Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY - THE ECONOMY WITHOUT MARKET AND MONEY
DescriptionWe are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy. Further development of our theory is the subject of this article. We begin with a brief review of the economic views of Aristotle and the basic ideas of solidary information economy. Then are substantiated the withering away of the Family, Private Property and the State. We discuss the evolution of money - from gold coins to IOUs and conventional units of circulation. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the functionalist organic information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and information-communication technologies earthlings can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term "economy" according to Aristotle
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NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article is devoted to the nonparametric point and interval estimation of the characteristics of the probabilistic distribution (the expectation, median, variance, standard deviation, variation coefficient) of the sample results. Sample values are regarded as the implementation of independent and identically distributed random variables with an arbitrary distribution function having the desired number of moments. Nonparametric analysis procedures are compared with the parametric procedures, based on the assumption that the sample values have a normal distribution. Point estimators are constructed in the obvious way - using sample analogs of the theoretical characteristics. Interval estimators are based on asymptotic normality of sample moments and functions from them. Nonparametric asymptotic confidence intervals are obtained through the use of special output technology of the asymptotic relations of Applied Statistics. In the first step this technology uses the multidimensional central limit theorem, applied to the sums of vectors whose coordinates are the degrees of initial random variables. The second step is the conversion limit multivariate normal vector to obtain the interest of researcher vector. At the same considerations we have used linearization and discarded infinitesimal quantities. The third step - a rigorous justification of the results on the asymptotic standard for mathematical and statistical reasoning level. It is usually necessary to use the necessary and sufficient conditions for the inheritance of convergence. This article contains 10 numerical examples. Initial data - information about an operating time of 50 cutting tools to the limit state. Using the methods developed on the assumption of normal distribution, it can lead to noticeably distorted conclusions in a situation where the normality hypothesis failed. Practical recommendations are: for the analysis of real data we should use nonparametric confidence limits
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn various applications it is necessary to analyze some expert orderings, ie clustered rankings of examination objects. These areas include technical studies, ecology, management, economics, sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects may make samples of the products, technologies, mathematical models, projects, job applicants and others. We obtain clustered rankings which can be both with the help of experts and objective way, for example, by comparing the mathematical models with experimental data using a particular quality criterion. The method described in this article was developed in connection with the problems of chemical safety and environmental security of the biosphere. We propose a new method for constructing a clustered ranking which can be average (in the sense, discussed in this work) for all clustered rankings under our consideration. Then the contradictions between the individual initial rankings are contained within clusters average (coordinated) ranking. As a result, ordered clusters reflects the general opinion of the experts, more precisely, the total that is contained simultaneously in all the original rankings. Newly built clustered ranking is often called the matching (coordinated) ranking with respect to the original clustered rankings. The clusters are enclosed objects about which some of the initial rankings are contradictory. For these objects is necessary to conduct the new studies. These studies can be formal mathematics (calculation of the Kemeny median, orderings by means of the averages and medians of ranks, etc.) or these studies require involvement of new information from the relevant application area, it may be necessary conduct additional scientific research. In this article we introduce the necessary concepts and we formulate the new algorithm of construct the coordinated ranking for some cluster rankings in general terms, and its properties are discussed
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Description
The basic ideas of the developed by us solidary information economy are analyzed (the original name - the nonformal informational economy of the future). Its use as the base of modern organizational-economic theory in exchange for the term of “economics” is proved. The core of researches in the field of the NIEF is forecasting of development of the future society and its economy, working out of organizational-economic methods and models, necessary for the future and intended for increase of efficiency of managerial processes. The economy is a science how to make, instead of, how to divide profit. The basic kernel of the modern economic theory is an engineering economy. As the economic component of state ideology of Russia we offer solidary information economy. According to the solidary information economy the modern information technology and decision theory allow, based on the “open network society”, to build information and communication system designed to identify the needs of people and the organization of production in order to meet them. To implement this feature we must have political will of leadership of economic unit, aimed at transforming the management of this economic unit. In particular, as is already happening in all developed countries, the Russian state should become a major player in the economy
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Description
The analysis of social and economic development of countries in the conditions of the globalization of the world economy which is carried out with the use of thermo-dynamical model showed that interaction of the open economic systems standing on different levels of development can lead to absorption or destruction of one systems by others that finally will lead to "thermal death" in economy (stagnation). The closed economic systems can communicate with other countries by means of international trade. Less developed countries can't compete with industrially developed states and will inevitably get under their influence. The isolated economic systems can develop only in the presence of domestic market, resources and rigid social structure. Introduction of the anti-Russian sanctions and other external factors led to restriction of the influence of the foreign capital. Innovative activity in economy and strengthening of government institutions might be observed as a result. The thermo-dynamical model shows that partial isolation of the developing economic system possessing sufficient production and scientific potential leads to stabilization of its structure and growth of the innovative activity
