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Description
The urgent problem of risks prognosis of physical persons crediting are considered and ways of set tasks decisions are offered in the article. The prognosis of credit histories on two tested groups of borrowers, data of which weren’t used under synthesis of a model; whom credits were given to and who wasn’t refused in it is carried out. Results of prognosis are analyzed with the aim to set whether tested trench is the part of that general aggregate to the concern of which the training trench used under model synthesis is representative.
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Description
Results of application of systemic-cognitive analysis to prognosis the influence of the car sell transactions on new economic indexes of the auto center and decision taking support on deliveries.
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Description
Demand to the method of statement of problem is substantiated and degree of known methods correspondence to these demands is determined, the most available method of problem decision is chosen by the substantiated criteria, the essence of chosen problem and the method of its application to decide the problem in view, including synthesis of semantic informational model and evaluation of its adequacy are described in brief as well.
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PROGNOSIS OF RISKS OF CAR INSURANCE KASKO WITH THE APPLICATION OF SYSTEMIC-COGNITIVE ANALYSIS
Description
Application of systemic-cognitive analysis and its programming set of instruments of the system “AIDOS” for synthesis of a semantic informational model, taking into account the influence of different factors on sums of insurance payments of car insurance KASKO and use of this model for prognosis of insurance payments sums is described in the article.
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Description
The results of application of systemic-cognitive analysis for prognosis of risks of traffic accidents and sums of insurance payments in the system of compulsory auto insurance are described in the article.
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Description
Prognosis of industrial results of some or other agro technologies application and support of decision taking by choice of such varieties of grains and rational agro technologies for their cultivation, which with most probability would show the given desirable industrial result in advance are cited in the article.
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
The aim of work is to get prognostic equations, taking into account the natural growth of pine forest stands of Krasnoyarsk forest-steppe along with influence of forestry arrangements and elemental factors. Dependences of weight average diameter and mean square deviation from age and plantation density were received in the article.
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SYNTHESIS OF SCORING MODEL BY THE METHOD OF SYSTEMIC-COGNITIVE ANALYSIS
Description
The urgent problem of prognosis of crediting risks of physical persons are considered and ways of set task decision are offered in the article. The possible variants of formalization of subject field are considered and there was formed the training fetch on the base of which the synthesis of scoring model by the method of systemic-cognitive analysis is conducted. The possible variants of optimization of its quality: increase of prognosis authenticity and decrease of different types of errors are considered in the article as well.
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SYNTHESIS, OPTIMIZATION, VERIFICATION OF SEMANTIC INFORMATION MODELS OF AIC OF KRASNODAR REGION
Description
Description of a stage of synthesis, optimization and verification of created semantic information models of influence of structures of produce cost price on volume of its production in AIC of Krasnodar region is cited in the article. Characteristics of synthesized models, results of adequacy, convergence and models stability were illustrated. Example of received cognitive functions and other diagrams, received in the process of prognosis task decision and decision taking support was exemplified.
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Description
Management problem of agro industrial holding is formulated in the article in general, from one hand, it is necessary to work out recommendations and adaptive model on holding management for it, and from other hand, designing of its model is difficult because of high complexity and dynamics of inner logistics of an management object, its territorially distributed and multi branch character, large amount of economic indexes, characterizing its activity on different levels of its organization. General method of formulated problem decision by means of systemic-cognitive approach is offered. First stage of model synthesis is described: cognitive structure formation of private models, entering its multi-level semantic information model.
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