Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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Description
In many areas - the economy, quality management, medicine, the ecology, in safety of flights and others - the problems of analysis, estimation and management of risks have much in common. Therefore, we consider it necessary to develop a general theory of risk. Approaches and methods of this theory will allow in the future solving problems of uniform risk management in specific subject areas. Based on the analysis of scientific publications and industry regulations it must be noted that private risk theories tend to become isolated within themselves, create their own internal standards and systems of regulations. Separately - for banking, separately - for safety, separately - for industrial accidents, etc. In order to construct a general theory of risk we analyze use of the term "risk" in various fields, consider the variety of types of risks, give the basic definitions in the field of analysis, estimation and management of risk. We discuss planetary risks (at Earth as a whole), global risks (at the level of one or more States), financial risks, commercial risks (risks at the level of the immediate environment of the company), and production (internal, operational) risks relating to the activities of individual enterprises (organizations), personal risks. Instruments of total risk theory allow us equally solve the basic problems of analysis, estimation and management of risk for all areas
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn various applications it is necessary to analyze some expert orderings, ie clustered rankings of examination objects. These areas include technical studies, ecology, management, economics, sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects may make samples of the products, technologies, mathematical models, projects, job applicants and others. We obtain clustered rankings which can be both with the help of experts and objective way, for example, by comparing the mathematical models with experimental data using a particular quality criterion. The method described in this article was developed in connection with the problems of chemical safety and environmental security of the biosphere. We propose a new method for constructing a clustered ranking which can be average (in the sense, discussed in this work) for all clustered rankings under our consideration. Then the contradictions between the individual initial rankings are contained within clusters average (coordinated) ranking. As a result, ordered clusters reflects the general opinion of the experts, more precisely, the total that is contained simultaneously in all the original rankings. Newly built clustered ranking is often called the matching (coordinated) ranking with respect to the original clustered rankings. The clusters are enclosed objects about which some of the initial rankings are contradictory. For these objects is necessary to conduct the new studies. These studies can be formal mathematics (calculation of the Kemeny median, orderings by means of the averages and medians of ranks, etc.) or these studies require involvement of new information from the relevant application area, it may be necessary conduct additional scientific research. In this article we introduce the necessary concepts and we formulate the new algorithm of construct the coordinated ranking for some cluster rankings in general terms, and its properties are discussed
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LIMIT THEORY OF NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have studied the asymptotic behavior of a broad class of nonparametric statistics, which includes statistics of omega-square type and Kolmogorov-Smirnov type. Limit theorems have been proved. We have also developed the method of approximation with step functions. With the help of this method we have obtained a number of necessary and sufficient conditions
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ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC APPROACHS TO ESTIMATE THE FEASIBILITY OF INNOVATIVE-INVESTMENT PROJECTS
DescriptionIn this article we propose a general theoretical model of estimation of the feasibility of an innovation-investment project. For specifying a general model to estimate the feasibility of a project we have highlighted the stages of development of projects in the aerospace industry. Organizational-economic approaches to estimation of the feasibility of projects to create rocket and space technology are presented in terms of algorithms. They take into account the specifics of the space industry, by virtue of which such projects have both innovative and investment components
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A MODEL OF THE CONFLICT LINGUISTIC PERSONALITY IN EVERYDAY CONFLICT DISCOURSE
10.00.00 Philological sciences
DescriptionThe aim of the study is to describe the concept of conflict linguistic personality and construct a model of linguistic identity. By summing up common features of the individual personalities we have created the model of conflict linguistic personality, based on three levels: verbal-semantic, cognitive and pragmatic. 1. Verbal - semantic level. Unlike other subtypes of conflict discourse, everyday conflict discourse is characterized by slang, invective, obscene vocabulary. Another feature of everyday conflict discourse is familiarity. Imperatives are also among the characteristic features of conflict. There are also some non-verbal components that play an important role in constructing the model of conflict linguistic personality, such as gestures and mimicry. 2. Cognitive level. Typical conflict linguistic personality rarely tries to mince the words at the peak of the conflict, so his/her cultural level comes "through the language." 3. Pragmatic level. On this level diverse and even opposing tactics are possible depending on the purpose of conflict linguistic personality, as well as his/her social role and psychological state at the moment. The cooperative tactics include: acceptance, conviction, compassion, assignment, promise, etc. Noncooperative tactics include: mockery, accusation, insults, threats, pressure, interruption, provocation
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ON SOME APPROACHES TO ECONOMICMATHEMATICAL MODELING OF SMALL BUSINESS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionSmall business is an important part of modern Russian economy. We give a wide panorama developed by us of possible approaches to the construction of economic-mathematical models that may be useful to describe the dynamics of small businesses, as well as management. As for the description of certain problems of small business can use a variety of types of economic-mathematical and econometric models, we found it useful to consider a fairly wide range of such models, which resulted in quite a short description of the specific models. In this description of the models brought to such a level that an experienced professional in the field of economic-mathematical modeling could, if necessary, to develop their own specific model to the stage of design formulas and numerical results. Particular attention is paid to the use of statistical methods of non-numeric data, the most pressing at the moment. Are considered the problems of economic-mathematical modeling in solving problems of small business marketing. We have accumulated some experience in application of the methodology of economic-mathematical modeling in solving practical problems in small business marketing, in particular in the field of consumer goods and industrial purposes, educational services, as well as in the analysis and modeling of inflation, taxation and others. In marketing models of decision making theory we apply rankings and ratings. Is considered the problem of comparing averages. We present some models of the life cycle of small businesses - flow model projects, model of capture niches, and model of niche selection. We discuss the development of research on economic-mathematical modeling of small businesses
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ADDITIVE-MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL FOR RISK ESTIMATION IN THE PRODUCTION OF ROCKET AND SPACE TECHNICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionFor the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen
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MULTIFORMITY OF OBJECTS OF NON-NUMERICAL NATURE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical statistics the statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature (statistics of nonnumerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is one of the four main areas of mathematical statistics. Statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature consists of a central core - statistics in spaces of arbitrary nature - and statistical theories of analysis of specific types of non-numeric data. To identify possibilities of application of statistics of objects of nonnumerical nature it is useful to explore the multiformity of objects of non-numeric nature. This is the subject of this article. We have considered the results of measurements at scales other than absolute; binary relations; dichotomous (binary) data; sets. We have also analyzed the objects of non-numerical nature as statistical data, and their importance in the formation of statistical or mathematical model of a real phenomenon, as a result of data analysis
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SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY AS THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF THE STATE IDEOLOGY OF RUSSIA
DescriptionAs the economic component of state ideology of Russia we offer a solidary information economy. We have analyzed its main ideas and justified its use as a basic organizational-economic theory instead of “economics”. According to the solidary information economy the modern information technology and decision theory allow, based on the “open network society”, to build information and communication system designed to identify the needs of people and the organization of production in order to meet them
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DETECTION OF DEVIATIONS IN CONTROLLING SYSTEM (FOR EXAMPLE, MONITORING THE LEVEL OF FLIGHT SAFETY)
DescriptionControl charts are proposed to use as a tool to detect deviations in the controlling system. This proposal is considered for monitoring flight safety. Possibility of use in practice of airlines of a new indicator of flight safety level and a new method of its monitoring is discussed. As an indicator the ERC of ARMS group, and as a method of monthly and weekly monitoring – a method of the cumulative sums are offered