Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe relationship of Mathematical Statistics (wider - Mathematical methods of research) and history is multifaceted. In our opinion, the history of mathematical statistics is an integral part of this mathematical discipline. We have given a review of our works on the history of statistical methods. The role of mathematical statistics for the history is very important. In this article, we restrict ourselves to the questions of chronology. For centuries, the chronology is considered as a part of applied mathematics. The main problem is that the whole "common" concept of the Russian and the World history as a whole presented in textbooks was faked by the opponents of Russia after the collapse of the global Empire (Russian kingdom) in the early 17th century - 400 years ago. The stories about historical events are the information weapon. It was used by the new rulers to suppress the resistance of the vanquished. A new mathematical and statistical chronology of general and Russian history, which was built by a scientific team led by Academician Fomenko, has been helpful for the discussion about the current economic and political problems of relations between Russia and the West in the XXI century. In our opinion, the new chronology of the World and Russian history should be one of the foundations of state-patriotic ideology and deriving practical solutions. The purpose of this article is to give the initial idea of the new chronology from this point of view
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Description
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the development of controlling of organizational and economic methods, including forecasting tools, the development and management of decision-making, and others. Controlling service is central to the development and implementation of organizational and economic methods to achieve the goals set by management. However, quite often the controlling service has a different name, justified by the history of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we begin with a discussion of the content of the terms "controlling" and especially "Controlling organizational and economic methods". We discuss the role of "controlling service" in the management of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial and municipal entities. As an example of the controlling instrument of organizational and economic methods is considered an automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents, the use in this system the expert technologies and quantitative risk estimation methods. We consider this system as a controlling tool in the management of safety, while customers and performers do not use the term "controlling" in the official documentation of this project. In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the executive power is the indicator "estimate the population of the executive authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of strategic management of regional and municipal entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of solidary information economy (the former name - the informal information economy of the future), developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas of solidary information economy. However, the term "controlling" is not always used in relation to this subject. The same applies to researches related to organizational and economic modeling of innovation and development of innovative systems
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APPLIED STATISTICS – THE STATE AND THE PROSPECTS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionApplied Statistics - the science of how to analyze the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical area it develops very quickly. It includes numerous widely and deeply developed scientific directions. Those who use the applied statistics and other statistical methods, usually focused on specific areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical analysis of the current state of applied statistics and discuss trends in the development of statistical methods. Most of the practical importance of applied statistics justifies the usefulness of the work on the development of its methodology, in which the field of scientific and applied activities would be considered as a whole. We have given some brief information about the history of applied statistics. Based on Scientometrics of Applied Statistics we state that each expert has only a small part of accumulated knowledge in this area. We discuss five topical areas in which modern applied statistics develops, ie five "points of growth": nonparametric, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of non-numerical data. We discuss some details of the basic ideas of a non-numerical statistics. In the last more than 60 years in Russia, there has been a huge gap between official statistics and the scientific community of experts on statistical methods
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THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING
DescriptionThe article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decision-making, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decision-making in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four experts-theorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager - the basis of management
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SYSTEM PARADIGM AS THE BASIS OF CREATION OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX CONTROLLING SERVICE
DescriptionSystem paradigm is discussed conformably to functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity became the general platform of fundamental and applied, scientific and practical elaborations and projects. Now in the sphere of system researches surge of interest in questions of classification is observed. Apparently, it is connected with accumulation of results of private researches in all areas of this discipline and with inevitable transdisciplinary crossings of their practical applications. So, undoubted intervention of high technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on coordination of actions of developers of various subject domains. On the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection
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THE DIVERSITY OF CONTROLLING DOMAINS AND INSTRUMENTS
