08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
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PROSPECTS FOR EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The development of the city can go in two ways-extensive and intensive. Intensive involves a qualitative rethinking of the necessary work, optimization and improvement on the basis of existing infrastructure. An extensive method of development is an increase in physical volumes, for example, an increase in territories. At the moment, the transport system of the city of Krasnodar is extremely busy. The city occupies one of the first places in the number of vehicles, roads with such a traffic load cannot cope, resulting in numerous congestion on the roads. In addition, an average of 150 thousand cars enter the city every day, and this creates an additional burden on the transport system. In the morning there is a large influx of cars from the main entrances to the city. And in the evening there is no less strong loading points of entry into the city, as those who arrived in the morning leave the city. Information technology is designed to save our time and effort. At the same time, one of the problems that "eats" time is traffic jams. You can get from one place to another at one time, but subject to traffic jams, this time can increase several times. Why not use technical and software tools to solve this problem!? Now almost everyone has a smartphone, with a satnav loaded into it. There are many variations of these navigators with approximately the same functionality. But what if the satnav in your smartphone not only chose the shortest path for you, but also helped in unloading traffic throughout the city, reducing traffic congestion to a minimum?
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
In on-land and underground structures, machines and mechanisms, in many cases, we use rod structural elements made of viscoelastic materials. One of the methods for studying the strength characteristics of rods is the experimental measurement of the velocity of propagation of deformation waves in them and comparing it with theoretically accurate values of the velocity, determined taking into account the real physical and mechanical properties of the material. This comparison allows us to analyze the presence of microdefects in the rods. To assess the economic and operational reliability of building structures using mathematical modeling, we study the characteristics of nonlinear wave processes in viscoelastic rods, which can be used to improve the acoustic diagnostics of material microdefects
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
This work is devoted to revealing some opportunities of the research of a subject to modeling by a research of its model given by the ASC-analysis and the Eidos system
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
In previous works, the authors solved the problem of cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area, synthesis and verification of system-cognitive models, predicting the impact of nomenclature and sales volumes on the profit and profitability of the trading company, decision support for the selection of such nomenclature and sales volumes, which cause a given target profit and profitability of the company. This work is devoted to the study of the simulated subject area by studying its SC-model
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
We use an adaptive management system for open systems to assess the impact of investments on the results of the Agro-industrial complex
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CHARACTERIZATION OF MODELS WITH DISCOUNTING
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
Among the widely used economic-mathematical models, dynamic programming plays an important role, and among them, models with discounting. The most famous example is the model for calculating the net present value (NPV) as an estimate of the efficiency of the investment project. In the article, it is clarified which features are distinguished by models with discounting among all models of dynamic programming. In models with discounting, the comparison of plans does not change when the time of the beginning of the implementation of plans changes, ie. there is a stability of the results of comparing plans. It is proved that if the results of comparing plans for 1 and 2 steps are stable in the dynamic programming model, then this model is a model with discounting. This theorem shows that the introduction of discounted functions for the estimation of the effect is justified only in stable economic conditions in which the orderliness of managerial decisions does not change from year to year. In other words, if at the beginning of the period under consideration the first solution is better than the second, then at all other times, up to the end of the period under consideration, the first solution is better than the second. Stable economic conditions are rarely found in the modern economy with its constant changes, including those caused by innovations. Therefore, the decision to choose (to implement) an investment project from a set of possible ones can not be based solely on the calculation of discounted project performance indicators, such as net present value and internal rate of return. Such indicators can only play a supporting role. Decide on the choice of an investment project for implementation is necessary on the basis of the whole range of social, technological, environmental, economic, political factors
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STRATEGY OF RETRO INNOVATIONS IN IMPORT SUBSTITUTION
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
Unfavorable changes in exchange rates, sanctions restrictions on the supply to Russia of spare parts necessary for the repair and maintenance of previously imported equipment have led to a significant reduction in the service life of imported machinery and equipment. For the solution, the authors propose to implement the strategy of retro-innovations providing the development of new technologies maintaining in working condition of machinery and equipment in conditions of shortage of spare parts and consumables. To do this, it is necessary to develop technologies for the restoration of complex technical devices in order to extend their service life under the restrictions created by the financial market and sanctions policy. The study of the problem was carried out on the example of the operation of trucks of foreign production, the evaluation of engine life and analyzed the structure of the market. On the basis of the obtained results, a model was proposed, on the basis of which it is possible to form a plan for the production of spare parts for high-quality engine repair by domestic enterprises. The strategy of retro-innovations does not solve all the problems of import substitution, but it allows to increase the level of economic security of strategically important economic activities, it creates jobs and provides an opportunity to significantly extend the life of expensive and complex technical devices
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The article discusses the use of machine learning methods and fuzzy production systems for studying the social and economic development of urban districts, areas and settlements of the Krasnodar region. The fundamental patterns and their connection with quantitative and qualitative indicators are considered
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
To assess the impact of investments on the results of the Agro-industrial complex, we use an adaptive management system for open systems
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The instrumental methods of economics include the Monte Carlo method (statistical simulations method). It is widely used in the development, study and application of mathematical research methods in econometrics, applied statistics, organizational and economic modeling, in the development and making management decisions, in the basis of simulation modeling. The new paradigm of mathematical research methods developed by us is based on the use of the Monte Carlo method. In mathematical statistics, limit theorems on the asymptotic behavior of the considered random values were obtained for many methods of data analysis with an unlimited increase in sample volumes. The next step is to study the properties of these random values for finite sample sizes. For such a study, the Monte-Carlo method is used. In this article, we use this method to study the properties of statistical criteria for testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We considered the most used in the analysis of real data criteria - Cramer-Welch, which coincides with the equality of the sample sizes with Student's criterion; Lord, Wilcoxon (Mann-Whitney), Wolfowitz, Van der Waerden, Smirnov, type omega-square (Lehmann-Rosenblatt). The Monte Carlo method allows us to estimate the rates of convergence of distributions of criteria statistics to the limits, to compare the properties of the criteria for finite sample sizes. To use the Monte Carlo method, it is necessary to select the distribution functions of the elements of the two samples. For this purpose, normal and Weibull – Gnedenko distributions are used. The recommendation was received: to test the hypothesis of coincidence of distribution functions of two samples, it is advisable to use the Lehmann-Rosenblatt (type omega-square) test. If there is reason to assume that the distributions differ mainly by the shift, then the Wilcoxon test and Van der Waerden criteria can also be used. However, even in this case, the omega-square type test may be more powerful. In the general case, besides the Lehmann-Rosenblatt criterion, the use of the Smirnov criterion is permissible, although for this criterion the real level of significance may differ from the nominal level of significance. We sstudied the frequency of discrepancies of statistical findings on different criteria
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