition of blooming buds and shoot growth, which is enhanced by increasing the length of cuttings from two to five buds. The maximum of rooting ability of the cuttings and output with 3 or more was reached by roots of two-buds cuttings. The regularity of these parameters decrease with increasing length of the four buds cuttings with some increase in the five buds; the maximum number of roots was reached by two buds and five buds cuttings. Using of Radix Plus reduces the difference between the rooting on short and long cuttings. The most consistent effect of Radix Plus is the output of the cuttings with 3 roots and more on three buds cuttings, and on the increasing number of roots - in the three- and four buds cuttings. When germinating the cuttings of Vostorg variety in comfortable conditions, without using growth regulators, it is better to use two buds cuttings, and in the case of pre-processing them with Radix Plus – we suggest three buds cuttings