DescriptionIn modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area - it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas - controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe instrumental methods of economics include the Monte Carlo method (statistical simulations method). It is widely used in the development, study and application of mathematical research methods in econometrics, applied statistics, organizational and economic modeling, in the development and making management decisions, in the basis of simulation modeling. The new paradigm of mathematical research methods developed by us is based on the use of the Monte Carlo method. In mathematical statistics, limit theorems on the asymptotic behavior of the considered random values were obtained for many methods of data analysis with an unlimited increase in sample volumes. The next step is to study the properties of these random values for finite sample sizes. For such a study, the Monte-Carlo method is used. In this article, we use this method to study the properties of statistical criteria for testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We considered the most used in the analysis of real data criteria - Cramer-Welch, which coincides with the equality of the sample sizes with Student's criterion; Lord, Wilcoxon (Mann-Whitney), Wolfowitz, Van der Waerden, Smirnov, type omega-square (Lehmann-Rosenblatt). The Monte Carlo method allows us to estimate the rates of convergence of distributions of criteria statistics to the limits, to compare the properties of the criteria for finite sample sizes. To use the Monte Carlo method, it is necessary to select the distribution functions of the elements of the two samples. For this purpose, normal and Weibull – Gnedenko distributions are used. The recommendation was received: to test the hypothesis of coincidence of distribution functions of two samples, it is advisable to use the Lehmann-Rosenblatt (type omega-square) test. If there is reason to assume that the distributions differ mainly by the shift, then the Wilcoxon test and Van der Waerden criteria can also be used. However, even in this case, the omega-square type test may be more powerful. In the general case, besides the Lehmann-Rosenblatt criterion, the use of the Smirnov criterion is permissible, although for this criterion the real level of significance may differ from the nominal level of significance. We sstudied the frequency of discrepancies of statistical findings on different criteria
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STRATEGY OF RETRO INNOVATIONS IN IMPORT SUBSTITUTION
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionUnfavorable changes in exchange rates, sanctions restrictions on the supply to Russia of spare parts necessary for the repair and maintenance of previously imported equipment have led to a significant reduction in the service life of imported machinery and equipment. For the solution, the authors propose to implement the strategy of retro-innovations providing the development of new technologies maintaining in working condition of machinery and equipment in conditions of shortage of spare parts and consumables. To do this, it is necessary to develop technologies for the restoration of complex technical devices in order to extend their service life under the restrictions created by the financial market and sanctions policy. The study of the problem was carried out on the example of the operation of trucks of foreign production, the evaluation of engine life and analyzed the structure of the market. On the basis of the obtained results, a model was proposed, on the basis of which it is possible to form a plan for the production of spare parts for high-quality engine repair by domestic enterprises. The strategy of retro-innovations does not solve all the problems of import substitution, but it allows to increase the level of economic security of strategically important economic activities, it creates jobs and provides an opportunity to significantly extend the life of expensive and complex technical devices
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PRICING METHOD BASED ON THE ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FUNCTION
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionWhen solving some problems of economics and management at an enterprise, it becomes necessary to determine the retail price of a product or service at a known wholesale price or producer price. We offer to determine the retail price based on an analysis of a survey of potential consumers about the maximum possible price for the product or service in question. We calculate the retail price on the basis of optimizing the economic effect equal to the product of the result from the sale of one unit of goods by the demand function, which we estimate by interviewing consumers. To solve the optimization problem, we approximate the demand function using the least squares method. As examples, the linear and power models of the demand function are analyzed. Ways of further development of the proposed approach are discussed. Unresolved scientific problems are formulated. Methods for estimating the demand function in the context of a large number of repetitions of respondents and their tendency to “round numbers” require further elaboration, as a result of which the Kolmogorov criterion cannot be used to determine the accuracy of the restoration of the demand function. Various parametric and non-parametric approaches of regression analysis should be adapted to the problem of restoring the dependence of demand on price, as well as methods for solving the corresponding optimization problems
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NON-NUMERICAL DATA STATISTICS IS A CENTRAL PART OF MODERN APPLIED STATISTICS
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn 1979, non-numerical data statistics was singled out as an independent area of applied statistics. Initially, the term "statistics of objects of non-numerical nature" was used to denote this area of mathematical methods of economics. Our basic non-numeric statistics textbook is called "Non-Numeric Statistics". Non-numerical data statistics is one of the four main areas of applied statistics (along with number statistics, multidimensional statistical analysis, statistics of time series and random processes). Statistics of non-numerical data are divided into statistics in spaces of a general nature and sections devoted to specific types of non-numerical data (statistics of interval data, statistics of fuzzy sets, statistics of binary relations, etc.). Currently, statistics in spaces of a general nature is the central part of applied statistics, and non-numeric data statistics including it is the main area of applied statistics. This statement is confirmed, in particular, by the analysis of publications in the section "Mathematical Research Methods" of the journal "Industrial Laboratory. Diagnostics of Materials" - the main place of publication of russian studies on applied statistics. This article is devoted to the analysis of the basic ideas of non-numerical data statistics against the background of the development of applied statistics from the perspective of a new paradigm of mathematical research methods. Various types of non-numeric data are described. The historical path of statistical science is analyzed. We have discussed the development of statistics of non-numerical data. The article analyzes basic ideas of statistics in spaces of a general nature: average values, laws of large numbers, extreme statistical problems, nonparametric estimates of the probability density, classification methods (diagnostics and cluster analysis), statistics of the integral type. Some statistical methods for analyzing data lying in specific spaces of non-numeric nature are briefly considered: non-parametric statistics (real distributions usually differ significantly from normal), statistics of fuzzy sets, theory of expert estimates (the Kemeny median is a sample average of expert orderings), etc. We have also discussed some unsolved problems in statistics of nonnumeric data