Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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STATISTICAL MODELS IN MEDICINE
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe article is devoted to the discussion of the organization of clinical-statistical studies and experiments. We have considered the examples of the application of statistical methods in scientific medical research. Under the clinical-statistical research we understand specially organized collection and analysis of medical data about the course of disease in patients, research of the dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic effects. We study one, two or more groups of individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are drawn on the whole group, but not for each individual patient. The purpose of research - to transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical study focused on the production of useful recommendations concerning those patients who fall into the field of view of doctors after the end of the study. There are two main types of research - prospective and retrospective. The first related to the analysis of the last patients, the second - to monitoring the course of their disease in the future. We have considered typical mistakes in the organization of clinical-statistical studies. When planning a research, we usually distinguish the experimental and control groups, which are identical or similar in all respects except for the studied factors (exposure). We discuss the various options for blind methods and consider the application of statistical models and methods in scientific medical research. We have analyzed examples of confidence estimation of proportion (probability) and the homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case of small probability. With its help, we analyze statistical data on the opisthorchiasis
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STATISTICAL METHODS IN HISTORY
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe have given a critical analysis of statistical models and methods for processing text information in historical records to establish the times when there were certain events, ie, to build science-based chronology. There are three main kinds of sources of knowledge of ancient history: ancient texts, the remains of material culture and traditions. The specific date of the extracted by archaeologists objects in most cases can not be found. The group of Academician A.T. Fomenko has developed and applied new statistical methods for analysis of historical texts (Chronicle), based on the intensive use of computer technology. Two major scientific results were: the majority of historical records that we know now, are duplicated (in particular, chronicles, describing the so-called "Ancient Rome" and "Middle Ages", talking about the same events); the known historical chronicles tell us about real events, separated from the present time for not more than 1000 years. It was found that chronicles describing the history of "ancient times" and "Middle Ages" and the chronicle of Chinese history and the history of various European countries do not talk about different, but about the same events. We have the attempt of a new dating of historical events and restoring the true history of human society based on new data. From the standpoint of statistical methods of historical records and images of their fragments – they are special cases of non-numeric objects of nature. Therefore, developed by the group of A.T. Fomenko computer-statistical methods are the part of non-numerical statistics. We have considered some methods of statistical analysis of chronicles applied by the group of A.T. Fomenko: correlation method of maximums; dynasties method; the method of attenuation frequency; questionnaire method codes. New chronology allows us to understand much of the battle of ideas in modern science and mass consciousness. It becomes clear the root cause of cautious attitude of the West towards Russia
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NON-NUMERICAL DATA STATISTICS IS A CENTRAL PART OF MODERN APPLIED STATISTICS
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn 1979, non-numerical data statistics was singled out as an independent area of applied statistics. Initially, the term "statistics of objects of non-numerical nature" was used to denote this area of mathematical methods of economics. Our basic non-numeric statistics textbook is called "Non-Numeric Statistics". Non-numerical data statistics is one of the four main areas of applied statistics (along with number statistics, multidimensional statistical analysis, statistics of time series and random processes). Statistics of non-numerical data are divided into statistics in spaces of a general nature and sections devoted to specific types of non-numerical data (statistics of interval data, statistics of fuzzy sets, statistics of binary relations, etc.). Currently, statistics in spaces of a general nature is the central part of applied statistics, and non-numeric data statistics including it is the main area of applied statistics. This statement is confirmed, in particular, by the analysis of publications in the section "Mathematical Research Methods" of the journal "Industrial Laboratory. Diagnostics of Materials" - the main place of publication of russian studies on applied statistics. This article is devoted to the analysis of the basic ideas of non-numerical data statistics against the background of the development of applied statistics from the perspective of a new paradigm of mathematical research methods. Various types of non-numeric data are described. The historical path of statistical science is analyzed. We have discussed the development of statistics of non-numerical data. The article analyzes basic ideas of statistics in spaces of a general nature: average values, laws of large numbers, extreme statistical problems, nonparametric estimates of the probability density, classification methods (diagnostics and cluster analysis), statistics of the integral type. Some statistical methods for analyzing data lying in specific spaces of non-numeric nature are briefly considered: non-parametric statistics (real distributions usually differ significantly from normal), statistics of fuzzy sets, theory of expert estimates (the Kemeny median is a sample average of expert orderings), etc. We have also discussed some unsolved problems in statistics of nonnumeric data
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionFuzzy sets are the special form of objects of nonnumeric nature. Therefore, in the processing of the sample, the elements of which are fuzzy sets, a variety of methods for the analysis of statistical data of any nature can be used - the calculation of the average, non-parametric density estimators, construction of diagnostic rules, etc. We have told about the development of our work on the theory of fuzziness (1975 - 2015). In the first of our work on fuzzy sets (1975), the theory of random sets is regarded as a generalization of the theory of fuzzy sets. In non-fiction series "Mathematics. Cybernetics" (publishing house "Knowledge") in 1980 the first book by a Soviet author fuzzy sets is published - our brochure "Optimization problems and fuzzy variables". This book is essentially a "squeeze" our research of 70-ies, ie, the research on the theory of stability and in particular on the statistics of objects of non-numeric nature, with a bias in the methodology. The book includes the main results of the fuzzy theory and its note to the random set theory, as well as new results (first publication!) of statistics of fuzzy sets. On the basis of further experience, you can expect that the theory of fuzzy sets will be more actively applied in organizational and economic modeling of industry management processes. We discuss the concept of the average value of a fuzzy set. We have considered a number of statements of problems of testing statistical hypotheses on fuzzy sets. We have also proposed and justified some algorithms for restore relationships between fuzzy variables; we have given the representation of various variants of fuzzy cluster analysis of data and variables and described some methods of collection and description of fuzzy data
