Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionCurrently, the majority of scientific, technical and economic studies use statistical methods developed mainly in the first third of the XX century. They constitute the content of common textbooks. However, mathematical statistics are rapidly developing in the next 60 years. In some situations there is a need of the transition from classical to modern methods. As an example, we discuss the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We have considered the conditions of applicability of the traditional method of testing the homogeneity based on the use of Student's t-statistic, as well as more up-to-date methods. We describe a probabilistic model of generation of statistical data in the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. In terms of this model the concept of "homogeneity" ("no difference"), can be formalized in different ways. High degree of homogeneity is achieved if the two samples are taken from one and the same population (absolute homogeneity). In some cases it is advisable to testing the coincidence of some characteristics of the elements of the sample - mathematical expectations, medians, variances, coefficients of variation, and others (testing the homogeneity of characteristics). To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations is often recommended classic t-test. It is believed that the samples taken from a normal distributions with equal variances. It is shown that for scientific, technical and economic data the preconditions of two-sample t-test usually are not performed. To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations instead of t-test we have offered to use the Cramer-Welch test. We have considered the consistent nonparametric Smirnov and Lehmann-Rosenblatt tests for absolute homogeneity
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FORECAST OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionForecasting of scientific and technical progress is necessary to make grounded management decisions. In this article, we forecast the development of information and communication technologies in order to solve a particular but important issue of design of professional standards in the aerospace industry. We identify the factors affecting the development of information and communication (computer) technologies, with their help determine the trends of development of these technologies over the next two decades. The main trend - the maximum cheaper production of computer (or network) components, combined with an increase in their capacity. One way to reduce the cost of production is the "centralization" - combining several components into one. The third trend - the desire to reduce the size of computers. The size of a future computer could be a device the size of a pencil, a pin or button, as the system unit has a negligible size, keyboard and display are virtual, transfer any amount of information through a virtual office online. The development of secure free copying will lead to increased use of this free software and technologies "rental program" over the Internet. We predict an increase in reliability and intensive programs while maintaining the general principles of the interface. Revolutionary changes are expected production (machines, sensors), and household appliances
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PREDICTIVE POWER – THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE QUALITY OF THE DIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionInexpediency of use of probability of correct diagnostics as a quality indicator of diagnostic algorithm is shown. The new indicator - the prognostic strength based on Mahalanobis distance between classes is offered and studied. We have found asymptotic distribution of the prognostic strength; the way of testing of adequacy of its application has been specified. In a problem of testing of two simple hypotheses the prognostic strength connection is established with Hellinger distance
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PRODUCTION RISKS AND ECONOMIC HAZARDS OF MODERN HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES
DescriptionThe article shows that when the plans for the creation and production of modern high-tech innovative products for different purposes it is necessary to consider all possible risks and dangers that accompany modern innovative projects. New approaches to the planning of the development of science-intensive industries should ensure that the accounting and the management of risk situations of the financialeconomic, scientific-technical and industrialtechnological character. One of the promising directions of the domestic output of the industrial complex from its current unstable state is a strategic planning and forecasting of its activity, the development strategies should be based on an evaluation of available enterprise resources, the lack of which leads to stagnation. With active government support the company can successfully implement a strategy of stabilization and progress through cooperation and diversification of production and to make a technological breakthrough in creating high-tech products of new generation
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe should have trained staff to implement innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the management processes of innovative activity at the enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP). Training and human resources management in accordance with current legislation should be based on professional standards. The content of professional standards should reflect the results of forecasting scientific and technical progress in the field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to forecast trends in the use of information and communication technologies in solving management problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to reflect these developments in professional standards. The approach to solving this problem is the subject of this article. What should the professional standard be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the near future, its actual impact on the industry will start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional standards should come from "Education through Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills, competences, provided by a professional standard, should be based on modern scientific achievements. For example, mathematical methods of research should be based on a new paradigm in the area of knowledge and statistical data analysis methods must meet high statistical techniques. For the development of professional standards in the field of the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and experience) required the employee to carry out professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030. Modern information and communication technologies are creating a fundamentally new situation in the organization of the economy. We have an ability to manage the work of organizational units, scattered throughout the world, from a single center. The requirement of presence in the workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a lot of advantages in a remote work
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DISTRIBUTIONS OF REAL STATISTICAL DATA ARE NOT NORMAL
