№ 160(6), June, 2020
Public date: 30.06.2020
Archive of journal: Articles count 15, 43 kb
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PROBABILITY-STATISTICAL MODELS OF CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The correlation and determination coefficients are widely used in statistical data analysis. According to measurement theory, Pearson's linear paired correlation coefficient is applicable to variables measured on an interval scale. It cannot be used in the analysis of ordinal data. The nonparametric Spearman and Kendall rank coefficients estimate the relationship of ordinal variables. The critical value when testing the significance of the difference of the correlation coefficient from 0 depends on the sample size. Therefore, using the Chaddock Scale is incorrect. When using a passive experiment, the correlation coefficients are reasonably used for prediction, but not for control. To obtain probabilistic-statistical models intended for control, an active experiment is required. The effect of outliers on the Pearson correlation coefficient is very large. With an increase in the number of analyzed sets of predictors, the maximum of the corresponding correlation coefficients — indicators of approximation quality noticeably increases (the effect of “inflation” of the correlation coefficient). Four main regression analysis models are considered. Models of the least squares method with a determinate independent variable are distinguished. The distribution of deviations is arbitrary, however, to obtain the limit distributions of parameter estimates and regression dependences, we assume that the conditions of the central limit theorem are satisfied. The second type of model is based on a sample of random vectors. The dependence is nonparametric, the distribution of the two-dimensional vector is arbitrary. The estimation of the variance of an independent variable can be discussed only in the model based on a sample of random vectors, as well as the determination coefficient as a quality criterion for the model. Time series smoothing is discussed. Methods of restoring dependencies in spaces of a general nature are considered. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the natural estimate of the dimensionality of the model is geometric, and the construction of an informative subset of features encounters the effect of "inflation coefficient correlation". Various approaches to the regression analysis of interval data are discussed. Analysis of the variety of regression analysis models leads to the conclusion that there is no single “standard model”
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06.01.01 General agriculture, crop production (agricultural sciences)
Description
The work shows the effect of the Regalis preparation on the formation and biochemical composition of organs of apple tree plants (using the Gala variety as an example). Experiments were carried out in 2016-2019. Field experiments were carried out in JSC company "Agrocomplex" named after N.I. Tkachev in the Vyselkovsky district. Planting bookmark - 2007. Tree planting scheme 4.0 × 1.0 m., Irrigation - drip. The soil of the study area is ordinary chernozem (carbonate). It was found that under the action of treatments with the Regalis preparation significant changes are recorded in the structure of fouling wood and the area of the sheet apparatus. The use of a growth regulator helps to accelerate the completion of tree growth processes. This is evidenced by a decrease in the content of IAA in the tops of shoots, by 12% in comparison with the control. The “Regalis” had a significant impact on ensuring the stable fruiting of plants of the Gala apple tree. The annual one-three-time treatment of trees with this preparation in a dose of 1.25 kg / ha provided a stable increase in yield to 14.2-16.3 kg from one tree. Moreover, on average for four years, the best results were recorded in the variant with 2-fold treatment with Regalis (16.3 kg-tree). Further analysis of the yield and commercial qualities of the obtained fruits showed that two and three-fold processing contributed to the production of fruits from 38.5 to 40.8 t / ha, which is 10-11.7 t higher than the control, while increasing the yield of marketable fruits up to 13.3 - 14.0 tons
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Description
Protection of farm animals from diseases remains one of the priority tasks for veterinary practice. A healthy animal is the key to obtaining high sanitary quality of livestock products. Among the veterinary-sanitary and organizational-economic measures carried out for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, disinfection is of particular importance. In the laboratory of veterinary and sanitary expertise of VNIIVSGE-branch of the Federal State Budget Scientific Institution Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, a new composite preparation “Hyponatum BPO” has been developed and is being tested. The studies found that the "Hyponat BPO" has a high disinfecting effect against gram-positive and gram-negative vegetative microflora, located on surfaces of various materials (wood, concrete, tile, stainless steel, plastic), both with the presence of protein protection, and without it
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05.20.01 Technologies and means of mechanization of agriculture (technical sciences)
Description
The urgent task facing the agro-industrial complex is the improvement of storage methods for agricultural products and the development of new ones. One of the actively cultivated crops, characterized by a variety of species, valuable taste and medicinal properties – grape. It is possible to provide the population with fresh grapes of high quality through the introduction of effective storage technologies that reduce losses, preserve marketable properties and biological value. One of the effective ways to preserve the quality of grapes during storage is the use of sulfur dioxide (SO2). This gas inhibits oxidative enzymes in berries, thereby reducing the rate of development of the phytopathogen Botrýtis cinérea, which causes gray rot. At the same time, it is especially important to control the rate of release of sulfur dioxide, since at the beginning of storage it is necessary to ensure the receipt of a large amount of it, which will eliminate Botrytis spores present on the surface of the berries and stabilize the existing damage. Further, during the entire period of storage of grapes, sulfur dioxide must be supplied in minimal quantities. Such dynamics of SO2 emission can be ensured by the use of two-phase generators of sulfur dioxide. The article investigated the effects of sulfur dioxide generators on the quality of grapes during storage. The study also investigates quality indicators of grapes of several varieties zoned in the Krasnodar region under long-term storage
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TO THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF N. I. VAVILOV’S RULE ON HOMOLOGICAL SERIES IN HEREDITARY VARIABILITY
06.01.05 Selection and seed production of agricultural plants (agricultural sciences)
Description
