name
Kymratova Alfira Menligulovna
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
—
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
• Karachaevo-Circassian state technological academy
Доцент
Research interests
-
Web site url
Current rating (overall rating of articles)
0
TOP5 co-authors
Articles count: 16
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ
-
Description
The present study was carried out in the view of the fact that there is no more or less complete theory of time series prediction memory to date. This determines the urgency and necessity of the development of new mathematical methods and algorithms to detect possible potential predictability of the series with the memory and the construction of adequate predictive models. Classical methods of forecasting economic time series are based on the mathematical apparatus of econometrics. It is carried out basing on the assumption that the observations that make up the projected time series are independent, whereby to perform the necessary subordination of the normal law. The latter, however, is the exception rather than the rule for economic time series that have so-called long-term memory. Toolkit implementations of nonlinear dynamics were the new computer technology that made it possible to study complex phenomena and processes “on the display screen”. The proposed approach differs from the classical methods of forecasting by the implementation of a new accounting trends (evolution of centers and the size of a bounding box), and is a new tool (phase portraits) to identify the cyclical components of the considered time series
-
RESEARCH "PLATFORM" OF SYNERGISTIC PREDICTION
DescriptionThe lack of a unified research platform and tools for various sectors of Russian economy, allowing to take into account the specifics of the object of study, significantly slows down and complicates the decisionmaking processes, at the same time thereby reducing their efficiency, which is even more negative in terms of the need of quick decisions of the tasks on import substitution. Scientific essence of the proposed research can be formulated in the form of innovative unified research platform, showing the interrelated causal system components, theoretical and practical, analytical and experimental units, productive activities which are scientifically proven smart products for various sectors of the Russian economy. The constantly changing economic environment makes to answer its idempotent mathematics and information paradigm, theory, methodology. Here it is important to select the structure and rationale of the proposed research mathematical "platform". A new, different but mutually complementary multi-criteria approaches, a set of economic-mathematical models and modern mathematical and instrumental constructs, monitoring, comparison, and generalization of the results is needed. In the article it is shown that the proposed use of instrumentation and mathematical methods represent essentially new base for forecasting of discrete evolutionary processes
-
STUDY OF SEASONAL TREND-PROCESS WITH THE METHOD OF CLASSICAL STATISTICS
DescriptionThis work is devoted to the methods of multicriteria optimization and classical statistics of obtaining pre-estimated information for time series that have long-term memory, which is why their levels do not satisfy the independence property, and therefore the classical prediction methods may be inadequate. The developed methods of obtaining such information are based on classical statistics methods such as mathematical statistics, multicriteria optimization and extreme value theory. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been demonstrated on the example of specific time series of volumes of mountain rivers
-
05.13.18 Mathematical modeling, numerical methods and software complexes
DescriptionIn the process of formation of nonlinear dynamics, the scientific society was able to refute the classical mechanisms of Newton-Laplace by justifying the chaotic nature of the phenomena of the world. However, despite the emergence of new mathematical models and tools, forecasting of nonlinear systems is a difficult task, as not only the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the factors affecting the system are unknown, but also there is a problem of a small amount of information for forecasting. In this article, the authors consider the linear cellular apparatus as a tool for prediction the final state, to which the system will come based only on its output indicators of previous years. Since the use of a linear cellular automaton for prediction of nonlinear systems is an assumption of the authors, it should be tested on the series of stochastic systems exposed to different risk factors, which together give either a positive response of the system or a negative one. An example of such series is the time series of yields, as it is affected by climatic conditions, the appearance of which, in turn, is also difficult to predict. Prediction of stochastic systems using linear cellular automaton really makes it possible to get adequate and visual models. Due to the fact that the forecast model has a discrepancy with the real result of 0-15% (both positive and negative), the conclusion is that the predicted value will help either to take measures to ensure that the real value in the future is not lower, or to make sure that the decisions and measures taken are correct, when a value is higher than the forecast
-
THE IMPACT OF SEASONAL AND EVENT COMPONENT ON PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF TOURIST FLOWS
DescriptionThe article discusses the impact of seasonal and event-component time series to assess the predictive performance of the tourist flow in Dombay village in the Karachay-Cherkessia Republic
-
ANALYTICAL TOOLS OF VECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET
DescriptionIn rapidly changing conditions of the modern world, analysts and decision makers are in need to use new formal means of analysis and evaluation of alternatives problems. This work is dedicated to the development of such tools. The article presents a detailed analysis and technical and economic characteristics of the subject area - the financial market and its specific components - the value of a time series of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and two kinds of exchange rates: EUR / RUB, USD / RUB. The authors have proposed a 5-criteria economic-mathematical model of the main components of the ranking of the financial market. The authors argue the impossibility of using a single integrated set of criteria for the replacement of the criteria or the use of criteria convolution procedures as the standard procedure of solving the problem of multi-criteria optimization. It demonstrates that such criteria as criteria for "risk" must be considered as an estimate of the degree of deviation from the expected value of the possible values of this criterion. The practical significance of the results is determined by the fact that the main points, conclusions, recommendations, models and methods can be used in order to improve the management and planning of development strategies of banking systems, trading platforms, as well as by developers of information and analytical systems to support management decisionmaking