name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
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Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
• Kuban State Agrarian University
Research interests
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Web site url
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Articles count: 19
Сформировать список работ, опубликованных в Научном журнале КубГАУ
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Description
The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel in this context is understood as assessment of extent of influence of the external environment (macro environment) on activity of the integrated production system. In the article the model and the technique of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system is offered. All stages of creation of the model which include representation of basic risk factors of macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are described, each of basic risk factors is a compound linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of compound factors to basic level is used. The equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment on the integrated production system is presented. The principle of recognition and interpretation of result on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of development for business system by definition of a condition of the external environment is shown, and depending on it the strategic scenario of development of business system is offered
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Description
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system are described. Then the steps of creation of triangular fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given. At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system was used. Further on the basis of the developed model of internal risk the interval model of efficiency of the integrated production system is developed and described. In this article the structure of a production chain of the integrated production system of agroindustrial complex was considered. In technologically complete production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw materials production, storage and conversion, sale of finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from previous stage, and at each stage various situations of risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification of the internal environment of the integrated production system was considered in this article. Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the internal environment it is necessary to know quantity of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm. Also in the article the principle of recognition and interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system on the basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01 classificators is shown
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Description
The article describes the process of developing the two-level technique for assessment of the missed benefit during the landing and cultivation of perennial plantings. The technique is developed for the enterprises where the cycle of production of raw materials breaks into several periods until the first harvest. The choice problem of the most suitable grades for the landing is relevant for such enterprises. The first level of the two-level technique assumes assessment of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of grades with use of such tools as the theory of fuzzy sets and the decisions tree. The results of the first level are entrance data for the second level where there is final assessment of a grade and determination of the missed benefit rather potentially possible at the choice of the recommended grade. In the article also designated the importance of the raw materials stage for the technological chain. It is shown that, being consecutive structure, the technological chain strongly depends on the first stage – a stage of raw materials production. Minimization of the risk situations at the first stage promotes strengthening of the general risk tolerance of a technological chain
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Description
The article substantiates the necessity to use factors that trigger development mechanisms and describe risks at various stages of the organization's life cycle in the process of developing organizational structures for such large social and economic systems as corporate integrated structures characterized by the presence of diverse organizations in their structure. A comparative analysis of approaches to the description of the life cycle was conducted, as a result of which it was determined that L. Greiner's model is incomplete (it describes only the stages of development), and I. Adizes' model contains a blurred system of factors. To solve the problems, the model of I. Adizes was chosen as the basic approach and the characteristics of the stages of the life cycle of the organizations are selected. To formalize the factors that trigger the development mechanisms and describe the risks at various stages of the life cycle of organizations, a cognitive analysis and modeling apparatus was chosen and a corresponding methodology was developed. The implementation of the methodology is represented by the example of the first stage of the organization's life cycle ("Courtship"), which resulted in the compilation of a list of factors, their mutual influence on each other, the type of communication, and the cognitive model. Analysis of the cognitive model allowed us to determine the key factor that has the greatest impact on the transition to the next stage of development
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
Description
The problem of the optimal distribution of production tasks is one of the important problems of effective planning of processes associated with production at the enterprise. However, the classical approach to solving this problem becomes of little use when the individual stages of the production process are performed sequentially and in the case when it is necessary to take into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. Purpose of work: to develop a methodology for minimizing costs in the distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. We built a multicriteria discrete optimization model for the distribution of production tasks according to the structure of production elements. One of the methods based on the proposed model is proposed, which allows to identify groups consisting of four elements in the production structure of the enterprise. The model is built using a network design which are pre-fractal graphs. The use of pre-fractal graphs allows you to naturally represent the structure of production and technological links of the elements of the production system of large enterprises. The results of the work is the developed effective methodology for solving the problem of the network distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of technological processes at the enterprise, the economic effect of which is to minimize resource costs. Based on the constructed model, we can develop automated means of monitoring and managing the production processes of a company
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