name
Semionova Inna Mikhailovna
Scholastic degree
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
• Voronezh State Agrarian University
старший преподаватель кафедры Информационного обеспечения и моделирования агроэкономических систем
Research interests
Реализация экономических интересов сельского населения, развитие системы информационного обеспечения управления предприятиями АПК
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Articles count: 1
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FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT OF RURAL POPULATION IN THE VORONEZH REGION
Description
The article examines methodological provisions accounting for the development of methodologies for the foundation of agricultural activity assumption at the regional level. The article also describes the content of this methodology and the stages of its development (development and realization of economic and mathematical model for optimization of sectoral structure of regional agricultural sector, definition of sectoral structure of agricultural sector when macroeconomic conditions are improved (optimistic scenario) and when they are declined (pessimistic scenario); substantiation of need in regular and seasonable employees in agricultural organizations and farm households according to each of the scenarios above; identification of the level of population’s self-employment in farm households on the basis of changes in demographic structure of rural population and their labour activity). The article indicates the fact that method of exponential smoothing with dampen trend have been used for substantiation of restriction volumes of crop acres and livestock number according to each way of development and households of various types, the results of prediction calculations for agricultural organizations, farm households and households of population are supplied according to inertial, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, forecast of rural population employment in agricultural organizations and farm sector and self-employment in farm households as well have been done, the results of assessment of opportunities for growth non-agricultural employment of population, made upon the basis of survey of 40 heads of rural settlements of the Voronezh region. Furthermore the conclusions about prospective changes of level of rural population employment from the stand point of broaden options of their economic interest realizations are supplied
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