Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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IMPROVING TOOLS FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MILITARYINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
DescriptionThe modernization of the military-industrial complex of Russia is accomplished by the implementation of the program of its development. Implementation of these measures requires scientific and methodological support. However, the tools help you solve this problem, using modern mathematical methods with a focus on practical use in the form of methods and economic and mathematical models, to date, not fully developed. The article is devoted to the development of tools for assessment of activities of the militaryindustrial complex The proposed models and algorithms are based on the production rules of inference of fuzzy logic and process variables to a fuzzy mind by assigning confidence factors. The prioritization of activities proposed to be carried out by ranking these factors
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Description
Introduction of sector and financial sanction restrictions started by west countries in March 2014 at present time has become a tangible blow to the Russian economy. If the first sanctions packages were mainly directed against certain individuals and legal entities, the following sanctions restrictions have become a kind of acupressure on the most advanced sectors of the Russian economy and its focus on the most vulnerable places. These circumstances determined the relevance of subjects of this article - namely, the identification of the results of the system analysis of the main threats to Russia's economic security in times of sectoral and financial sanctions restrictions on the example of the oil and gas complex. Oil and gas industry has always been and continues to be one of the most important part of the Russian economy. Mining and the subsequent marketing of hydrocarbons in the world markets for more than half of the federal budget. Therefore, the primary importance is the evaluation of both the threats to the security of the country's economy and the negative impact of sanctions restrictions on the dynamics of the industry. The article reveals the most significant sectoral and financial sanctions and restrictions determined by the degree of their influence on the development of the oil and gas industry and the security of the Russian economy as a whole. The necessity of introduction of import arrangements to reduce dependence on oil and gas companies of purchases of imported components, equipment and technology. Evaluation of the effect of sanctions limitations on the dynamics of changes in the rate of debt load oil and gas companies for its calculation in rubles and foreign currency terms. The conclusion is that the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy has demonstrated its resilience to the effects of the most severe restrictions and sanctions and for its further development we need more support through the development of large-scale program of import substitution, involving the variability of the joint efforts of the government and the oil and gas industry companies
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ROLE OF THE FOREIGN FACTOR IN INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionInfluence of a foreign factor on innovative development of the countries isn't unambiguous, for Russia the foreign capital was rather limiting factor, than incentive to development. The analysis of historical experience of development of domestic science and equipment showed that the maximum innovative activity of economy was noted during the centralized science funding and education. The most important for the invention and opening which found the application in domestic economy, were made times of the state control of processes of development and introduction of new types of production and technologies. As a result of the retrospective analysis, it was revealed that innovative processes in domestic economy in the period of economic sanctions and restrictions especially become more active. In this work, it is shown that the market mechanisms providing free movement of technologies, knowledge, scientists and experts have negative impact on the developing national innovative system. Foreign investments by means of which foreign corporations exercise control over the domestic enterprises have special impact on development and promote capital outflow abroad. It is offered to toughen control of the foreign capital within the current legislation and to promote activation of an exchange of scientific and technical information at the international level
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RISKS AND PRIORITIES OF THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL SPACE-ROCKET INDUSTRY
DescriptionBased on risk analysis and consequences of the accidents which have happened to the space equipment from the moment of the beginning of an active phase of space activity, the authors have come to a conclusion that initial stages of life cycle of the project, namely start and a conclusion to an orbit of artificial Earth satellites are subject to the greatest risks. Further functioning of the spacecraft in an orbit is accompanied by much smaller risks, and the least risky are works on service of land infrastructure, processing and information transfer to consumers. Methods of economic protection, which provide acceptance or transfer for a certain payment of risks are not always acceptable for an initial stage of the space project – start and removal into a satellite orbit. Authors suggest evading whenever possible from similar risks for what it is necessary to reduce starts for the benefit of foreign customers. The research of structure of the world space market has shown that such kinds of activity as production of land space infrastructure and rendering services of satellite communication and broadcasting are the most demanded. The market of starting services is gradually reduced in connection with miniaturization of the equipment of satellites and high specific risks of start. The policy of Roskosmos is focused generally on preservation of leadership in starting services which differ in high risks, to the detriment of creation of own satellite group capable to render a wide range of space services to foreign partners. Change of reference points of the strategy of development of the domestic spacerocket industry towards highly profitable and least risky types of space activity is offered
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Description
In modern conditions, housing and communal services, on the one hand, the urgent need of carrying out a comprehensive mo-modernization of the entire infrastructure, and on the other hand, with the intensification of the implementation of innovations manufacturing techniques, it can be one of the points of sustainable growth and development of domestic economic. These circumstances determine the relevance scope of this article. The article identifies the main control housing and communal services – housing fund as well as the composition of the institutional agents carrying out its operation. It was found that the current management practice does not meet the requirements of the market and fundamentally change the conditions of financial and economic activities of its institutional agents, and the results of ongoing reforms in this area cannot be considered satisfactory. We defined targets development of innovative potential of housing and communal services, and its compliance with the investment activity of its institutional agents. We revealed the most significant changes, which should be based on the innovative vector of development of this sphere. We substantiated composition of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the system for conformity assessment of the innovative capacity of the sphere of housing and communal services of the investment activity of its institutional agents. The article substantiates the need to develop science-based concept of innovative development and comprehensive modernization of the infrastructure of housing and communal services and the feasibility of pilot innovative projects. It is concluded that the successful implementation of pilot innovative projects can become the starting point for turning the sphere of housing-communal services, but one of the stable points of growth of the domestic economy
