Federal Research Center of Virology and Microbiology
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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06.02.00 Veterinary and Husbandry
Description
The article represents the results of studying the spatial-dynamic factors and revealing the regularities of the global spread of Lumpy skin disease in cattle. The developed risk analysis and epizootological forecast provides the keeping up with a multi-year trend for the growth of epizootic tension in this disease for the period up to 2030. The highest probability of disease registration from 0.6 to 1.0 is predicted for the tropical agroecosystems of the African continent (enzootic zone) in 2018-2030. There is a real risk of disease in neighboring countries of Eurasia with the probability is less than 0.4. In the Russian Federation, outbreaks can occur in all federal districts of the country, but the highest probability of its occurrence is possible in agroecosystems of the subtropics of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts of the country
pdf 415.358kb
doc 415.358kb