Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe consider the methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used types of tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. The goal - to choose the most effective tool. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as appointments to senior positions. The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article
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Description
The practice of separate financing of projects of civil and defensive nature, which has been developed in Russia, requires, in the conditions of an aggravation of an international situation, increase in costs for carrying out researches and developments what to go a heavy burden on the federal budget. The analysis of international experience shows that industrially developed countries successfully solved this problem by means of distribution of dual-use technologies. The special effect is reached in space activities where dual-use technologies are widely used in the organization of communication, broadcasting and monitoring of the land surface. In the article, policy of usage of military technologies in civil sector of economy of the USA, Germany and China is analyzed. The policy of distribution of dual-use technologies leads to decrease in load of the budget and promotes attraction of a private equity in researches and developments. The main directions are conversion, sale of information from military companions to the commercial organizations and acquisition by military of information from commercial companions here. Backwardness of the market relations, impracticality of controlling mechanisms, developments and carrying out scientific and technical policy and other problems can become the main obstacle in a way to distribution of dual-use technologies in Russia. However, instability of the revenues of the Russian budget caused by volatility of the prices of energy resources and other external factors puts the most important priority of national economic policy development and distribution of double technologies
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionFuzzy sets are the special form of objects of nonnumeric nature. Therefore, in the processing of the sample, the elements of which are fuzzy sets, a variety of methods for the analysis of statistical data of any nature can be used - the calculation of the average, non-parametric density estimators, construction of diagnostic rules, etc. We have told about the development of our work on the theory of fuzziness (1975 - 2015). In the first of our work on fuzzy sets (1975), the theory of random sets is regarded as a generalization of the theory of fuzzy sets. In non-fiction series "Mathematics. Cybernetics" (publishing house "Knowledge") in 1980 the first book by a Soviet author fuzzy sets is published - our brochure "Optimization problems and fuzzy variables". This book is essentially a "squeeze" our research of 70-ies, ie, the research on the theory of stability and in particular on the statistics of objects of non-numeric nature, with a bias in the methodology. The book includes the main results of the fuzzy theory and its note to the random set theory, as well as new results (first publication!) of statistics of fuzzy sets. On the basis of further experience, you can expect that the theory of fuzzy sets will be more actively applied in organizational and economic modeling of industry management processes. We discuss the concept of the average value of a fuzzy set. We have considered a number of statements of problems of testing statistical hypotheses on fuzzy sets. We have also proposed and justified some algorithms for restore relationships between fuzzy variables; we have given the representation of various variants of fuzzy cluster analysis of data and variables and described some methods of collection and description of fuzzy data
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionAdequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI
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MOVING FORWARD TO ARISTOTLE: WE MUST BE FREE FROM THE PERVERSIONS OF ECONOMIC THEORY
DescriptionThe founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions. What can replace the "market economy"? We are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article describes the main provisions of solidary information economy, intended to replace the market economy as a management tool. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle
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RUSSIAN SCIENTIFIC SCHOOL IN THE ECONOMETRICS FIELD
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have considered the formation of the Russian scientific school in the field of econometrics, obtained its obtained scientific results, the possibilities of their use in solving problems of the economy, the organization of production and controlling of industrial companies and organizations, as well as in teaching. As econometrics we consider a scientific and an academic discipline devoted to the development and application of statistical methods to study economic phenomena and processes, in short, statistical methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the works by the author of this publication from the beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics. However, in this article we consider only the works, in the titles of which we can see the word of "econometrics". In our country the term "econometrics" has become popular since the mid 90s. However, many publications and training courses are still developed in the western outdated paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm of mathematical methods of economics, the new paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian science school in the field of econometrics operates within the scientific school in the field of probability theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N. Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods. It is necessary to examine the main results of Russian scientific schools in the field of econometrics. We present the information on the institutional design of national scientific schools in econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the Institute of High Technologies statistics and econometrics
