name
Belashova Anastasiya Nikolaevna
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
• Kuban State University
кафедра математических и компьютерных методов
магистрант
Research interests
математическое и имитационное моделирование, численный анализ, стохастический анализ, методы оптимизации
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Articles count: 1
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
Description
In this article, we have proposed a forecast of labor resources by sectors of the labor market of the Russian Federation until 2018 inclusive. The probabilistic parameters of the dynamics of labor resources were calculated using the considered model (articles [1-4]). Further, these probabilities were used to estimate and parameterize the trends of employed and unemployed (with a known last place of employment) specialists in each industry. For each sector of the Russian economy, the type of trend that best approximates the long-term (more than three years) dynamics of labor resources in this sector was selected. It is shown that the forecast error for 1 year is less than 1% using the selected trend models. Further, identified long-term trends were used in forecasting. Based on the results of the forecast of the number of people employed in the sectors of the Russian economy, the sectors were divided into two groups. The first group contains sectors with a significant change in the number of employed in. The second group contains sectors, changes in employed in which were insignificant. At the end of the article, an example of an analysis of two sectors from the first group is given. Causes of changes in the dynamics of labor resources in the researched sectors of the economy were identified. Ones of the main sectors of the economy were considered in this example: "Manufacturing industries" and "Financial activities, real estate transactions, leasing and provision of services"
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