Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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PROBABILITY MODELS FOR OBTAINING NON-NUMERICAL DATA
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the model of the sample as a set of independent identically distributed random variables. In this article we have considered the basic probabilistic models for obtaining non-numeric data. Namely, the models of dichotomous data, results of paired comparisons, binary relations, ranks, the objects of general nature. We have discussed the various options of probabilistic models and their practical use. For example, the basic probabilistic model of dichotomous data - Bernoulli vector (Lucian) i.e. final sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, for which the probabilities of success may be different. The mathematical tools of solutions of various statistical problems associated with the Bernoulli vectors are useful for the analysis of random tolerances; random sets with independent elements; in processing the results of independent pairwise comparisons; statistical methods for analyzing the accuracy and stability of technological processes; in the analysis and synthesis of statistical quality control plans (for dichotomous characteristics); the processing of marketing and sociological questionnaires (with closed questions like "yes" - "no"); the processing of socio-psychological and medical data, in particular, the responses to psychological tests such as MMPI (used in particular in the problems of human resource management), and analysis of topographic maps (used for the analysis and prediction of the affected areas for technological disasters, distributing corrosion, propagation environmentally harmful pollutants, various diseases (including myocardial infarction), in other situations), etc.
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NONPARAMETRIC KERNEL ESTIMATORS OF PROBABILITY DENSITY IN THE DISCRETE SPACES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionSome estimators of the probability density function in spaces of arbitrary nature are used for various tasks in statistics of non-numerical data. Systematic exposition of the theory of such estimators has been started in our articles [3, 4]. This article is a direct continuation of these works [3, 4]. We will regularly use references to conditions and theorems of the articles [3, 4], in which introduced several types of nonparametric estimators of the probability density. We have studied linear estimators. In this article, we consider particular cases - kernel density estimates in discrete spaces. When estimating the density of the one-dimensional random variable, kernel estimators become the Parzen-Rosenblatt estimators. Under different conditions, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of kernel density estimators. We have introduced the concept of "preferred rate differences" and are studied nuclear density estimators based on it. We have introduced and studied natural affinity measures which are used in the analysis of the asymptotic behavior of kernel density estimators. Kernel density estimates are considered for sequences of spaces with measures. We give the conditions under which the difference between the densities of probability distributions and of the mathematical expectations of their nuclear estimates uniformly tends to 0. Is established the uniform convergence of the variances. We find the conditions on the kernel functions, in which take place these theorems about uniform convergence. As examples, there are considered the spaces of fuzzy subsets of finite sets and the spaces of all subsets of finite sets. We give the condition to support the use of kernel density estimation in finite spaces. We discuss the counterexample of space of rankings in which the application of kernel density estimators can not be correct
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PREDICTION METHODS FOR THE ROCKET AND SPACE INDUSTRY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have allocated the basic sources of uncertainty in various industrial and economic situations. We have also considered the role and the tasks of forecasting in the management of industrial companies, particularly in the rocket and space industry. We have discussed the methods of organizational and economic forecasting - statistical, expert, combined, including foresight and given some suggestions for improving the forecasting and planning mechanisms for practical use when creating space systems
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn practical use of methods of applied statistics we do not apply separate methods for describing data, estimation, testing hypotheses, but we must use deployed whole procedures - the so-called "statistical technology". The concept of "statistical technology" is similar to the concept of "technological process" in the theory and practice of organization of production. It is quite natural that some statistical technology can better meet the needs of the researcher (user, statistics) than others, some - are modern, and others - outdated, some properties are studied, and the others - no. It is important to stress that a qualified and efficient use of statistical methods - this is not one single statistical hypothesis testing and estimation of characteristics or parameters of a given distribution from fixed family. This kind of operations - only the individual building blocks that make up the statistical technology. The procedure of the statistical data analysis - is an information process, in other words, one or other information technology. Statistical information is subject to a variety of operations (series, parallel, or more complex schemes). In this article we discuss statistical technologies and the problem of "docking" algorithms. We introduce the concept of "high statistical technologies" and then we prove the necessity of their development and application. As the examples we have given the researches of Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We have also considered a number of education problems in domain of high statistical technologies
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ESTIMATION OF INFLATION ON THE BASIS OF INDEPENDENT INFORMATION
DescriptionThis article is devoted to the investigations of our research team built for independent collection and examination the information about prices, ie to study the real inflation. The approach to measuring the rise in prices is based on selecting and fixing tool of economists and managers - the consumer basket which does not change during the time. On the basis of physiological consumption norms of the Institute of Nutrition (Russian Academy of medical Sciences) we made up the minimum consumer basket, ie we set annual consumption on food staples required to maintain normal functioning of the human body. In 1993-2015 we carried out an independent price collection. We obtained values of the consumer basket and inflation indices. We give the comparison with the data of official statistics. Our work is aimed at the elimination of Rosstat's monopoly in calculating the index of inflation, the minimum subsistence level and the real disposable income of the population. Using the same consumer basket makes it possible to compare the results of calculations for different time periods. That is why our works compare favorably to the approach of the official statistics. We have given a more detailed analysis of inflation in the XXI century. We have also briefly reviewed the use of inflation indices in the analysis of problems of households, organizations and production firms, as well as the country as a whole