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Description
The article describes a new approach to the assessment of the economic system. The authors propose to assume that the system grows, if its share in the world production increases. For the qualitative assessment, we have offered to analyze the dynamics of growth of exports of products with high benefit to the foreign countries, which include engineering goods, defense, manufacturing materials. On the world market of hightech products, we have the stiff competition and the growth of exports of domestic products with high benefit indicates high level of innovation. Based on the analysis of available statistical data, we revealed a correlation between exports of innovative products, the volumes of financing research and development and foreign direct investment in the national economy. It was determined foreign capital has a negative impact on exports of products with high benefit. The authors proposed a two-factor regression model, which allows you to make short-term forecasts and allocate resources. The study showed that despite the ongoing economic sanctions and unsuccessful economic reforms in the past, Russia has a high potential for innovation, which is activated when reducing the influence of foreign capital. Attempts to isolate the Russian economic system led to the mobilization of resources and the growth of innovation activity of domestic business
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DEVELOPMENT OF SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY
DescriptionWe are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article summarizes the first phase of work on the solidary information economy. We have analyzed the array of publications. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle
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METHODS OF REDUCING SPACE DIMENSION OF STATISTICAL DATA
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionOne of the "points of growth" of applied statistics is methods of reducing the dimension of statistical data. They are increasingly used in the analysis of data in specific applied research, such as sociology. We investigate the most promising methods to reduce the dimensionality. The principal components are one of the most commonly used methods to reduce the dimensionality. For visual analysis of data are often used the projections of original vectors on the plane of the first two principal components. Usually the data structure is clearly visible, highlighted compact clusters of objects and separately allocated vectors. The principal components are one method of factor analysis. The new idea of factor analysis in comparison with the method of principal components is that, based on loads, the factors breaks up into groups. In one group of factors, new factor is combined with a similar impact on the elements of the new basis. Then each group is recommended to leave one representative. Sometimes, instead of the choice of representative by calculation, a new factor that is central to the group in question. Reduced dimension occurs during the transition to the system factors, which are representatives of groups. Other factors are discarded. On the use of distance (proximity measures, indicators of differences) between features and extensive class are based methods of multidimensional scaling. The basic idea of this class of methods is to present each object as point of the geometric space (usually of dimension 1, 2, or 3) whose coordinates are the values of the hidden (latent) factors which combine to adequately describe the object. As an example of the application of probabilistic and statistical modeling and the results of statistics of non-numeric data, we justify the consistency of estimators of the dimension of the data in multidimensional scaling, which are proposed previously by Kruskal from heuristic considerations. We have considered a number of consistent estimations of dimension of models (in regression analysis and in theory of classification). We also give some information about the algorithms for reduce the dimensionality in the automated system-cognitive analysis
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RISKS AND PRIORITIES OF THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL SPACE-ROCKET INDUSTRY
DescriptionBased on risk analysis and consequences of the accidents which have happened to the space equipment from the moment of the beginning of an active phase of space activity, the authors have come to a conclusion that initial stages of life cycle of the project, namely start and a conclusion to an orbit of artificial Earth satellites are subject to the greatest risks. Further functioning of the spacecraft in an orbit is accompanied by much smaller risks, and the least risky are works on service of land infrastructure, processing and information transfer to consumers. Methods of economic protection, which provide acceptance or transfer for a certain payment of risks are not always acceptable for an initial stage of the space project – start and removal into a satellite orbit. Authors suggest evading whenever possible from similar risks for what it is necessary to reduce starts for the benefit of foreign customers. The research of structure of the world space market has shown that such kinds of activity as production of land space infrastructure and rendering services of satellite communication and broadcasting are the most demanded. The market of starting services is gradually reduced in connection with miniaturization of the equipment of satellites and high specific risks of start. The policy of Roskosmos is focused generally on preservation of leadership in starting services which differ in high risks, to the detriment of creation of own satellite group capable to render a wide range of space services to foreign partners. Change of reference points of the strategy of development of the domestic spacerocket industry towards highly profitable and least risky types of space activity is offered