Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS IN SMALL PRODUCTION COMPANIES AT EARLY LIFECYCLE STAGES
DescriptionIn 1970 in the journal publications of "Forbes" and "Business week" the term of "startup" appeared, which later became popular in the scientific and business literature. Startups are the organizations, which create a new product or service under conditions of high uncertainty. In the last 25-30 years, due to Russia's transition from a planned economy to the mixed, many researchers and practitioners in the field of management, economics and entrepreneurship are concerned of some questions of small business, including production. It is particularly acute problem of deaths of Russian small businesses: only three out of a hundred small businesses manage to survive for more than 3 years. In addition, one of the main reasons, why we have such statistics, is management deficiencies and administrative errors, which are studied in this article. We are primarily interested in small manufacturing plants and problems of development in the early stages of the life cycle. In the literature, it has been given just little attention. A small production company is a company associated with the production organization or incorporation of the product / technology in the production process. We regard the small production companies at an early stage of development, working in the field of mechanical engineering, instrumentation, energy, telecommunications, robotics, materials production. In this work, we analyze the first foreign and then domestic research on small business, discuss the problems of management of small industrial enterprises in the early stages of the life cycle (based on the results of our questionnaire studies) and as an example, consider the story of a startup - All-Union Center of statistical methods and Informatics of Central Board of the All-Union economic society (now - Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
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DISTRIBUTIONS OF REAL STATISTICAL DATA ARE NOT NORMAL
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the training courses on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics there are various parametric families of distributions of numerical random variables considered. Namely, we have been studying the families of normal distributions, log-normal distributions, exponential distributions, gamma distributions, Weibull-Gnedenko distributions, etc. All of them depend on one, two or three parameters. Therefore, for a complete description of the distribution it is sufficient to know or estimate one, two or three numbers. Parametric theory of mathematical statistics is widely developed, where it is assumed that the distribution of observations belong to one or another parametric family of distributions. This tradition comes from Karl Pearson, who in the early twentieth century proposed the use of four parametric family of distributions. The above families of distributions - are the subsets of a four-parametric family of Pearson. Unfortunately, parametric families exist only in the minds of the authors of textbooks on probability theory and mathematical statistics. In real life, they are not. Therefore, modern applied statistics and econometrics mainly use non-parametric methods, in which the distribution of observations can have arbitrary form. First, on an example of a normal distribution, we are discussing the impossibility of practical use of parametric families of distributions to describe specific statistical data. We give the results of research of metrologists and estimation of convergence in limit theorems. Then we discuss how the parametric methods can use for reject outlying observations. It is very unstable the significance levels for a fixed rejection rule and the parameter of the rejection rules for a fixed level of significance. Consequently, the rejection of the classic rules of mathematical statistics is not sciencebased
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THE PROBLEM OF RESEARCH OF FINAL RANKING FOR GROUP OF EXPERTS BY MEANS OF KEMENY MEDIAN
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn various applications, it is necessary to analyze several expert orderings, i.e. clustered rankings objects of examination. These areas include technical studies, ecology, management, economics, sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects can be some samples of products, technologies, mathematical models, projects, job applicants and others. In the construction of the final opinion of the commission of experts, it is important to find clustered ranking that averages responses of experts. This article describes a number of methods for clustered rankings averaging, among which there is the method of Kemeny median calculation, based on the use of Kemeny distance. This article focuses on the computing side of the final ranking among the expert opinions problem by means of median Kemeny calculation. There are currently no exact algorithms for finding the set of all Kemeny medians for a given number of permutations (rankings without connections), only exhaustive search. However, there are various approaches to search for a part or all medians, which are analyzed in this study. Zhikharev's heuristic algorithms serve as a good tool to study the set of all Kemeny medians: identifying any connections in mutual locations of the medians in relation to the aggregated expert opinions set (a variety of expert answers permutations). Litvak offers one precise and one heuristic approaches to calculate the median among all possible sets of solutions. This article introduces the necessary concepts, analyzes the advantages of median Kemeny among other possible searches of expert orderings. It identifies the comparative strengths and weaknesses of examined computational ways
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ECONOMETRICS AS AN ACADEMIC DISCIPLINE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionStatistical methods are widely used in domestic feasibility studies. However, for most managers, economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is due to the fact that modern statistical methods are not taught in the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing on the statistical methods for economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of researches in econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific and practical work and especially the teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often, individual particular constructions replace econometrics in general, such as those related to regression analysis. The article is devoted to econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course begins with a discussion of the structure of modern econometrics, the connections between applied statistics and econometric methods. We consider sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity. We have given the concepts of regression analysis, econometric classification methods, modern measurement theory. The important places are occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data (including fuzzy sets and their links with random sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem of the stability of statistical procedures with respect to the tolerances of input data and model prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the econometric methods of expert research and quality control, analysis and forecasting of time series, econometrics of forecasting and risks are given
