08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
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TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MODELS BETWEEN THE DEFENSE AND CIVIL SECTOR OF ECONOMY
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe article considers the problem of increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures due to the transfer of military technology to the civilian sector of the economy. An analysis of foreign experience has shown that private companies are widely involved in a number of states to solve some of the infrastructure problems in the military sphere. In the USA, private companies provide communications and provide other information services to state power structures, which makes it possible to develop private business on the one hand and save budget expenses on the other. An analysis of domestic experience has shown that the use of military technologies for the production of civilian products and services in some cases can significantly save time and other resources. A model for the interaction of civilian companies with the defense complex and a diffusion model of military technologies have been developed. The article proposes creation of new structures that solve the problems of adapting military technologies to the requirements of civilian customers, as well as a database of adapted technologies and a technical investment center that supports small and medium-sized enterprises in the acquisition of equipment and technical documentation. The authors believe that the approaches proposed in the article to solving the problem of technology transfer will stimulate innovative activity in the country, reduce import dependence and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures
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BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR DATA ANALYSIS METHODS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF CLASSIFICATION TASKS)
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThere is a need to clean up the classification methods. This will increase their role in solving applied problems, in particular, in the diagnosis of materials. For this, first of all, it is necessary to develop requirements that classification methods must satisfy. The initial formulation of such requirements is the main content of this work. Mathematical classification methods are considered as part of the applied statistics methods. The natural requirements to the considered methods of data analysis and the presentation of calculation results arising from the achievements and ideas accumulated by the national probabilistic and statistical scientific school are discussed. Concrete recommendations are given on a number of issues, as well as criticism of individual errors. In particular, data analysis methods must be invariant with respect to the permissible transformations of the scales in which the data are measured, i.e. methods should be adequate in the sense of measurement theory. The basis of a specific statistical method of data analysis is always one or another probabilistic model. It should be clearly described, its premises justified - either from theoretical considerations, or experimentally. Data processing methods intended for use in real-world problems should be investigated for stability with respect to the tolerances of the initial data and model premises. The accuracy of the solutions given by the method used should be indicated. When publishing the results of statistical analysis of real data, it is necessary to indicate their accuracy (confidence intervals). As an estimate of the predictive power of the classification algorithm, it is recommended to use predictive power instead of the proportion of correct forecasts. Mathematical research methods are divided into "exploratory analysis" and "evidence-based statistics." Specific requirements for data processing methods arise in connection with their "docking" during sequential execution. The article discusses limits of applicability of probabilistic-statistical methods. Concrete statements of classification problems and typical errors when applying various methods for solving them are also considered
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionTo assess the impact of investments on the results of the Agro-industrial complex, we use an adaptive management system for open systems
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn on-land and underground structures, machines and mechanisms, in many cases, we use rod structural elements made of viscoelastic materials. One of the methods for studying the strength characteristics of rods is the experimental measurement of the velocity of propagation of deformation waves in them and comparing it with theoretically accurate values of the velocity, determined taking into account the real physical and mechanical properties of the material. This comparison allows us to analyze the presence of microdefects in the rods. To assess the economic and operational reliability of building structures using mathematical modeling, we study the characteristics of nonlinear wave processes in viscoelastic rods, which can be used to improve the acoustic diagnostics of material microdefects
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PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN STREET ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe development of a city can go in two ways -extensive and intensive. Intensive involves a qualitative rethinking of the necessary work, optimization and improvement on the basis of existing infrastructure. An extensive method of development is an increase in physical volumes, for example, an increase in territories. At the moment, the transport system of the city of Krasnodar is extremely busy. The city occupies one of the first places in the number of vehicles, roads with such a traffic load can not cope, resulting in numerous congestion on the roads. In addition, an average of 150 thousand cars enter the city every day, and this creates an additional burden on the transport system. In the morning there is a large influx of cars from the main entrances to the city. And in the evening there is no less strong loading points of entry into the city, as those who arrived in the morning leave the city. Information technology is designed to save our time and effort. At the same time, one of the problems that "eats" time is traffic jams. You can get from one place to another at one time, but subject to traffic jams, this time can increase several times. Why not use technical and software tools to solve this problem!? Now almost everyone has a smartphone, with a Navigator loaded into it. There are many variations of these navigators with approximately the same functionality. But what if the Navigator in your smartphone not only chose the shortest path for you, but also helped in unloading traffic throughout the city, reducing traffic congestion to a minimum
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PROSPECTS FOR EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe development of the city can go in two ways-extensive and intensive. Intensive involves a qualitative rethinking of the necessary work, optimization and improvement on the basis of existing infrastructure. An extensive method of development is an increase in physical volumes, for example, an increase in territories. At the moment, the transport system of the city of Krasnodar is extremely busy. The city occupies one of the first places in the number of vehicles, roads with such a traffic load cannot cope, resulting in numerous congestion on the roads. In addition, an average of 150 thousand cars enter the city every day, and this creates an additional burden on the transport system. In the morning there is a large influx of cars from the main entrances to the city. And in the evening there is no less strong loading points of entry into the city, as those who arrived in the morning leave the city. Information technology is designed to save our time and effort. At the same time, one of the problems that "eats" time is traffic jams. You can get from one place to another at one time, but subject to traffic jams, this time can increase several times. Why not use technical and software tools to solve this problem!? Now almost everyone has a smartphone, with a satnav loaded into it. There are many variations of these navigators with approximately the same functionality. But what if the satnav in your smartphone not only chose the shortest path for you, but also helped in unloading traffic throughout the city, reducing traffic congestion to a minimum?