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PRODUCTION RISKS AND ECONOMIC HAZARDS OF MODERN HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES
DescriptionThe article shows that when the plans for the creation and production of modern high-tech innovative products for different purposes it is necessary to consider all possible risks and dangers that accompany modern innovative projects. New approaches to the planning of the development of science-intensive industries should ensure that the accounting and the management of risk situations of the financialeconomic, scientific-technical and industrialtechnological character. One of the promising directions of the domestic output of the industrial complex from its current unstable state is a strategic planning and forecasting of its activity, the development strategies should be based on an evaluation of available enterprise resources, the lack of which leads to stagnation. With active government support the company can successfully implement a strategy of stabilization and progress through cooperation and diversification of production and to make a technological breakthrough in creating high-tech products of new generation
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PROBLEMS OF FORMATION OF THE PROGRAM OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROCKET SPACE INDUSTRY
DescriptionIn this work, the authors investigate practice of application of a program and a target method in planning and management of the space industry. The carried-out analysis has shown that modern methods of formation of programs in space activity do not correspond to the basic principles of program and target planning. Programs of the leading organizations of Roskosmos represent a set of actions, which are poorly coordinated among themselves. The purposes of the program are washed away or not designated absolutely. Lack of definite purposes of the program leads to problems in a result assessment, to decrease in efficiency of use of resources and lag in development from world technological level. The country has already lost leadership in the market of starting services, problems with rendering communication services and broadcasting are observed, the share of the domestic space-rocket industry in the world market of space services decreases. The authors suggest considering a main objective of the program of innovative development growth of competitiveness of the domestic space-rocket industry measured in increase in a share of the Russian production and services in the world space market. The authors believe that the country has the sufficient innovative potential for reduction of lag from leaders of the world space market
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PROBLEMS OF RESOURCE ENSURING INNOVATIVE MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionRealization of the objects set in the Strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation depends on the level of resource providing the projects and programs entering it. In this work, types of resources and a possibility of their effective use are analyzed. Russia possesses practically all types of natural resources and the labor potential necessary for a country conclusion in leaders of world economy. The problem consists in inefficient use of these resources, which are distributed in the directions, deadlock for our country. During the analysis which is carried out by means of production function it is established that return from investments into mining industry is much lower, than from capital investments in the productions which are turning out competitive, innovative products with high value added. Important task is distribution of resources in the priority directions of Strategy among which there is no astronautics, of a nuclear power engineering, aircraft, those branches where still there is a scientific and technical reserve and there were qualified personnel. The analysis of historical experience showed that the country achieved the greatest success in post-war years when command methods carried out mobilization of all necessary resources for achievement of a goal. In the modern market conditions it is offered to finance the initial stages of life cycle of innovative projects from public funds, and on closing stages to raise funds from investors by means of tools of public-private partnership
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Description
Decision-making requires a thorough analysis of the external environment in which the economic system operates. Anti-Russian economic sanctions is significantly destabilized external environment that has complicated the task of making decisions on management of the enterprise. This study analyzes the problem of decision making under conditions of the uncertainty caused by the anti-Russian sanctions, the conclusion about the limited decision-making methods based on game theory. The most effective are management practices supported by information systems. The article analyzes the current information technology of managing a company made by different developers who have already installed their software products on objects, which are strategic for the Russian economy. In terms of economic sanctions, such a situation creates a threat to the economic security of the country. Based on domestic developments, it is proposed to construct an information model of the enterprise, which will reduce the risks and increase the quality of managerial decisions. The work presents a structural scheme of the information model and defines its objectives and characteristics
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Description
Problems of formation and evaluation of the feasibility of the plans and programs of development of high-tech products aerospace are both relevant and meaningful. To accelerate progress in the field of production of innovative aviation technology we have offered an improved method of program planning, which has been extended with comprehensive tools for identifying, assessing and managing risks objectively exist in the field of aeronautical engineering with a long life cycle. The authors have reviewed the basis for the development of plans and programs for the development of modern aircraft, the basic stages of formation of plans for its establishment; formulated methodological principles for the definition to be included in the work plans; built formalized procedure to account risks arising from the implementation of prepared plans. Practical use of this new method and its tool for implementation will improve the efficiency of the process of substitution of imported aircraft equipment in the domestic counterparts