Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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NON-PARAMETRIC CYCLES ESTIMATORS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn many applications, we study the time series (or a random process), which is the sum of the periodic deterministic function of time and random errors that distort the periodic signal. It is required to estimate the length of the period and the periodic component. It does not assume that the periodic function is included in any parameter family of functions, such as finite sums of sines and cosines. It is obvious that the assumption of occurrence of a periodic function in parametric family does not meet the characteristics of the real world, ie, is conditional, internal mathematical (look for the keys under the lamp because there is a light, not in the bush, where lost, because there are dark). For similar reasons, it is impossible to assume that the distribution function of the random errors is included in any parameter family of distributions. In accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical statistics in this article we studied the problem of nonparametric estimation (minimum) length of the period and the periodic component of the signal. On the basis of natural variation and scope of indicators is suggested a new class of nonparametric estimators of the length of the period and the periodic component in the time series. Based on the general results of statistics of objects of non-numeric nature we proved the consistency of these estimates. From the practical point of view it is necessary to minimize the numerical (one parameter - ability length of period of time) one or more of the 66 functionals, described in the article
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STATE AND PROSPECTS OF APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe general scheme of modern statistical science is just like this. Mathematical Statistics is a part of mathematics that studies the statistical structure (it itself does not give recipes analysis of statistical data, however, it is developing methods that are useful for use in theoretical statistics). Theoretical Statistics - the science dedicated to the models and methods of analysis of concrete statistical data. Applied Statistics (in the narrow sense) is devoted to the statistical techniques of data collection and processing (it includes the methodology of statistical methods, the organization of sample surveys, the development of statistical techniques, the creation and use of statistical software). Applications of statistical methods in concrete fields (in economics and management - Econometrics, in biology - Biometrics, in chemistry - Chemometrics, in technical research - Technometric, in geology, demography, sociology, medicine, history, etc.). Often positions 2 and 3 together are called Applied Statistics. Sometimes position 1 is called Theoretical Statistics. These terminological differences are related to the fact that the above-described development of the considered scientific and applied field not once, not completely and not always adequately reflected in the minds of experts. Meanwhile, there are still textbooks of appropriate level of representation of the mid-twentieth century. The article analyzes the post-war development of the national statistics. We have identified five "growth points": nonparametrics, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of non-numeric data. We have discussed content, development and the basic ideas of statistics of nonnumeric data. We have given a number of unresolved problems of theoretical and applied statistics
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STATISTICAL METHODS IN HISTORY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have given a critical analysis of statistical models and methods for processing text information in historical records to establish the times when there were certain events, ie, to build science-based chronology. There are three main kinds of sources of knowledge of ancient history: ancient texts, the remains of material culture and traditions. The specific date of the extracted by archaeologists objects in most cases can not be found. The group of Academician A.T. Fomenko has developed and applied new statistical methods for analysis of historical texts (Chronicle), based on the intensive use of computer technology. Two major scientific results were: the majority of historical records that we know now, are duplicated (in particular, chronicles, describing the so-called "Ancient Rome" and "Middle Ages", talking about the same events); the known historical chronicles tell us about real events, separated from the present time for not more than 1000 years. It was found that chronicles describing the history of "ancient times" and "Middle Ages" and the chronicle of Chinese history and the history of various European countries do not talk about different, but about the same events. We have the attempt of a new dating of historical events and restoring the true history of human society based on new data. From the standpoint of statistical methods of historical records and images of their fragments – they are special cases of non-numeric objects of nature. Therefore, developed by the group of A.T. Fomenko computer-statistical methods are the part of non-numerical statistics. We have considered some methods of statistical analysis of chronicles applied by the group of A.T. Fomenko: correlation method of maximums; dynasties method; the method of attenuation frequency; questionnaire method codes. New chronology allows us to understand much of the battle of ideas in modern science and mass consciousness. It becomes clear the root cause of cautious attitude of the West towards Russia
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Description
The article describes a new approach to the assessment of the economic system. The authors propose to assume that the system grows, if its share in the world production increases. For the qualitative assessment, we have offered to analyze the dynamics of growth of exports of products with high benefit to the foreign countries, which include engineering goods, defense, manufacturing materials. On the world market of hightech products, we have the stiff competition and the growth of exports of domestic products with high benefit indicates high level of innovation. Based on the analysis of available statistical data, we revealed a correlation between exports of innovative products, the volumes of financing research and development and foreign direct investment in the national economy. It was determined foreign capital has a negative impact on exports of products with high benefit. The authors proposed a two-factor regression model, which allows you to make short-term forecasts and allocate resources. The study showed that despite the ongoing economic sanctions and unsuccessful economic reforms in the past, Russia has a high potential for innovation, which is activated when reducing the influence of foreign capital. Attempts to isolate the Russian economic system led to the mobilization of resources and the growth of innovation activity of domestic business
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MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF RATINGS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWhen developing management solutions with the aim of joint consideration and comparison of various factors, partial removal of uncertainty is widely used ratings. In the theory of decisionmaking in almost the same sense, we use the terms "composite index" or "integrated indicator". The article is devoted to the mathematical theory of ratings as tools for studying socio-economic systems. We considered, primarily, linear ratings which is a linear function from a single (private) indicators (factors, criteria), constructed using the coefficients of importance (weightiness, importance). The study discusses the factors affecting the magnitude of the ratings. Three groups of causes affect the value of a line ranking: the ways of measurement of individual indicators, the choice of the set of indicators; the values of the coefficients of importance. We considered binary ratings when the rating takes two values. To compare the proposed rankings we use a new indicator of the quality of diagnostics and prognostic power. Significantly, in many managerial situations, significant differences between objects are identified using any rating. According to the fundamental results of stability theory, the same source data should be processed in several ways. Matching findings, obtained using multiple methods, likely reflect the properties of reality. The difference is the result of a subjective selection method. When using the results of the comparison of objects according to several indicators (criteria ratings), including in dynamics, very useful is the selection of the Pareto set. We discuss the examples of the application of the decision theory, expert evaluations and rankings when developing complex technical systems