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FINANCIAL RISK WARNING AT OIL PRODUCTION COMPANIES
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThis article is devoted to a problem of effective management of a financial and economic condition of companies on the example of the enterprises of oil products supply. We consider questions of support of adoption of management decisions which concern stabilization of a financial condition of the company and as a result of decrease in financial risks. The article also provides a description of the program complex called FESP_ON developed by the authors allowing to carry out the profound complex assessment of a financial and economic condition of Societies of oil products supply
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe instrumental methods of economics include the Monte Carlo method (statistical simulations method). It is widely used in the development, study and application of mathematical research methods in econometrics, applied statistics, organizational and economic modeling, in the development and making management decisions, in the basis of simulation modeling. The new paradigm of mathematical research methods developed by us is based on the use of the Monte Carlo method. In mathematical statistics, limit theorems on the asymptotic behavior of the considered random values were obtained for many methods of data analysis with an unlimited increase in sample volumes. The next step is to study the properties of these random values for finite sample sizes. For such a study, the Monte-Carlo method is used. In this article, we use this method to study the properties of statistical criteria for testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We considered the most used in the analysis of real data criteria - Cramer-Welch, which coincides with the equality of the sample sizes with Student's criterion; Lord, Wilcoxon (Mann-Whitney), Wolfowitz, Van der Waerden, Smirnov, type omega-square (Lehmann-Rosenblatt). The Monte Carlo method allows us to estimate the rates of convergence of distributions of criteria statistics to the limits, to compare the properties of the criteria for finite sample sizes. To use the Monte Carlo method, it is necessary to select the distribution functions of the elements of the two samples. For this purpose, normal and Weibull – Gnedenko distributions are used. The recommendation was received: to test the hypothesis of coincidence of distribution functions of two samples, it is advisable to use the Lehmann-Rosenblatt (type omega-square) test. If there is reason to assume that the distributions differ mainly by the shift, then the Wilcoxon test and Van der Waerden criteria can also be used. However, even in this case, the omega-square type test may be more powerful. In the general case, besides the Lehmann-Rosenblatt criterion, the use of the Smirnov criterion is permissible, although for this criterion the real level of significance may differ from the nominal level of significance. We sstudied the frequency of discrepancies of statistical findings on different criteria
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn their previous works, the authors solved the problem of cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area, as well as the synthesis and verification of system-cognitive models. This work is devoted to the problem of forecasting the impact of the nomenclature and sales volumes on the profit and profitability of a trading company
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionTraditionally, control decisions are made by solving repeatedly the forecasting problem for different values of control factors and choosing a combination of them that ensures the transfer of the control object to the target state. However, real control objects are affected by hundreds or thousands of control factors, each of which can have dozens of values. A complete search of all possible combinations of values of control factors leads to the need to solve the problem of forecasting tens or hundreds of thousands or even millions of times to make a single decision, and this is completely unacceptable in practice. Therefore, we need a decision-making method that does not require significant computing resources. Thus, there is a contradiction between the actual and the desired, a contradiction between them, which is the problem to be solved in the work. In this work, we propose a developed algorithm for decision-making by solving the inverse forecasting problem once (automated SWOT analysis), using the results of cluster-constructive analysis of the target states of the control object and the values of factors and a single solution of the forecasting problem. This determines the relevance of the topic. The purpose of the work is to solve the problem. By decomposing the goal, we have formulated the following tasks, which are the stages of achieving the goal: cognitive-target structuring of the subject area; formalization of the subject area (development of classification and descriptive scales and gradations and formation of a training sample); synthesis, verification and increasing the reliability of the model of the control object; forecasting, decision-making and research of the control object by studying its model. The study uses the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools (the intelligent system called "Eidos") as a method for solving the set tasks. As a result of the work, we propose a developed decision-making algorithm, which is applicable in intelligent control systems. The main conclusion of the work is that the proposed approach has successfully solved the problem