100 years ago, on June 4, 1920, 32-year-old Professor of the Saratov University Nikolai Ivanovich Vavilov (1887-1943) first reported at the III all-Russian selection Congress at the University of Saratov on his discovery of homological series in the study of parallelisms in the phenomena of hereditary variability by analogy with homological series of organic compounds. This discovery in genetics received the rank of law, the only one after the laws of G. Mendel. This major study was a further development of the genetic idea of C. Darwin on the origin of species. It showed the ways in which close species and genera of plants have a parallel formative process, because the crucial in the process of evolutionary development of living organisms – first of all, their genetic features. In cases where the development of a trait requires the joint and consistent action of many genes, the occurrence of homological series is inevitable, and this does not contradict the random variability of C. Darwin. In addition to its great genetic significance as a law of evolution, the law of homological series in hereditary variability is of great importance for botanists, plant breeders and breeders: it not only determines the place of each form in the plant world, but can also indicate to the breeder possible directions in his practical work. According to a number of geneticists and breeders, if G. Mendel discovered the rules of heredity, then N. I. Vavilov discovered the rules of variability
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05.20.01 Technologies and means of mechanization of agriculture (technical sciences)
Description
In modern combine building over the past few years, there has been a trend towards increasing the productivity of machines and, as a consequence, their physical weight. However, as the weight of the combine harvester increases, the necessary condition for its movement in the field in the course of work is to meet the requirements for its support area. As a result, manufacturers have to increase the size and number of wheels of the machine. One solution to this problem is to replace the wheelset of agricultural machines with replaceable rubber track modules. In this case, the very principle of calculation of the main technical characteristics of the engine changes, and if we are talking about the drive axles of agricultural machinery, the calculation methods can be roughly approximated to the calculation of tracked machines with metal tracks. However, in the case of driven axles, there is an intersection in the calculation methods between the classic calculation of the wheel chassis and the calculation of the tracked chassis. The problem is that the tracked chassis are not usually guided like the wheels, so the calculation methods need to be refined by introducing new evaluation criteria because of new power factors in the track module. The article proposes an alternative calculation model to calculate the maximum resistance torque of a track module on a rubber track
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TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MODELS BETWEEN THE DEFENSE AND CIVIL SECTOR OF ECONOMY
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The article considers the problem of increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures due to the transfer of military technology to the civilian sector of the economy. An analysis of foreign experience has shown that private companies are widely involved in a number of states to solve some of the infrastructure problems in the military sphere. In the USA, private companies provide communications and provide other information services to state power structures, which makes it possible to develop private business on the one hand and save budget expenses on the other. An analysis of domestic experience has shown that the use of military technologies for the production of civilian products and services in some cases can significantly save time and other resources. A model for the interaction of civilian companies with the defense complex and a diffusion model of military technologies have been developed. The article proposes creation of new structures that solve the problems of adapting military technologies to the requirements of civilian customers, as well as a database of adapted technologies and a technical investment center that supports small and medium-sized enterprises in the acquisition of equipment and technical documentation. The authors believe that the approaches proposed in the article to solving the problem of technology transfer will stimulate innovative activity in the country, reduce import dependence and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures
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05.13.10 Management in social and economic systems
Description
Geographical information systems are currently considered to be one of the most technologically advanced ways to observe natural processes. In many industries, geoinformation systems have found their application and show a positive effect from implementation. This article discusses the features of their application in the field of specially protected natural territories. The structure is given in accordance with Federal and regional legislation, as well as quantitative characteristics of specially protected natural territories of the Krasnodar region. The article also describes advantages of using geoinformation systems for specially protected natural territories
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05.13.18 Mathematical modeling, numerical methods and software complexes
Description
The article presents ways to estimate the socio-economic condition of the subjects of the Russian Federation using fuzzy production systems, discriminant analysis and neural networks. This study is based on the thirteen indicators of the socio-economic condition of the regions of the Russian Federation identified by RIA Rating rating agency. The goal of the work is to develop a software package combining the estimation methods above and allowing to get three alternative estimation options for a subject of the Russian Federation, using these thirteen indicators. The developed program assigns each region an estimation from the following set: AAA– the highest socio-economic condition, AA - very high, A– high, BBB– above average, BB– average, B– below average, CCC– low, CC– very low, C– the lowest indicators of the socio-economic conditions in the region of the Russian Federation. The software package is developed in Matlab and has an intuitive interface. The results can be used as an alternative to current methods of estimation of the socio-economic indicators
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PRODUCTIVITY OF SUGAR CORN DEPENDING ON NITROGEN FERTILIZERS
06.01.01 General agriculture, crop production (agricultural sciences)
Description
The article gives a review of the results of studying the features of the formation of sugar corn grain yield depending on the application of nitrogen mineral fertilizers used for sowing and fertilizing. The object of research was the mid-early hybrid of corn called Krasnodarsky Sakharny 280 SV (FAO 280). In the experiment, 2 factors were studied: factor Ā - sowing nitrogen fertilizer (b / ud (k), 15 and 30 kg.d.v. / ha), factor B - root nitrogen fertilizing (b / ud (k), 15 and 30 kg.dv./ha). The total area of the plot is 20 m2, the accounting area is 10 m2. The number of rows in the plot is only 4, including accounting - 2. The plots are systematically placed. In the fall, the main mineral fertilizer was applied at a dose of N30P60K60, under the main tillage - plowing to a depth of 25-27 cm. Four-fold repetition. The predecessor is winter wheat. The counts and observations in the experiment were carried out according to generally accepted methods. Studies have established that the highest yield of ears of sugar corn in milk ripeness - 14.60 and 14.71 t / ha, respectively, was obtained on options with the addition of N30 when sowing + N15 or N30 in root dressing. A further increase in the dosage of nitrogen to 60 kg.d.v./ha does not lead to an increase in yield. The highest level of profitability was obtained with the option of sowing nitrogen fertilizer at a dose of 30 kg.d.v / ha in combination with nitrogen for top dressing at a dose of 15 kg.d.v / ha (N30 + N15)
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