01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
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STATE AND PROSPECTS OF APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe general scheme of modern statistical science is just like this. Mathematical Statistics is a part of mathematics that studies the statistical structure (it itself does not give recipes analysis of statistical data, however, it is developing methods that are useful for use in theoretical statistics). Theoretical Statistics - the science dedicated to the models and methods of analysis of concrete statistical data. Applied Statistics (in the narrow sense) is devoted to the statistical techniques of data collection and processing (it includes the methodology of statistical methods, the organization of sample surveys, the development of statistical techniques, the creation and use of statistical software). Applications of statistical methods in concrete fields (in economics and management - Econometrics, in biology - Biometrics, in chemistry - Chemometrics, in technical research - Technometric, in geology, demography, sociology, medicine, history, etc.). Often positions 2 and 3 together are called Applied Statistics. Sometimes position 1 is called Theoretical Statistics. These terminological differences are related to the fact that the above-described development of the considered scientific and applied field not once, not completely and not always adequately reflected in the minds of experts. Meanwhile, there are still textbooks of appropriate level of representation of the mid-twentieth century. The article analyzes the post-war development of the national statistics. We have identified five "growth points": nonparametrics, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of non-numeric data. We have discussed content, development and the basic ideas of statistics of nonnumeric data. We have given a number of unresolved problems of theoretical and applied statistics
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STATISTICAL METHODS IN HISTORY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have given a critical analysis of statistical models and methods for processing text information in historical records to establish the times when there were certain events, ie, to build science-based chronology. There are three main kinds of sources of knowledge of ancient history: ancient texts, the remains of material culture and traditions. The specific date of the extracted by archaeologists objects in most cases can not be found. The group of Academician A.T. Fomenko has developed and applied new statistical methods for analysis of historical texts (Chronicle), based on the intensive use of computer technology. Two major scientific results were: the majority of historical records that we know now, are duplicated (in particular, chronicles, describing the so-called "Ancient Rome" and "Middle Ages", talking about the same events); the known historical chronicles tell us about real events, separated from the present time for not more than 1000 years. It was found that chronicles describing the history of "ancient times" and "Middle Ages" and the chronicle of Chinese history and the history of various European countries do not talk about different, but about the same events. We have the attempt of a new dating of historical events and restoring the true history of human society based on new data. From the standpoint of statistical methods of historical records and images of their fragments – they are special cases of non-numeric objects of nature. Therefore, developed by the group of A.T. Fomenko computer-statistical methods are the part of non-numerical statistics. We have considered some methods of statistical analysis of chronicles applied by the group of A.T. Fomenko: correlation method of maximums; dynasties method; the method of attenuation frequency; questionnaire method codes. New chronology allows us to understand much of the battle of ideas in modern science and mass consciousness. It becomes clear the root cause of cautious attitude of the West towards Russia
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INTERVAL SPANNING TREE PROBLEM ON A TOPOLOGICAL CRITERION
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article presents the problem of spanning trees with topological criteria and interval scales. We have introduced relationship preferences and incomparability to find the complete set of alternatives in the case of interval scales. The base for mathematical calculations is interval mathematics
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TO THE QUESTION OF THE SPEED OF WAVE PROPAGATION IN ELECTROMAGNETIC ENVIRONMENT
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThis question is about the speed of wave propagation in electromagnetic environment. Electromagnetic environment (field) is the space that fills the whole Universe, occupied by the electromagnetic particles-photons. At the heart of the special relativity theory, the constancy of the speed of light in vacuum is affirmed. According to modern concepts, the speed of light in vacuum is the maximum speed of the particle motion and propagation of interactions. However, light is the narrow range of electromagnetic radiation – (4÷8)·1014 Hz, therefore experimentally measured speed of light is referred to this frequency range. The fact that this speed of electromagnetic waves can theoretically be non permanent – physicists have pondered for a long time and this question is periodically excited in the scientific literature. The author of this article also had an impression that the speed of light, in which he understands distribution speed of