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AVERAGE VALUES AND RULES OF LARGE NUMBERS IN THE SPACES OF ARBITRARY ORIGIN
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe new results of the sample average values in different spaces and rules of large numbers for them are given in the article. We also introduced the weighted average values of type I corresponding to the sample, and type II, corresponding to the set of order statistics. The evolution of ideas about the Kemeny distance and the Kemeny median is traced. The modified Kemeny median, convenient for computation and avoiding the effect of the "center of the bagel hole" is proposed. As a generalization of the Kemeny median, we introduced and studied the empirical and theoretical values in the spaces of arbitrary origin. For them, we proved the rules of large numbers
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SOME PROBLEMS OF SOCIALECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT IN MODERN ECONOMY
DescriptionClassical economic textbooks assume that the effect of a particular company on the environment is infinitely small, in particular, that resources required for an industrial firm are available, and it's only the price to be paid for their involvement. For a large corporation, the situation is quite different. It converts the environment by means of its activity. Objectively existing resource limits are become important. The effects are increased when we consider the economy as a whole thing. Therefore, we have the obvious need for careful consideration of management problems in the real process of interaction between the economy, society and environment. This article is devoted to some approaches to this consideration. We have demonstrated that the economy is the servant of society. In all the economical developed countries in the twentieth century the role of the state in the economy has been increased in 3-5 times. We have discussed the influence of the modern ecological situation on the economy and management. In particular, we predict the end of private enterprise in the classical meaning. We examined the social-ecological aspects of management of the state and personnel of the firm. Discussion of Russian problems we begin with an analysis of the dynamics of the main economic and demographic indicators of Russia, including the total fertility rate in Russia. The system of scenarios of population projections for the period up to 2050 shows the inevitability of significant reduction in the Russian population (in the absence of intensive management actions). We describe two basic scenarios of solving socio-ecological conflicts
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STATE AND PROSPECTS OF APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionThe general scheme of modern statistical science is just like this. Mathematical Statistics is a part of mathematics that studies the statistical structure (it itself does not give recipes analysis of statistical data, however, it is developing methods that are useful for use in theoretical statistics). Theoretical Statistics - the science dedicated to the models and methods of analysis of concrete statistical data. Applied Statistics (in the narrow sense) is devoted to the statistical techniques of data collection and processing (it includes the methodology of statistical methods, the organization of sample surveys, the development of statistical techniques, the creation and use of statistical software). Applications of statistical methods in concrete fields (in economics and management - Econometrics, in biology - Biometrics, in chemistry - Chemometrics, in technical research - Technometric, in geology, demography, sociology, medicine, history, etc.). Often positions 2 and 3 together are called Applied Statistics. Sometimes position 1 is called Theoretical Statistics. These terminological differences are related to the fact that the above-described development of the considered scientific and applied field not once, not completely and not always adequately reflected in the minds of experts. Meanwhile, there are still textbooks of appropriate level of representation of the mid-twentieth century. The article analyzes the post-war development of the national statistics. We have identified five "growth points": nonparametrics, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of non-numeric data. We have discussed content, development and the basic ideas of statistics of nonnumeric data. We have given a number of unresolved problems of theoretical and applied statistics
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SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY AS THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF THE STATE IDEOLOGY OF RUSSIA
DescriptionAs the economic component of state ideology of Russia we offer a solidary information economy. We have analyzed its main ideas and justified its use as a basic organizational-economic theory instead of “economics”. According to the solidary information economy the modern information technology and decision theory allow, based on the “open network society”, to build information and communication system designed to identify the needs of people and the organization of production in order to meet them
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SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY - THE ECONOMY WITHOUT MARKET AND MONEY
DescriptionWe are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy. Further development of our theory is the subject of this article. We begin with a brief review of the economic views of Aristotle and the basic ideas of solidary information economy. Then are substantiated the withering away of the Family, Private Property and the State. We discuss the evolution of money - from gold coins to IOUs and conventional units of circulation. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the functionalist organic information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and information-communication technologies earthlings can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term "economy" according to Aristotle
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MODERN ECONOMETRIC METHODS - INTELLECTUAL TOOLS OF ENGINEERS, MANAGERS AND ECONOMISTS
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionStatistical methods are widely used in domestic feasibility studies. However, for most managers, economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is because modern statistical methods are not taught in the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing on the statistical methods for economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in Economics are awarded to series of researches in econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific and practical work and especially the teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often, individual particular constructions replace econometrics in general, such as those related to regression analysis. In econometrics we select three types of scientific and applied activities: development and study of methods of applied statistics, taking into account the specifics of economic data; development and study of econometric models, in accordance with the specific needs of economic science and practice; the use of econometric methods for statistical analysis of specific economic data. This article describes these three types of scientific and applied activities. We discuss the specificity of economic data. We show the importance of economic non-numeric values. We discuss the statistics of interval data - scientific direction at the joint of metrology and statistics. We give the representation of the econometric models. Problems of application of econometric methods are considered as an example of inflation. We discuss the statistics and econometrics as the field of scientific and practical activities. We have examined econometric methods in practical and training activities