Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
-
RUSSIAN SCIENTIFIC SCHOOL IN THE ECONOMETRICS FIELD
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have considered the formation of the Russian scientific school in the field of econometrics, obtained its obtained scientific results, the possibilities of their use in solving problems of the economy, the organization of production and controlling of industrial companies and organizations, as well as in teaching. As econometrics we consider a scientific and an academic discipline devoted to the development and application of statistical methods to study economic phenomena and processes, in short, statistical methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the works by the author of this publication from the beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics. However, in this article we consider only the works, in the titles of which we can see the word of "econometrics". In our country the term "econometrics" has become popular since the mid 90s. However, many publications and training courses are still developed in the western outdated paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm of mathematical methods of economics, the new paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian science school in the field of econometrics operates within the scientific school in the field of probability theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N. Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods. It is necessary to examine the main results of Russian scientific schools in the field of econometrics. We present the information on the institutional design of national scientific schools in econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the Institute of High Technologies statistics and econometrics
-
MOVING FORWARD TO ARISTOTLE: WE MUST BE FREE FROM THE PERVERSIONS OF ECONOMIC THEORY
DescriptionThe founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions. What can replace the "market economy"? We are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article describes the main provisions of solidary information economy, intended to replace the market economy as a management tool. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle
-
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionAdequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI
-
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionFuzzy sets are the special form of objects of nonnumeric nature. Therefore, in the processing of the sample, the elements of which are fuzzy sets, a variety of methods for the analysis of statistical data of any nature can be used - the calculation of the average, non-parametric density estimators, construction of diagnostic rules, etc. We have told about the development of our work on the theory of fuzziness (1975 - 2015). In the first of our work on fuzzy sets (1975), the theory of random sets is regarded as a generalization of the theory of fuzzy sets. In non-fiction series "Mathematics. Cybernetics" (publishing house "Knowledge") in 1980 the first book by a Soviet author fuzzy sets is published - our brochure "Optimization problems and fuzzy variables". This book is essentially a "squeeze" our research of 70-ies, ie, the research on the theory of stability and in particular on the statistics of objects of non-numeric nature, with a bias in the methodology. The book includes the main results of the fuzzy theory and its note to the random set theory, as well as new results (first publication!) of statistics of fuzzy sets. On the basis of further experience, you can expect that the theory of fuzzy sets will be more actively applied in organizational and economic modeling of industry management processes. We discuss the concept of the average value of a fuzzy set. We have considered a number of statements of problems of testing statistical hypotheses on fuzzy sets. We have also proposed and justified some algorithms for restore relationships between fuzzy variables; we have given the representation of various variants of fuzzy cluster analysis of data and variables and described some methods of collection and description of fuzzy data
-
Description
The practice of separate financing of projects of civil and defensive nature, which has been developed in Russia, requires, in the conditions of an aggravation of an international situation, increase in costs for carrying out researches and developments what to go a heavy burden on the federal budget. The analysis of international experience shows that industrially developed countries successfully solved this problem by means of distribution of dual-use technologies. The special effect is reached in space activities where dual-use technologies are widely used in the organization of communication, broadcasting and monitoring of the land surface. In the article, policy of usage of military technologies in civil sector of economy of the USA, Germany and China is analyzed. The policy of distribution of dual-use technologies leads to decrease in load of the budget and promotes attraction of a private equity in researches and developments. The main directions are conversion, sale of information from military companions to the commercial organizations and acquisition by military of information from commercial companions here. Backwardness of the market relations, impracticality of controlling mechanisms, developments and carrying out scientific and technical policy and other problems can become the main obstacle in a way to distribution of dual-use technologies in Russia. However, instability of the revenues of the Russian budget caused by volatility of the prices of energy resources and other external factors puts the most important priority of national economic policy development and distribution of double technologies
-
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe consider the methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used types of tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. The goal - to choose the most effective tool. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as appointments to senior positions. The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article
-
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe should have trained staff to implement innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the management processes of innovative activity at the enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP). Training and human resources management in accordance with current legislation should be based on professional standards. The content of professional standards should reflect the results of forecasting scientific and technical progress in the field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to forecast trends in the use of information and communication technologies in solving management problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to reflect these developments in professional standards. The approach to solving this problem is the subject of this article. What should the professional standard be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the near future, its actual impact on the industry will start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional standards should come from "Education through Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills, competences, provided by a professional standard, should be based on modern scientific achievements. For example, mathematical methods of research should be based on a new paradigm in the area of knowledge and statistical data analysis methods must meet high statistical techniques. For the development of professional standards in the field of the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and experience) required the employee to carry out professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030. Modern information and communication technologies are creating a fundamentally new situation in the organization of the economy. We have an ability to manage the work of organizational units, scattered throughout the world, from a single center. The requirement of presence in the workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a lot of advantages in a remote work
-
SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY - THE ECONOMY WITHOUT MARKET AND MONEY
DescriptionWe are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy. Further development of our theory is the subject of this article. We begin with a brief review of the economic views of Aristotle and the basic ideas of solidary information economy. Then are substantiated the withering away of the Family, Private Property and the State. We discuss the evolution of money - from gold coins to IOUs and conventional units of circulation. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the functionalist organic information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and information-communication technologies earthlings can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term "economy" according to Aristotle
-
PROBABILISTIC-STATISTICAL MODELING THE INTERFERENCES FROM ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe movements of electric locomotives create the interferences affecting the wired link. The creation of sufficiently technical effective and at the same time cost-effective means of protection from wireline interferences generated traction networks assumes as a preparatory phase to develop mathematical models of interference caused by electric locomotives. We have developed a probabilistic-statistical model of interferences caused by electric locomotives. The asymptotic distribution of the total interference is the distribution of the length of the two-dimensional random vector whose coordinates - independent normally distributed random variables with mean 0 and variance 1. Limit theorem is proved for the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences. Monte-Carlo method is used to study the rate of convergence of the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences to the limiting value. We used an algorithm of mixing developed by MacLaren-Marsaglia (M-algorithm). Five sets of amplitudes are analyzed, selected in accordance with the recommendations of experts in the field of traction AC networks. The most rapid convergence to the limit takes place in the case of equal amplitudes. It was found that the maximum possible average value of the amplitude of the random noise by 7.4% less than the previously used value, which promises a significant economic impact
-
ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN CONTROL OF INDUSTRIAL AND ECOLOGICAL SAFETY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWhen considering the ecological safety of industrial productions, territory, etc., we usually allocate the constant (permanent) risk and the accident (emergency) risk. Permanent risk is given by the used technology, and cannot be changed substantially. Emergency risks are associated with uncertainty, in contrast to the constant risks. Let in adopted mathematical model the uncertainty is probabilistic in nature, and the loss describes as one-dimensional random variable. The distribution function of the loss, as a rule, is not normal. We have discussed in detail the seven characteristics of accidental loss: expectation; median and, more generally, quantile; dispersion; standard deviation; coefficient of variation; a linear combination of the expectation and standard deviation; the expectation of the loss function. Risk management may be to minimize these characteristics and their combinations (in different variants of multicriteria optimization). For example, in the two-criteria formulation it is required to minimize the expectation of loss and the standard deviation. Two-criteria formulation one way or another is reduced to a one-criteria formulation. In addition to probabilistic methods of risk modeling, sometimes we consider methods for describing risk using by means of objects of non-numeric nature, in particular qualitative characteristics, concepts of the theory of fuzzy sets, interval mathematical and econometric models and other mathematical tools. The main problems of the theory and practice of ecological insurance have been discussed