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the USSR higher attestation Commission from 1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated not to the Ministry of education and science, but to the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly. However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual reduction of the status of the Commission. Today it is not just included in the Ministry of education, it is just one of the units of one of its structures: the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC, has reached the point when a few years ago there were abolished salary increments for them. Now, instead of that, every university and research institutes have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable with each other scientometric methods of evaluation of the results of scientific and teaching activities. Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate role of the h-index. The value of the Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the protection, when considering competitive cases for positions, as well as in determining the monthly rewards for the results of scientific and teaching activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically. However, in connection with the practice of its application in our conditions, in the collective consciousness of the scientific community there was a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania". This mania is characterized by elevated unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index, as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e. inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as well as a number of negative consequences of that interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the extent of improper manipulation of the value of the Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation. The article presents a technique for all the numerical calculations, which is simple enough for any author to use
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Description
The analysis of social and economic development of countries in the conditions of the globalization of the world economy which is carried out with the use of thermo-dynamical model showed that interaction of the open economic systems standing on different levels of development can lead to absorption or destruction of one systems by others that finally will lead to "thermal death" in economy (stagnation). The closed economic systems can communicate with other countries by means of international trade. Less developed countries can't compete with industrially developed states and will inevitably get under their influence. The isolated economic systems can develop only in the presence of domestic market, resources and rigid social structure. Introduction of the anti-Russian sanctions and other external factors led to restriction of the influence of the foreign capital. Innovative activity in economy and strengthening of government institutions might be observed as a result. The thermo-dynamical model shows that partial isolation of the developing economic system possessing sufficient production and scientific potential leads to stabilization of its structure and growth of the innovative activity
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COMPUTER-STATISTICAL METHODS: STATE AND PROSPECTS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have analyzed the current state of the main computer-statistical methods, identified achievements and existing problems, outlined the prospects of further movement and formulated the problems to be solved. We have also discussed the Monte Carlo methods, pseudo-random numbers, simulation, bootstrap and resampling, the automated system-cognitive analysis. We have considered the applications of computer statistics in controlling and properties of statistical packages as the tools for researchers
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SCIENCE AS THE OBJECT OF MANAGEMENT
DescriptionScience is considered as a branch of the national economy. We discuss the relationship of areas of human activity, applied science and fundamental science. As an example, the development of the fundamental theory of decision-making and expertise are considered in the implementation of applied researches in the aviation and rocket-space industry. Is emphasized that the major achievement in science - the novelty of the results. We discuss the problem of estimation the effectiveness of scientific activity, the advantages and disadvantages of estimates based on bibliometric databases and citation indices, we show the basic role of expert technologies. Is examined the role of globalization and patriotism in the development of science. Is substantiated the principal difference between acquiring knowledge and promote research results. We consider it necessary to conduct detailed studies into the science of science and development based on these science-based recommendations for the management of science
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INTERCONNECTION LIMIT THEOREMS AND MONTE-CARLO METHOD
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe purpose of mathematical statistics is development of methods for the data analysis intended to solve applied problems. Over time, approaches to the development of data analysis methods have changed. A hundred years ago, it was assumed, that the distributions of the data have a certain type, for example, they are normal distributions, and on that assumption they developed a statistical theory. The next stage, in the first place in theoretical studies there are limit theorems. By "small sample" we mean a sample, which can not be applied to conclusions based on the limit theorems. In each statistical problem there is a need to divide the final sample sizes into two classes - those for which you can apply the limit theorems, and those for which you can not do it because of the risk of incorrect conclusions. To solve this problem we often used the Monte Carlo method. More complex problems arise when studying the effect on the properties of statistical procedures for data analysis of various deviations from the original assumptions. To study such impact, we often used the Monte Carlo method as well. The basic (and not solved in a general way) problem of the study of the stability of the findings in the presence of deviations from the parametric families of distributions is the problem of choosing some distributions for using in modeling. We consider some examples of application of the Monte Carlo method, relating to the activities of our research team. We have also formulated basic unsolved problems