waves of a wide range of frequencies in the electromagnetic environment, is not a constant. The article attempts to prove it. Many photons of different frequencies move simultaneously in different directions in a photonic electromagnetic field in environment. They are involved in the formation of a wave of compression – decompression in this field under the influence of the antenna radiated photons. It is approved that the speed of photons of different frequencies can change within a wide range from 1,285·103 m/s (ν = 1024 Hz) to 1,285·1012 m/s (ν = 106 Hz) and, therefore, the speed of wave propagation in the electromagnetic environments that are filled by photons of the same frequency or a narrow frequency range can change widely from 8,58·102 m/s to 8,58·1011 m/s and be significantly different from the experimentally discovered speed of light. Interplanetary space in different parts of the Universe can be represented by different spectra of photons and therefore they will have different speed of propagation of electromagnetic waves
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THEORY OF ELECTROMAGNETIC DRIVE WITH ELEMENTARY PARTICLES CURRENT AND VACUUM POLARIZATION
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article discusses a model of rocket motor of electromagnetic type, consisting of a source of electromagnetic radio frequency oscillations and the conical cavity, in which electromagnetic waves are excited. We have created a multi-dimensional transient numerical model describing the process of establishing electromagnetic oscillations in the resonator, taking into account the finite conductivity of the walls. Separately, the standing waves in the cavity with conducting walls have been simulated. It is shown that the oscillations mode in the conducting resonator different from that in an ideal resonator, both in a case of steady and unsteady waves. We have built a dynamic model taking into account the thermal conductivity and electrical conductivity of the walls, waves and particles emission and vacuum polarization. We have also developed a dynamic model enables to optimize a thrust force on a considerable number of parameters without the involvement of the hypotheses about the physics of the phenomenon. We run the optimization of the operating parameters of the device, namely by the excitation frequency, the frequency of the modulating signal, the magnitude of heat losses of electromagnetic energy by thermal radiation in the IR spectrum, the parameters of forced heat transfer and the temperature dependence of the resistance of the material of the cavity walls. It is found that the pulse modulation greatly improves the efficiency of conversion of electromagnetic energy into thrust. The mechanism of formation of traction, adjusting the metrics of space-time, the current contribution of elementary particles, the Yang-Mills and electromagnetic fields is proposed. It is shown that the contribution of the elementary particles in the thrust force is proportional to the electrical conductivity of the system multiplied by Abraham force
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FORECAST OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionForecasting of scientific and technical progress is necessary to make grounded management decisions. In this article, we forecast the development of information and communication technologies in order to solve a particular but important issue of design of professional standards in the aerospace industry. We identify the factors affecting the development of information and communication (computer) technologies, with their help determine the trends of development of these technologies over the next two decades. The main trend - the maximum cheaper production of computer (or network) components, combined with an increase in their capacity. One way to reduce the cost of production is the "centralization" - combining several components into one. The third trend - the desire to reduce the size of computers. The size of a future computer could be a device the size of a pencil, a pin or button, as the system unit has a negligible size, keyboard and display are virtual, transfer any amount of information through a virtual office online. The development of secure free copying will lead to increased use of this free software and technologies "rental program" over the Internet. We predict an increase in reliability and intensive programs while maintaining the general principles of the interface. Revolutionary changes are expected production (machines, sensors), and household appliances
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LIMIT THEOREMS IN STATISTICAL CONTROL
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article analyzes the development of the theory of statistical control (from the XVIII century to the present). Prof. M.V. Ostrogradskii (1846) clearly describes the practical needs (ie, arising from the quality assurance of large quantities of bags of flour or pieces of cloth), to meet whom he spent his research. At the same time Simpson was among the ideas of probability theory XVIII century. Therefore prof. M.V. Ostrogradskii may be regarded as the founder of the theory of statistical process control (not only in our country but all over the world). Limit theorems of probability theory and mathematical statistics have provided a number of asymptotic results in problems of statistical quality control, offer based on these best practices. However, we must find out how much interest among specialists characteristics are different from limit for finite sample sizes. Such research for the synthesis algorithm control plan on the basis of the limit average output level of defects is made in this article, and for the synthesis algorithm control plan on the basis of the acceptance and the rejection levels of defects - not yet (clarification of the conditions of applicability of this algorithm - unsolved problem of applied mathematics). We have briefly reviewed the development of our researches on the statistical control. Control units can be not only some units of production, but also documents (with internal and external audit), and standard units of air, water and soil in the environmental monitoring. One of the achievements can be regarded as the transfer of statistical control of production for environmental monitoring
