Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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CONTROLLING OF CONSUMER PRICES DYNAMICS AND LIVING WAGE
DescriptionIn accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the activity of executive authorities is the measure "real disposable income of the population". For its calculation it is necessary to measure the level of consumer prices. The article presents the minimum consumer basket of physiologically essential food products, designed in 1993 by the Institute of High Statistical Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 - 2017). We discuss the application of the developed tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of indices of inflation, the living wage and the real disposable income of the population. The methods of the measurement and the use of inflation constitute an important part of training courses in econometrics, which are taught in the context of the scientific-educational complex "Engineering Business and Management" of the Baumann Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1% of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30% use the data contained in the publications of predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their arguments to the real world. This work belongs to the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote
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MOVING FORWARD TO ARISTOTLE: WE MUST BE FREE FROM THE PERVERSIONS OF ECONOMIC THEORY
DescriptionThe founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions. What can replace the "market economy"? We are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article describes the main provisions of solidary information economy, intended to replace the market economy as a management tool. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle
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ECONOMETRICS AS AN ACADEMIC DISCIPLINE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionStatistical methods are widely used in domestic feasibility studies. However, for most managers, economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is due to the fact that modern statistical methods are not taught in the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing on the statistical methods for economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of researches in econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific and practical work and especially the teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often, individual particular constructions replace econometrics in general, such as those related to regression analysis. The article is devoted to econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course begins with a discussion of the structure of modern econometrics, the connections between applied statistics and econometric methods. We consider sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity. We have given the concepts of regression analysis, econometric classification methods, modern measurement theory. The important places are occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data (including fuzzy sets and their links with random sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem of the stability of statistical procedures with respect to the tolerances of input data and model prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the econometric methods of expert research and quality control, analysis and forecasting of time series, econometrics of forecasting and risks are given
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Description
The article deals with studying the ways of optimizing the amount of chemical additives in the wood-concrete material, i.e. arbolite, which contains foamed polystyrene gravel aggregate. To make arbolite honeycombed structure more conglomerated a nonreactive aggregate, i.e. hogged chips, has been partially replaced with foamed polystyrene gravel aggregate which has a mean particle size equal to a concrete pocket size. The article also deals with various additives to be used, taking into account the nonreactive aggregate type and its quality, the composite density and its reinforcement level. All chemical additives have been chosen to make the initial material more porous, to produce a film covering the aggregate surface and to speed up the process of concrete hardening. To solve to above problems a series of experiments was carried out, the latter studied various combinations of factors changing at certain levels. The results of studying the foamed polystyrene gravel aggregate influence on the arbolite structure and its characteristics were used to make a choice of the arbolite composition. The main criterion of the optimal amount of chemical additives has been considered the arbolite strength. The experimental data processing has resulted in the finite regression model which describes the chemical additive amount influence on the arbolite strength. The tables in the article show the levels of technological factors varying and the matrix of planning the experiments to be carried out in order to optimize the chemical additive amount. As a result of the research accomplished the optimal amount of chemical additives has been determined which enables to produce the arbolite with some foamed polystyrene gravel aggregate in its composition
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PROBLEMS OF FORMATION OF THE PROGRAM OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROCKET SPACE INDUSTRY
DescriptionIn this work, the authors investigate practice of application of a program and a target method in planning and management of the space industry. The carried-out analysis has shown that modern methods of formation of programs in space activity do not correspond to the basic principles of program and target planning. Programs of the leading organizations of Roskosmos represent a set of actions, which are poorly coordinated among themselves. The purposes of the program are washed away or not designated absolutely. Lack of definite purposes of the program leads to problems in a result assessment, to decrease in efficiency of use of resources and lag in development from world technological level. The country has already lost leadership in the market of starting services, problems with rendering communication services and broadcasting are observed, the share of the domestic space-rocket industry in the world market of space services decreases. The authors suggest considering a main objective of the program of innovative development growth of competitiveness of the domestic space-rocket industry measured in increase in a share of the Russian production and services in the world space market. The authors believe that the country has the sufficient innovative potential for reduction of lag from leaders of the world space market
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Description
