Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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ABOUT THE NEW PARADIGM OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF RESEARCH
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was represented by a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management. We consider it necessary to develop organizational and economic support for solving specific application area, such as the space industry, start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods. The same requirements apply to the teaching of the respective disciplines. In the development of curricula and working programs, we must be based on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. In this study, we present the basic information about a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. We start with a brief formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in this article focuses primarily on the scientific field of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economy", including organizational and economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the basic concepts. We talk about the development of a new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical methods of research. We give information about the educational literature, prepared in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of researches
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NONPARAMETRIC KERNEL ESTIMATORS OF PROBABILITY DENSITY IN THE DISCRETE SPACES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionSome estimators of the probability density function in spaces of arbitrary nature are used for various tasks in statistics of non-numerical data. Systematic exposition of the theory of such estimators has been started in our articles [3, 4]. This article is a direct continuation of these works [3, 4]. We will regularly use references to conditions and theorems of the articles [3, 4], in which introduced several types of nonparametric estimators of the probability density. We have studied linear estimators. In this article, we consider particular cases - kernel density estimates in discrete spaces. When estimating the density of the one-dimensional random variable, kernel estimators become the Parzen-Rosenblatt estimators. Under different conditions, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of kernel density estimators. We have introduced the concept of "preferred rate differences" and are studied nuclear density estimators based on it. We have introduced and studied natural affinity measures which are used in the analysis of the asymptotic behavior of kernel density estimators. Kernel density estimates are considered for sequences of spaces with measures. We give the conditions under which the difference between the densities of probability distributions and of the mathematical expectations of their nuclear estimates uniformly tends to 0. Is established the uniform convergence of the variances. We find the conditions on the kernel functions, in which take place these theorems about uniform convergence. As examples, there are considered the spaces of fuzzy subsets of finite sets and the spaces of all subsets of finite sets. We give the condition to support the use of kernel density estimation in finite spaces. We discuss the counterexample of space of rankings in which the application of kernel density estimators can not be correct
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe consider an approach to the transition from continuous to discrete scale which was defined by means of step of quantization (i.e. interval of grouping). Applied purpose is selecting the number of gradations in sociological questionnaires. In accordance with the methodology of the general stability theory, we offer to choose a step so that the errors, generated by the quantization, were of the same order as the errors inherent in the answers of respondents. At a finite length of interval of the measured value change of the scale this step of quantization uniquely determines the number of gradations. It turns out that for many issues gated it is enough to point 3 - 6 answers gradations (hints). On the basis of the probabilistic model we have proved three theorems of quantization. They are allowed to develop recommendations on the choice of the number of gradations in sociological questionnaires. The idea of "quantization" has applications not only in sociology. We have noted, that it can be used not only to select the number of gradations. So, there are two very interesting applications of the idea of "quantization" in inventory management theory - in the two-level model and in the classical Wilson model taking into account deviations from it (shows that "quantization" can use as a way to improve stability). For the two-level inventory management model we proved three theorems. We have abandoned the assumption of Poisson demand, which is rarely carried out in practice, and we give generally fairly simple formulas for finding the optimal values of the control parameters, simultaneously correcting the mistakes of predecessors. Once again we see the interpenetration of statistical methods that have arisen to analyze data from a variety of subject areas, in this case, from sociology and logistics. We have another proof that the statistical methods - single scientificpractical area that is inappropriate to share by areas of applications
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TESTING OF HOMOGENEITY OF PAIRED SAMPLES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article begins with the letter of the chief engineer of chemical plant near Moscow. He requests to analyze of data by means of modern statistical methods and give an opinion on the presence (or absence) of the relationship between the two methods of determining the viscosity of the mastic. For each of the batches of mastic It was presented two numbers - the viscosity measurement results of the two methods. These numbers form two paired samples. We want to install, give whether two specific methods similar results. The true values of viscosity in different batches are not equal. Their difference is not allows us to combine the results of the first measurement method in first sample, the results of the second method - in the second sample, as we can do in the case of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. For solutions to this problem we discuss four statistical criterions, based on a study of the differences between corresponding values in two paired samples. We test the hypothesis of equality 0 of median of these differences (sign test) and of equality 0 of the mathematical expectation of these differences. Hypothesis of testing of equality of the distribution functions of two paired samples is reduced to the hypothesis of symmetry of the distribution function of these differences with respect to 0. In the alternative of the shift is proposed to use the Wilcoxon signed rank criterion. In the total alternative is proposed to use criterion of the omega-square type which is developed by the author of this article
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THE DIVERSITY OF CONTROLLING DOMAINS AND INSTRUMENTS
DescriptionIn modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area - it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas - controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling
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STATISTICAL MODELS IN MEDICINE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article is devoted to the discussion of the organization of clinical-statistical studies and experiments. We have considered the examples of the application of statistical methods in scientific medical research. Under the clinical-statistical research we understand specially organized collection and analysis of medical data about the course of disease in patients, research of the dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic effects. We study one, two or more groups of individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are drawn on the whole group, but not for each individual patient. The purpose of research - to transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical study focused on the production of useful recommendations concerning those patients who fall into the field of view of doctors after the end of the study. There are two main types of research - prospective and retrospective. The first related to the analysis of the last patients, the second - to monitoring the course of their disease in the future. We have considered typical mistakes in the organization of clinical-statistical studies. When planning a research, we usually distinguish the experimental and control groups, which are identical or similar in all respects except for the studied factors (exposure). We discuss the various options for blind methods and consider the application of statistical models and methods in scientific medical research. We have analyzed examples of confidence estimation of proportion (probability) and the homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case of small probability. With its help, we analyze statistical data on the opisthorchiasis
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe consider the methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used types of tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. The goal - to choose the most effective tool. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as appointments to senior positions. The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article
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Description
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the development of controlling of organizational and economic methods, including forecasting tools, the development and management of decision-making, and others. Controlling service is central to the development and implementation of organizational and economic methods to achieve the goals set by management. However, quite often the controlling service has a different name, justified by the history of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we begin with a discussion of the content of the terms "controlling" and especially "Controlling organizational and economic methods". We discuss the role of "controlling service" in the management of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial and municipal entities. As an example of the controlling instrument of organizational and economic methods is considered an automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents, the use in this system the expert technologies and quantitative risk estimation methods. We consider this system as a controlling tool in the management of safety, while customers and performers do not use the term "controlling" in the official documentation of this project. In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the executive power is the indicator "estimate the population of the executive authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of strategic management of regional and municipal entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of solidary information economy (the former name - the informal information economy of the future), developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas of solidary information economy. However, the term "controlling" is not always used in relation to this subject. The same applies to researches related to organizational and economic modeling of innovation and development of innovative systems
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EFFECT OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR DECISION-MAKING IMPLICATIONS
DescriptionThe term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods
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TECHNOLOGICAL WAYS IN INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY
DescriptionIn the article we consider problems of transition of an economic system to the new technological way. Success depends on degree of readiness of system for institutional changes and availability of necessary resources. Assessment of a condition of system plays an important role in the choice of management decisions on its upgrade. Delay with transition to new technological way or, on the contrary, its stimulation in system, not ready to changes, leads to serious, negative consequences for the reformed economy. Change of technological way leads to the release of capital which goes to the financial markets, entering crisis chaos into the system. The task of the state consists in timely reaction on developed, during transition to new way, a situation and the direction of financial flows in key technologies of new way. The new system of assessment of a condition of system and a stabilization effort is offered during the change of technological way