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ROLE OF THE FOREIGN FACTOR IN INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionInfluence of a foreign factor on innovative development of the countries isn't unambiguous, for Russia the foreign capital was rather limiting factor, than incentive to development. The analysis of historical experience of development of domestic science and equipment showed that the maximum innovative activity of economy was noted during the centralized science funding and education. The most important for the invention and opening which found the application in domestic economy, were made times of the state control of processes of development and introduction of new types of production and technologies. As a result of the retrospective analysis, it was revealed that innovative processes in domestic economy in the period of economic sanctions and restrictions especially become more active. In this work, it is shown that the market mechanisms providing free movement of technologies, knowledge, scientists and experts have negative impact on the developing national innovative system. Foreign investments by means of which foreign corporations exercise control over the domestic enterprises have special impact on development and promote capital outflow abroad. It is offered to toughen control of the foreign capital within the current legislation and to promote activation of an exchange of scientific and technical information at the international level
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MAIN PROBLEMS OF CONTROLLING OF THE QUALITY
DescriptionControlling of statistical methods to ensure product quality is the special case of controlling organizational and economic methods of management. Today, controlling in the practice of management of Russian companies is understood as "the system of information-analytical and methodological support to achieve their goals." The controller is developing a decision-making rules, the head takes decisions on the basis of these rules. We proved the concept of "controlling of methods". Innovation in management is based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational-economic (as well as economicmathematical and statistical) methods. Controlling in this area - is the development and application procedures of compliance management used and newly developed (implemented) organizationaleconomic methods for the task. Thus, the methodology for controlling is of great practical value in any field in which the actions (operations) must be carried out in accordance with certain rules (regulations, standards, guidelines), as in any such area in which we need to use development and application procedures of compliance management used and the newly established (implemented) rules for solution of tasks assigned to the organization. In this article, we select a area of controlling as controlling quality, and we discuss its main issues. This is about controlling of organizational-economic methods to ensure product quality, especially about the statistical methods based on probability theory and mathematical statistics. We consider the analysis and synthesis of plans of statistical quality control, optimization options plans of statistical control, truncated plans. Are discussed the differences control plans provider and the consumer, the allocation of units formless (liquid, gas) products, the selection of a random sample of the statistical quality control of products, lower estimate of the required sample size. It is established, that is not always necessary quality control. Is given the theory of the basic paradox of statistical quality control. We discuss the development of statistical methods for quality control in our country. Is given the classification of statistical methods of quality management
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Description
In many areas - the economy, quality management, medicine, the ecology, in safety of flights and others - the problems of analysis, estimation and management of risks have much in common. Therefore, we consider it necessary to develop a general theory of risk. Approaches and methods of this theory will allow in the future solving problems of uniform risk management in specific subject areas. Based on the analysis of scientific publications and industry regulations it must be noted that private risk theories tend to become isolated within themselves, create their own internal standards and systems of regulations. Separately - for banking, separately - for safety, separately - for industrial accidents, etc. In order to construct a general theory of risk we analyze use of the term "risk" in various fields, consider the variety of types of risks, give the basic definitions in the field of analysis, estimation and management of risk. We discuss planetary risks (at Earth as a whole), global risks (at the level of one or more States), financial risks, commercial risks (risks at the level of the immediate environment of the company), and production (internal, operational) risks relating to the activities of individual enterprises (organizations), personal risks. Instruments of total risk theory allow us equally solve the basic problems of analysis, estimation and management of risk for all areas
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ABOUT THE KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES
DescriptionOf the many urgent problems of Science about Science, we consider methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences). The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionCurrently, the majority of scientific, technical and economic studies use statistical methods developed mainly in the first third of the XX century. They constitute the content of common textbooks. However, mathematical statistics are rapidly developing in the next 60 years. In some situations there is a need of the transition from classical to modern methods. As an example, we discuss the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We have considered the conditions of applicability of the traditional method of testing the homogeneity based on the use of Student's t-statistic, as well as more up-to-date methods. We describe a probabilistic model of generation of statistical data in the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. In terms of this model the concept of "homogeneity" ("no difference"), can be formalized in different ways. High degree of homogeneity is achieved if the two samples are taken from one and the same population (absolute homogeneity). In some cases it is advisable to testing the coincidence of some characteristics of the elements of the sample - mathematical expectations, medians, variances, coefficients of variation, and others (testing the homogeneity of characteristics). To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations is often recommended classic t-test. It is believed that the samples taken from a normal distributions with equal variances. It is shown that for scientific, technical and economic data the preconditions of two-sample t-test usually are not performed. To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations instead of t-test we have offered to use the Cramer-Welch test. We have considered the consistent nonparametric Smirnov and Lehmann-Rosenblatt tests for absolute homogeneity