01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
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SIMULATION MODELING OF DISTRIBUTION OF EPIDEMICS ON THE BASIS OF AGENT APPROACH
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionToday, infectious diseases remain a leading cause of premature deaths in the world. Agent-based modeling can play an important role in predicting the spread of disease and to assess the containment measures. The aim is to construct a multi-agent simulation model for the formation of epidemic measures to reduce effectively their incidence. Using the multi-agent simulation approach to modeling of epidemics due to the fact that the approach allows us to consider a number of factors influencing the epidemic process, makes it possible to carry out numerical experiments. The processes of the spatial distribution and temporal variation of these two groups of epidemics of infectious the author calls dynamics. Usually hard-implemented spatial components of the dynamics in the proposed model can be substituted by predfractal topology of the graph, which is built up by voluminous graphs - primers, and the dynamics of compounding prefractal graph, called its recognition, is responsible for the timing of the process component. Under the term of agent, we consider an elementary study participant. An agent is active; it is in a state that may change under the influence of factors. The properties of the agent are attributed characteristics that form the level of immunity: height, weight, gender, income, marital status, education, geography
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionClassic quantitative measure of the reliability of the models: F-measure by van Rijsbergen is based on counting the total number of correctly and incorrectly classified and not classified objects in the training sample. In multiclass classification systems, the facility can simultaneously apply to multiple classes. Accordingly, when the synthesis of the model description is used for formation of generalized images of many of the classes it belongs to. When using the model for classification, it is determined by the degree of similarity or divergence of the object with all classes, and a true-positive decision may be the membership of the object to several classes. The result of this classification may be that the object is not just rightly or wrongly relates or does not relate to different classes, both in the classical F-measure, but rightly or wrongly relates or does not relate to them in varying degrees. However, the classic F-measure does not count the fact that the object may in fact simultaneously belongs to multiple classes (multicrossover) and the fact that the classification result can be obtained with a different degree of similarity-differences of object classes (blurring). In the numerical example, the author states that with true-positive and true-negative decisions, the module similarities-differences of the object classes are much higher than for false-positive and false-negative decisions. It would therefore be rational to the extent that the reliability of the model to take into account not just the fact of true or false positive or negative decisions, but also to take into account the degree of confidence of the classifier in these decisions. In classifying big data we have revealed a large number of false-positive decisions with a low level of similarity, which, however, in total, contribute to reducing the reliability of the model. To overcome this problem, we propose a L2-measure, in which instead of the sum of levels of similarity we use the average similarity by different classifications. Thus, this work offers measures of the reliability of the models, called L1-measure and the L2 measure, mitigating and overcoming the shortcomings of the F-measures; these measures are described mathematically and their application is demonstrated on a simple numerical example. In the intellectual system called "Eidos", which is a software toolkit for the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), we have implemented all these measures of the reliability of the models: F, L1 and L2
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INTELLECTUAL INFORMATION SYSTEM OF THE OPTIMUM CONTROL OF KNOWLEDGE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the article the graph model of management of control of knowledge of pupils in indistinct conditions is offered. The model allows to define the optimum quantity and optimum placement of control actions for a studying course for each discipline (each its fragment), and also to carry out an assessment of structure of knowledge
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionAdequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for the information society and society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from its previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. In the world, there are well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is a lot of data, so-called "Big data". The main primary scientometric indicator (based on which we build all the rest, such as the h-index) is the number of citations of the author's works, placed in the bibliographic database. This number of citations is determined by the software of RSCI using so-called "binding" which is a grammatical analysis and search in databases for works of the author, for relevant links from references in the works of various authors. However, the problem is, as experience shows, that authors make a very large number of simply incorrect and incomplete references in the reference lists, very far from standard. Currently, the software that RSCI uses does not automatically bind these invalid references, and this requires human intervention. But, centrally, to do this is not possible by experts of RSCI because of the huge amount of work, and distributed work for a large number of specialists in the field still requires a centralized moderation. As a result, the work for binding references to the literary sources is very slow and a huge amount of links is unbound. This leads to an underestimation of nanomatrices indicators of both individual authors and research teams that cannot be considered acceptable. The solution to this problem is offered by applying the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – intellectual system called "Eidos". This work provides a numerical example of the intellectual anchor of the real incorrect references to the works of the author on the basis of a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available free on-line access to the RSCI
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe quality of a system is seen as an emergent property of systems, due to their composition and structure, and it reflects their functionality, reliability and cost. Therefore, when we speak about quality management, the purpose of management is the formation of pre-defined system properties of the object of management. The stronger the object of the control expresses its system properties, the stronger the nonlinearity manifests of the object: both the dependence of the management factors from each other, and the dependence of the results of the action of some factors from the actions of others. Therefore, the problem of quality management is that in the management process the management object itself changes qualitatively, i.e. it changes its level of consistency, the degree of determinism and the transfer function itself. This problem can be viewed as several tasks: First is the system identification of the condition of the object of management, 2nd – making decisions about controlling influence that changes the composition of the control object in a way its quality maximally increases at minimum costs. To solve the 2nd problem we have proposed an application of the component selection of the object by functions based on the resources allocated for the implementation of different functions; costs associated with the choice of the components and the degree of compliance of various components to their functional purpose. In fact, we have proposed a formulation and a solution of the new generalization of a variant of the assignment problem: "multi backpack", which differs from the known with the fact that the selection has been based not only on the resources and costs, but also with taking into account the degree of compliance of the components to their functional purpose. A mathematical model, which provides a solution to the 1st problem, and reflecting the degree of compliance of the components to their functionality, as well as the entire decision-making process for selections, i.e. 2nd task, has been implemented in the ASC-analysis and in the system called "Eidos" X++". The article also provides a simplified numerical example of the proposed approach with the selection of staff members
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INTERVAL MODEL OF THE LARGE-SCALE CLUSTERING OF THE MATTER IN THE UNIVERSE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article presents the model of the large-scale clustering of the matter in the universe. The base for mathematical calculations is interval mathematics
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INTERVAL SPANNING TREE PROBLEM ON A TOPOLOGICAL CRITERION
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article presents the problem of spanning trees with topological criteria and interval scales. We have introduced relationship preferences and incomparability to find the complete set of alternatives in the case of interval scales. The base for mathematical calculations is interval mathematics
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INTERFEROMETRIC METHOD OF LASER RADIATION TRANSMISSION USING FREE SPACE OPTICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe analysis of the various conditions of the two (four) laser radiation streams coherent addition was realized. It is shown that it is possible to create devices providing continuous subtraction of waves. In such radiation stream a continuous subtraction on the line can be replaced by the continuous addition on the photomultiplier by using a dispersive delay line. The research results can be used for creation of modern open atmospheric connection lines
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionAnalysis of electronic systems of atoms of chemical elements in planes of sub-shell with help synergetic information theory is conducted. It is found that peri-odic change of properties of chemical elements is ref-lection of periodic change of values R-functions of structured organization of electronic systems
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn this report we have compared an approximation accuracy of distribution function of continuous random variable in a bounded region calculated with Rozenblatt-Parzen method and imaginary sources method. The comparison has been performed with theoretical distribution rule. We have explained the reasonability of using imaginary sources method in case of continuous random variable with single-mode distribution rule