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the training courses on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics there are various parametric families of distributions of numerical random variables considered. Namely, we have been studying the families of normal distributions, log-normal distributions, exponential distributions, gamma distributions, Weibull-Gnedenko distributions, etc. All of them depend on one, two or three parameters. Therefore, for a complete description of the distribution it is sufficient to know or estimate one, two or three numbers. Parametric theory of mathematical statistics is widely developed, where it is assumed that the distribution of observations belong to one or another parametric family of distributions. This tradition comes from Karl Pearson, who in the early twentieth century proposed the use of four parametric family of distributions. The above families of distributions - are the subsets of a four-parametric family of Pearson. Unfortunately, parametric families exist only in the minds of the authors of textbooks on probability theory and mathematical statistics. In real life, they are not. Therefore, modern applied statistics and econometrics mainly use non-parametric methods, in which the distribution of observations can have arbitrary form. First, on an example of a normal distribution, we are discussing the impossibility of practical use of parametric families of distributions to describe specific statistical data. We give the results of research of metrologists and estimation of convergence in limit theorems. Then we discuss how the parametric methods can use for reject outlying observations. It is very unstable the significance levels for a fixed rejection rule and the parameter of the rejection rules for a fixed level of significance. Consequently, the rejection of the classic rules of mathematical statistics is not sciencebased
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DISTANCES IN THE SPACES OF STATISTICAL DATA
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe core of applied statistics is statistics in spaces of arbitrary nature, based on the use of distances and optimization problems. This article discusses the various distances in spaces of statistical data, in particular, their conclusions on the basis of appropriate systems of axioms. The conditions and proofs of theorems first published in scientific periodicals
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REAL AND NOMINAL SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS IN STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the statistical hypothesis testing, critical values often point to a priori fixed (nominal) significance levels. As such, typically researcher uses the values of three numbers 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, to which may be added a few levels: 0.001, 0.005, 0.02, and others. However, for the statistics with discrete distribution functions, which, in particular, include all nonparametric statistical tests, the real significance levels may be different from the nominal, differ at times. Under the real significance level we refer to the highest possible significance level of discrete statistics, not exceeding a given nominal significance level (ie, the transition to the next highest possible value corresponding discrete statistical significance level is greater than a predetermined nominal). In the article, we have discussed the difference between nominal and real significance levels on the example of nonparametric tests for the homogeneity of two independent samples. We have also studied two-sample Wilcoxon test, the criterion of van der Waerden, Smirnov two-sample two-sided test, sign test, runs test (Wolfowitz) and calculated the real significance levels of the criteria for nominal significance level of 0.05. The study of the power of these statistical tests is accomplished by means of Monte Carlo method. The main conclusion: the use of nominal significance levels instead of real significance levels for discrete statistics is inadmissible for small sample sizes
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RISKS AND PRIORITIES OF THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL SPACE-ROCKET INDUSTRY
DescriptionBased on risk analysis and consequences of the accidents which have happened to the space equipment from the moment of the beginning of an active phase of space activity, the authors have come to a conclusion that initial stages of life cycle of the project, namely start and a conclusion to an orbit of artificial Earth satellites are subject to the greatest risks. Further functioning of the spacecraft in an orbit is accompanied by much smaller risks, and the least risky are works on service of land infrastructure, processing and information transfer to consumers. Methods of economic protection, which provide acceptance or transfer for a certain payment of risks are not always acceptable for an initial stage of the space project – start and removal into a satellite orbit. Authors suggest evading whenever possible from similar risks for what it is necessary to reduce starts for the benefit of foreign customers. The research of structure of the world space market has shown that such kinds of activity as production of land space infrastructure and rendering services of satellite communication and broadcasting are the most demanded. The market of starting services is gradually reduced in connection with miniaturization of the equipment of satellites and high specific risks of start. The policy of Roskosmos is focused generally on preservation of leadership in starting services which differ in high risks, to the detriment of creation of own satellite group capable to render a wide range of space services to foreign partners. Change of reference points of the strategy of development of the domestic spacerocket industry towards highly profitable and least risky types of space activity is offered
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ROLE OF THE FOREIGN FACTOR IN INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionInfluence of a foreign factor on innovative development of the countries isn't unambiguous, for Russia the foreign capital was rather limiting factor, than incentive to development. The analysis of historical experience of development of domestic science and equipment showed that the maximum innovative activity of economy was noted during the centralized science funding and education. The most important for the invention and opening which found the application in domestic economy, were made times of the state control of processes of development and introduction of new types of production and technologies. As a result of the retrospective analysis, it was revealed that innovative processes in domestic economy in the period of economic sanctions and restrictions especially become more active. In this work, it is shown that the market mechanisms providing free movement of technologies, knowledge, scientists and experts have negative impact on the developing national innovative system. Foreign investments by means of which foreign corporations exercise control over the domestic enterprises have special impact on development and promote capital outflow abroad. It is offered to toughen control of the foreign capital within the current legislation and to promote activation of an exchange of scientific and technical information at the international level