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INTERCONNECTION LIMIT THEOREMS AND MONTE-CARLO METHOD
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe purpose of mathematical statistics is development of methods for the data analysis intended to solve applied problems. Over time, approaches to the development of data analysis methods have changed. A hundred years ago, it was assumed, that the distributions of the data have a certain type, for example, they are normal distributions, and on that assumption they developed a statistical theory. The next stage, in the first place in theoretical studies there are limit theorems. By "small sample" we mean a sample, which can not be applied to conclusions based on the limit theorems. In each statistical problem there is a need to divide the final sample sizes into two classes - those for which you can apply the limit theorems, and those for which you can not do it because of the risk of incorrect conclusions. To solve this problem we often used the Monte Carlo method. More complex problems arise when studying the effect on the properties of statistical procedures for data analysis of various deviations from the original assumptions. To study such impact, we often used the Monte Carlo method as well. The basic (and not solved in a general way) problem of the study of the stability of the findings in the presence of deviations from the parametric families of distributions is the problem of choosing some distributions for using in modeling. We consider some examples of application of the Monte Carlo method, relating to the activities of our research team. We have also formulated basic unsolved problems
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REAL AND NOMINAL SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS IN STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the statistical hypothesis testing, critical values often point to a priori fixed (nominal) significance levels. As such, typically researcher uses the values of three numbers 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, to which may be added a few levels: 0.001, 0.005, 0.02, and others. However, for the statistics with discrete distribution functions, which, in particular, include all nonparametric statistical tests, the real significance levels may be different from the nominal, differ at times. Under the real significance level we refer to the highest possible significance level of discrete statistics, not exceeding a given nominal significance level (ie, the transition to the next highest possible value corresponding discrete statistical significance level is greater than a predetermined nominal). In the article, we have discussed the difference between nominal and real significance levels on the example of nonparametric tests for the homogeneity of two independent samples. We have also studied two-sample Wilcoxon test, the criterion of van der Waerden, Smirnov two-sample two-sided test, sign test, runs test (Wolfowitz) and calculated the real significance levels of the criteria for nominal significance level of 0.05. The study of the power of these statistical tests is accomplished by means of Monte Carlo method. The main conclusion: the use of nominal significance levels instead of real significance levels for discrete statistics is inadmissible for small sample sizes
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A MODEL OF THE CONFLICT LINGUISTIC PERSONALITY IN EVERYDAY CONFLICT DISCOURSE
10.00.00 Philological sciences
DescriptionThe aim of the study is to describe the concept of conflict linguistic personality and construct a model of linguistic identity. By summing up common features of the individual personalities we have created the model of conflict linguistic personality, based on three levels: verbal-semantic, cognitive and pragmatic. 1. Verbal - semantic level. Unlike other subtypes of conflict discourse, everyday conflict discourse is characterized by slang, invective, obscene vocabulary. Another feature of everyday conflict discourse is familiarity. Imperatives are also among the characteristic features of conflict. There are also some non-verbal components that play an important role in constructing the model of conflict linguistic personality, such as gestures and mimicry. 2. Cognitive level. Typical conflict linguistic personality rarely tries to mince the words at the peak of the conflict, so his/her cultural level comes "through the language." 3. Pragmatic level. On this level diverse and even opposing tactics are possible depending on the purpose of conflict linguistic personality, as well as his/her social role and psychological state at the moment. The cooperative tactics include: acceptance, conviction, compassion, assignment, promise, etc. Noncooperative tactics include: mockery, accusation, insults, threats, pressure, interruption, provocation
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ABOUT NEW PROMISING MATHEMATICAL TOOLS OF CONTROLLING
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionBased on an objective analysis, it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. In the XXI century it developed a new paradigm of mathematical methods of economics and produced more than 10 books, developed in accordance with this paradigm. The new paradigm is based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. The new paradigm offers tools used non-parametric statistics, which suggest that the distribution functions are arbitrary. In 1979 it was allocated one of the four major areas of modern applied statistics - statistics of objects of nonnumeric nature (statistics of non-numeric data, nonnumeric statistics). The other three - statistics of random variables, multivariate statistical analysis, statistics of random processes and time series. Statistics of objects of non-numeric nature is central to the modern mathematical methods of economics. On the basis of modern information-communication technologies we have developed a new economic theory - solidary information economy. New intellectual tools of controlling include an automated system-cognitive analysis (ASA) and its software - the system of "Eidos". The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools
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CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
DescriptionThe real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter from Einstein) and the coincidence in time between the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the developments in science and technology for the entire second half of the twentieth century. For the first time in the entire history of the world the leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that fundamental research can bring great practical benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of countries). Namely, they can give the brand new super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a broad organizational and financial support of fundamental and deriving from them applied research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental and applied research on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress. We consider the development of mathematical methods of research and information technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial intelligence"