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial system, which should be solved in the process of organizing agricultural production, is considered. It is shown, that the scientific and methodological apparatus of the service subsystem controlling such an object should be expanded in comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial production. The article considers a new approach to the theory of management of large-scale socio-economic systems, based on a solidary information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed, its use as a basic organizational and economic theory instead of "economics" is justified. According to the solidary information economy, modern information technologies and decisionmaking theory make it possible to build information and communication system based on an "open network society" designed to identify people's needs and organize production in order to meet them. Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others. The main content of the research is the forecasting of the development of the future society and its economy, the development of organizational and economic methods and models designed to enhance the effectiveness of management processes. As an economic component of the state ideology of Russia, we propose to use a solidary information economy. The organizational and economic theory of Russia's innovative development should be based on a solidary information economy
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RISKS AND PRIORITIES OF THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL SPACE-ROCKET INDUSTRY
DescriptionBased on risk analysis and consequences of the accidents which have happened to the space equipment from the moment of the beginning of an active phase of space activity, the authors have come to a conclusion that initial stages of life cycle of the project, namely start and a conclusion to an orbit of artificial Earth satellites are subject to the greatest risks. Further functioning of the spacecraft in an orbit is accompanied by much smaller risks, and the least risky are works on service of land infrastructure, processing and information transfer to consumers. Methods of economic protection, which provide acceptance or transfer for a certain payment of risks are not always acceptable for an initial stage of the space project – start and removal into a satellite orbit. Authors suggest evading whenever possible from similar risks for what it is necessary to reduce starts for the benefit of foreign customers. The research of structure of the world space market has shown that such kinds of activity as production of land space infrastructure and rendering services of satellite communication and broadcasting are the most demanded. The market of starting services is gradually reduced in connection with miniaturization of the equipment of satellites and high specific risks of start. The policy of Roskosmos is focused generally on preservation of leadership in starting services which differ in high risks, to the detriment of creation of own satellite group capable to render a wide range of space services to foreign partners. Change of reference points of the strategy of development of the domestic spacerocket industry towards highly profitable and least risky types of space activity is offered
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THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING
DescriptionThe article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decision-making, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decision-making in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four experts-theorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager - the basis of management
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Description
The practice of separate financing of projects of civil and defensive nature, which has been developed in Russia, requires, in the conditions of an aggravation of an international situation, increase in costs for carrying out researches and developments what to go a heavy burden on the federal budget. The analysis of international experience shows that industrially developed countries successfully solved this problem by means of distribution of dual-use technologies. The special effect is reached in space activities where dual-use technologies are widely used in the organization of communication, broadcasting and monitoring of the land surface. In the article, policy of usage of military technologies in civil sector of economy of the USA, Germany and China is analyzed. The policy of distribution of dual-use technologies leads to decrease in load of the budget and promotes attraction of a private equity in researches and developments. The main directions are conversion, sale of information from military companions to the commercial organizations and acquisition by military of information from commercial companions here. Backwardness of the market relations, impracticality of controlling mechanisms, developments and carrying out scientific and technical policy and other problems can become the main obstacle in a way to distribution of dual-use technologies in Russia. However, instability of the revenues of the Russian budget caused by volatility of the prices of energy resources and other external factors puts the most important priority of national economic policy development and distribution of double technologies
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ASYMPTOTICS OF ESTIMATES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION DENSITY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionNonparametric estimates of the probability distribution density in spaces of arbitrary nature are one of the main tools of non-numerical statistics. Their particular cases are considered - kernel density estimates in spaces of arbitrary nature, histogram estimations and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. The purpose of this article is the completion of a series of papers devoted to the mathematical study of the asymptotic properties of various types of nonparametric estimates of the probability distribution density in spaces of general nature. Thus, a mathematical foundation is applied to the application of such estimates in non-numerical statistics. We begin by considering the mean square error of the kernel density estimate and, in order to maximize the order of its decrease, the choice of the kernel function and the sequence of the blur indicators. The basic concepts are the circular distribution function and the circular density. The order of convergence in the general case is the same as in estimating the density of a numerical random variable, but the main conditions are imposed not on the density of a random variable, but on the circular density. Next, we consider other types of nonparametric density estimates - histogram estimates and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. Then we study nonparametric regression estimates and their application to solve discriminant analysis problems in a general nature space