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MODERN ECONOMETRIC METHODS - INTELLECTUAL TOOLS OF ENGINEERS, MANAGERS AND ECONOMISTS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionStatistical methods are widely used in domestic feasibility studies. However, for most managers, economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is because modern statistical methods are not taught in the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing on the statistical methods for economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in Economics are awarded to series of researches in econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific and practical work and especially the teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often, individual particular constructions replace econometrics in general, such as those related to regression analysis. In econometrics we select three types of scientific and applied activities: development and study of methods of applied statistics, taking into account the specifics of economic data; development and study of econometric models, in accordance with the specific needs of economic science and practice; the use of econometric methods for statistical analysis of specific economic data. This article describes these three types of scientific and applied activities. We discuss the specificity of economic data. We show the importance of economic non-numeric values. We discuss the statistics of interval data - scientific direction at the joint of metrology and statistics. We give the representation of the econometric models. Problems of application of econometric methods are considered as an example of inflation. We discuss the statistics and econometrics as the field of scientific and practical activities. We have examined econometric methods in practical and training activities
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THE INVERSE PROBLEM OF A REPRODUCTION MODEL OF NATIONAL INCOME
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn practice, there were developed and tested some mathematical models of balance relationships (balance model), economic growth, expanding economy, labour market, theories of consumption, production, competitive equilibrium models of the economy in conditions of imperfect competition and others. The basis of these models were based on linear algebra, mathematical analysis, mathematical programming, differential equations, optimization methods, optimal control theory, probability theory, stochastic processes, operations research, game theory, statistical analysis. The inverse problem in various models of mathematical Economics was considered quite rare. These tasks were sufficiently investigated in the study of physical processes. As shown by the analysis of the theoretical and applied studies of economic processes, they represent considerable interest for practice. Therefore, the considered in the study inverse problems of the mathematical model, as it is shown by the already introduced results of other mathematical models, are of considerable interest in applied and theoretical research. In this article, the authors have formulated and investigated an inverse problem for a model of economic growth. For its solution the authors propose to build a system of algebraic equations, using a reproduction model of national income; then, using methods of quadratic programming, to find the best average quadratic estimates of the model parameter
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DYNAMICS OF RELATIVISTIC PARTICLES IN THE GALAXY METRIC
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn this study we investigate the dynamics of relativistic particles in the axially symmetric metrics. We have built metric having axial symmetry and contains two centers of gravity and a logarithmic singularity. The application received metrics to the movement of particles in galaxies is described. It is established that there are stable orbit in the metric with two centers of gravity, the particle velocity at which reaches the value v/ c ≈ 7.0 . Orbit radius varies widely, but remains substantially flat orbit. Unstable same movements are completed so that the particles leave the system. The hypothesis that this kind of relativistic objects can serve as sources of the magnetic fields of the planets, stars and galaxies has been proposed. The question of the realization in the galaxy metric of Einstein's hypothetical elevator in which there is a uniform gravitational field, simulating the accelerated movement of the elevator is described. A homogeneous gravitational field in a limited region of space was numerical simulated. It has been shown that this kind of accelerated objects generate relativistic effect in the form of a log potential, not diminishing with distance from the center of the system. It is assumed that such capabilities can be associated with the Higgs field responsible for the occurrence of the inertial mass of the elementary particles