Karachaevo-Circassian state technological academy
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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STABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SECTOR: COMPLEX OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS
DescriptionTools and mathematical methods offered for usage represent essentially new base for forecasting of discrete evolutionary processes. Authors represent complete system of models and methods of temporary ranks’ with memory forecasting
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ACCURATE FORECAST AS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC RISK OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
DescriptionThis article discusses the ways of reducing the financial, economic and social risks on the basis of an accurate prediction. We study the importance of natural time series of winter wheat yield, minimum winter, winter-spring daily temperatures. The feature of the time series of this class is disobeying a normal distribution, there is no visible trend
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Description
In the article the forecasting model which is based on the theory of cellular automatic machines and mathematical apparatus of indistinct sets is presented. Its work on the real data of time number productivities of sugar beet in Mostovskoy area of Krasnodar territory is shown
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PROGNOSTIC RESEARCH ON THE NATURAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES
DescriptionThe increase in volume of processed data and the rapid development of environmental monitoring, modeling, forecasting, analysis, visualization, prediction in modern conditions is connected with the consistent increase in their level of formalization. The bases for all this are requirements of significantly changed stochastics natural and economic processes. A new method of nonlinear dynamics, namely the method of sequential R/S-analysis is proposed. In the article, the authors paid attention to the method of fractal analysis of time series. The founder of fractal analysis is a British hydrologist H.E Hurst. He showed that natural phenomena such as river flows, rainfall, temperature, solar activity is followed by «biased random walk», i.e. trend with noise. The noise level and trend resistance are estimated in change in the normalized amplitude levels of the time series for the expiration time, or, in other words, how they entered a quantity called the Hurst exponent exceeds the value of 0.5. Rather essential information is a cyclical component to forecast. Thus, there is a need for further study of natural and economic processes based on the new mathematical models. These methods bring to forecast new useful methodological elements that are not in continuous methodology, concepts such as «noise color» persistence and anti-persistent series, Hurst, «long-term memory», R/S-trajectory and the trajectory of the Hurst exponent, etc.
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PREDICTION OF A FINANCIAL MARKET EVOLUTION ON THE BASE OF SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR LINEAR CELLULAR AUTOMAT
DescriptionThe work used methods of system analysis, monographic, structural and logical, economic-statistical, mathematical continuous and discrete, settlement and constructive methods as well as software tools of linear cellular automata. Usage of each method was based on their functionality, thus ensuring the accuracy of the findings and scientific positions. In this article we attempt to predict the dynamic behavior of the financial market elements, to use on the basis of a linear cellular automaton computer tools and methods of nonlinear science for adequate numerical reflection measure various risks, primarily financial and economic risks, as well as to show the power of computer graphics, computer mathematics system linear cellular automata, to emphasize an important philosophical role of visualization. The authors of the work programmed linear cellular automaton based on Python 2.7 software platform in the form of application. The program validates the predictive model on the adequacy of the selected coloring, is forecast error and builds polygons predictive model and input data on the same graph. The proposed research area is relevant to the processes in the financial and economic system, bringing in useful innovative elements in the generalized forecast that do not exist in continuous classical methodology
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Description
Development of monitoring of the behavior of financial market, simulation, analysis, visualization, prediction in modern conditions is connected with a consistent increase in their level of formalization. The basis for this process is the requirements of significantly changed (in the direction of increasing) stochastics, turbulence, volatility, financial and economic processes. Particular relevance in the analysis of behavior of economic time series elements of the financial market is now becoming more systematic development of diverse, interdependent and mutually complementary economic and mathematical models. The models are linked, they are operating on the same source material, and their selection has improved the representativeness of the algorithms of modern economic processes of the financial market, which is important for transformational (transitional) market economies. In the article it is shown that the proposed usage of instrumentation and mathematical methods represent essentially new base for forecasting of discrete evolutionary processes
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SUBSTANTIATION OF A BUSINESS IDEA TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECURRENCE OF SERVICES’ DEVELOPMENT
DescriptionIn the article, theoretical and methodical approaches of the research of cyclic regularities of the development of systems on a services sector example depending on a stage of life cycle in a context of evolution of business idea are considered. The possibility of using quite universal techniques of forecasting of the efficiency of introduction of a business idea taking into account the cycles of a business idea is proved
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METHODS OF CLASSICAL STATISTICS IN STUDYING THE DEGREE OF "RISKINESS" OF TREND-SEASONAL PROCESSES
DescriptionThe article studies the degree of "riskiness" of natural time series, which are inherent properties of the seasonal trend. The authors have made an analysis the result of which is the effect relationship between weather conditions and the dynamics of the behavior of the monthly volumes of mountain rivers
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING AND PREDICTING THE BEHAVIOR OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
DescriptionThis article proposes a modification and training the Cellular Automaton predictive model. The author presents a modified system of models and methods for time series prediction with memory based on the theory of fuzzy sets and linear cellular automata
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METHODS OF WAVELET ANALYSIS AS A TOOL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY
DescriptionIn the context of the objective existence of risk and economic, human and other losses related with it, there is a need in a specific mechanism, which would allow the best way to predict the damage caused by the emergency. These risk management tools in emergency situations are monitoring and forecasting. In this research work, time series are used as a signal; they contain information about the number of fires in the Karachayevo-Cherkessia in the period of 1983- 2014. In solving the problem, the authors applied wavelet tools for data cleaning from noise, anomalies that have provided quality model building reliable forecast - possible number of fires in one quarter ahead. This example shows that for the construction of this forecast there is no need for a rigorous mathematical model specification, which is especially valuable in the analysis of poorly formalized processes. We have noted that most of the tasks in emergencies fall into this category of processes