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PROBLEMS OF RESOURCE ENSURING INNOVATIVE MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionRealization of the objects set in the Strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation depends on the level of resource providing the projects and programs entering it. In this work, types of resources and a possibility of their effective use are analyzed. Russia possesses practically all types of natural resources and the labor potential necessary for a country conclusion in leaders of world economy. The problem consists in inefficient use of these resources, which are distributed in the directions, deadlock for our country. During the analysis which is carried out by means of production function it is established that return from investments into mining industry is much lower, than from capital investments in the productions which are turning out competitive, innovative products with high value added. Important task is distribution of resources in the priority directions of Strategy among which there is no astronautics, of a nuclear power engineering, aircraft, those branches where still there is a scientific and technical reserve and there were qualified personnel. The analysis of historical experience showed that the country achieved the greatest success in post-war years when command methods carried out mobilization of all necessary resources for achievement of a goal. In the modern market conditions it is offered to finance the initial stages of life cycle of innovative projects from public funds, and on closing stages to raise funds from investors by means of tools of public-private partnership
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ABOUT THE NEW PARADIGM OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF RESEARCH
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was represented by a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management. We consider it necessary to develop organizational and economic support for solving specific application area, such as the space industry, start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods. The same requirements apply to the teaching of the respective disciplines. In the development of curricula and working programs, we must be based on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. In this study, we present the basic information about a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. We start with a brief formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in this article focuses primarily on the scientific field of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economy", including organizational and economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the basic concepts. We talk about the development of a new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical methods of research. We give information about the educational literature, prepared in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of researches
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RISKS AND PRIORITIES OF THE STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL SPACE-ROCKET INDUSTRY
DescriptionBased on risk analysis and consequences of the accidents which have happened to the space equipment from the moment of the beginning of an active phase of space activity, the authors have come to a conclusion that initial stages of life cycle of the project, namely start and a conclusion to an orbit of artificial Earth satellites are subject to the greatest risks. Further functioning of the spacecraft in an orbit is accompanied by much smaller risks, and the least risky are works on service of land infrastructure, processing and information transfer to consumers. Methods of economic protection, which provide acceptance or transfer for a certain payment of risks are not always acceptable for an initial stage of the space project – start and removal into a satellite orbit. Authors suggest evading whenever possible from similar risks for what it is necessary to reduce starts for the benefit of foreign customers. The research of structure of the world space market has shown that such kinds of activity as production of land space infrastructure and rendering services of satellite communication and broadcasting are the most demanded. The market of starting services is gradually reduced in connection with miniaturization of the equipment of satellites and high specific risks of start. The policy of Roskosmos is focused generally on preservation of leadership in starting services which differ in high risks, to the detriment of creation of own satellite group capable to render a wide range of space services to foreign partners. Change of reference points of the strategy of development of the domestic spacerocket industry towards highly profitable and least risky types of space activity is offered
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METHODS OF REDUCING SPACE DIMENSION OF STATISTICAL DATA
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionOne of the "points of growth" of applied statistics is methods of reducing the dimension of statistical data. They are increasingly used in the analysis of data in specific applied research, such as sociology. We investigate the most promising methods to reduce the dimensionality. The principal components are one of the most commonly used methods to reduce the dimensionality. For visual analysis of data are often used the projections of original vectors on the plane of the first two principal components. Usually the data structure is clearly visible, highlighted compact clusters of objects and separately allocated vectors. The principal components are one method of factor analysis. The new idea of factor analysis in comparison with the method of principal components is that, based on loads, the factors breaks up into groups. In one group of factors, new factor is combined with a similar impact on the elements of the new basis. Then each group is recommended to leave one representative. Sometimes, instead of the choice of representative by calculation, a new factor that is central to the group in question. Reduced dimension occurs during the transition to the system factors, which are representatives of groups. Other factors are discarded. On the use of distance (proximity measures, indicators of differences) between features and extensive class are based methods of multidimensional scaling. The basic idea of this class of methods is to present each object as point of the geometric space (usually of dimension 1, 2, or 3) whose coordinates are the values of the hidden (latent) factors which combine to adequately describe the object. As an example of the application of probabilistic and statistical modeling and the results of statistics of non-numeric data, we justify the consistency of estimators of the dimension of the data in multidimensional scaling, which are proposed previously by Kruskal from heuristic considerations. We have considered a number of consistent estimations of dimension of models (in regression analysis and in theory of classification). We also give some information about the algorithms for reduce the dimensionality in the automated system-cognitive analysis
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DEVELOPMENT OF SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY
DescriptionWe are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article summarizes the first phase of work on the solidary information economy. We have analyzed the array of publications. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle
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Description
The article describes a new approach to the assessment of the economic system. The authors propose to assume that the system grows, if its share in the world production increases. For the qualitative assessment, we have offered to analyze the dynamics of growth of exports of products with high benefit to the foreign countries, which include engineering goods, defense, manufacturing materials. On the world market of hightech products, we have the stiff competition and the growth of exports of domestic products with high benefit indicates high level of innovation. Based on the analysis of available statistical data, we revealed a correlation between exports of innovative products, the volumes of financing research and development and foreign direct investment in the national economy. It was determined foreign capital has a negative impact on exports of products with high benefit. The authors proposed a two-factor regression model, which allows you to make short-term forecasts and allocate resources. The study showed that despite the ongoing economic sanctions and unsuccessful economic reforms in the past, Russia has a high potential for innovation, which is activated when reducing the influence of foreign capital. Attempts to isolate the Russian economic system led to the mobilization of resources and the growth of innovation activity of domestic business