Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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DISTRIBUTIONS OF REAL STATISTICAL DATA ARE NOT NORMAL
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionIn the training courses on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics there are various parametric families of distributions of numerical random variables considered. Namely, we have been studying the families of normal distributions, log-normal distributions, exponential distributions, gamma distributions, Weibull-Gnedenko distributions, etc. All of them depend on one, two or three parameters. Therefore, for a complete description of the distribution it is sufficient to know or estimate one, two or three numbers. Parametric theory of mathematical statistics is widely developed, where it is assumed that the distribution of observations belong to one or another parametric family of distributions. This tradition comes from Karl Pearson, who in the early twentieth century proposed the use of four parametric family of distributions. The above families of distributions - are the subsets of a four-parametric family of Pearson. Unfortunately, parametric families exist only in the minds of the authors of textbooks on probability theory and mathematical statistics. In real life, they are not. Therefore, modern applied statistics and econometrics mainly use non-parametric methods, in which the distribution of observations can have arbitrary form. First, on an example of a normal distribution, we are discussing the impossibility of practical use of parametric families of distributions to describe specific statistical data. We give the results of research of metrologists and estimation of convergence in limit theorems. Then we discuss how the parametric methods can use for reject outlying observations. It is very unstable the significance levels for a fixed rejection rule and the parameter of the rejection rules for a fixed level of significance. Consequently, the rejection of the classic rules of mathematical statistics is not sciencebased
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionWe should have trained staff to implement innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the management processes of innovative activity at the enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP). Training and human resources management in accordance with current legislation should be based on professional standards. The content of professional standards should reflect the results of forecasting scientific and technical progress in the field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to forecast trends in the use of information and communication technologies in solving management problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to reflect these developments in professional standards. The approach to solving this problem is the subject of this article. What should the professional standard be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the near future, its actual impact on the industry will start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional standards should come from "Education through Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills, competences, provided by a professional standard, should be based on modern scientific achievements. For example, mathematical methods of research should be based on a new paradigm in the area of knowledge and statistical data analysis methods must meet high statistical techniques. For the development of professional standards in the field of the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and experience) required the employee to carry out professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030. Modern information and communication technologies are creating a fundamentally new situation in the organization of the economy. We have an ability to manage the work of organizational units, scattered throughout the world, from a single center. The requirement of presence in the workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a lot of advantages in a remote work
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PRODUCTION RISKS AND ECONOMIC HAZARDS OF MODERN HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES
DescriptionThe article shows that when the plans for the creation and production of modern high-tech innovative products for different purposes it is necessary to consider all possible risks and dangers that accompany modern innovative projects. New approaches to the planning of the development of science-intensive industries should ensure that the accounting and the management of risk situations of the financialeconomic, scientific-technical and industrialtechnological character. One of the promising directions of the domestic output of the industrial complex from its current unstable state is a strategic planning and forecasting of its activity, the development strategies should be based on an evaluation of available enterprise resources, the lack of which leads to stagnation. With active government support the company can successfully implement a strategy of stabilization and progress through cooperation and diversification of production and to make a technological breakthrough in creating high-tech products of new generation
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PREDICTIVE POWER – THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE QUALITY OF THE DIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionInexpediency of use of probability of correct diagnostics as a quality indicator of diagnostic algorithm is shown. The new indicator - the prognostic strength based on Mahalanobis distance between classes is offered and studied. We have found asymptotic distribution of the prognostic strength; the way of testing of adequacy of its application has been specified. In a problem of testing of two simple hypotheses the prognostic strength connection is established with Hellinger distance
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FORECAST OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionForecasting of scientific and technical progress is necessary to make grounded management decisions. In this article, we forecast the development of information and communication technologies in order to solve a particular but important issue of design of professional standards in the aerospace industry. We identify the factors affecting the development of information and communication (computer) technologies, with their help determine the trends of development of these technologies over the next two decades. The main trend - the maximum cheaper production of computer (or network) components, combined with an increase in their capacity. One way to reduce the cost of production is the "centralization" - combining several components into one. The third trend - the desire to reduce the size of computers. The size of a future computer could be a device the size of a pencil, a pin or button, as the system unit has a negligible size, keyboard and display are virtual, transfer any amount of information through a virtual office online. The development of secure free copying will lead to increased use of this free software and technologies "rental program" over the Internet. We predict an increase in reliability and intensive programs while maintaining the general principles of the interface. Revolutionary changes are expected production (machines, sensors), and household appliances
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01.00.00 Physical-mathematical sciences
DescriptionCurrently, the majority of scientific, technical and economic studies use statistical methods developed mainly in the first third of the XX century. They constitute the content of common textbooks. However, mathematical statistics are rapidly developing in the next 60 years. In some situations there is a need of the transition from classical to modern methods. As an example, we discuss the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. We have considered the conditions of applicability of the traditional method of testing the homogeneity based on the use of Student's t-statistic, as well as more up-to-date methods. We describe a probabilistic model of generation of statistical data in the problem of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. In terms of this model the concept of "homogeneity" ("no difference"), can be formalized in different ways. High degree of homogeneity is achieved if the two samples are taken from one and the same population (absolute homogeneity). In some cases it is advisable to testing the coincidence of some characteristics of the elements of the sample - mathematical expectations, medians, variances, coefficients of variation, and others (testing the homogeneity of characteristics). To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations is often recommended classic t-test. It is believed that the samples taken from a normal distributions with equal variances. It is shown that for scientific, technical and economic data the preconditions of two-sample t-test usually are not performed. To test the homogeneity of mathematical expectations instead of t-test we have offered to use the Cramer-Welch test. We have considered the consistent nonparametric Smirnov and Lehmann-Rosenblatt tests for absolute homogeneity
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PROBLEMS OF FORMATION OF THE PROGRAM OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROCKET SPACE INDUSTRY
DescriptionIn this work, the authors investigate practice of application of a program and a target method in planning and management of the space industry. The carried-out analysis has shown that modern methods of formation of programs in space activity do not correspond to the basic principles of program and target planning. Programs of the leading organizations of Roskosmos represent a set of actions, which are poorly coordinated among themselves. The purposes of the program are washed away or not designated absolutely. Lack of definite purposes of the program leads to problems in a result assessment, to decrease in efficiency of use of resources and lag in development from world technological level. The country has already lost leadership in the market of starting services, problems with rendering communication services and broadcasting are observed, the share of the domestic space-rocket industry in the world market of space services decreases. The authors suggest considering a main objective of the program of innovative development growth of competitiveness of the domestic space-rocket industry measured in increase in a share of the Russian production and services in the world space market. The authors believe that the country has the sufficient innovative potential for reduction of lag from leaders of the world space market
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MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS IN SMALL PRODUCTION COMPANIES AT EARLY LIFECYCLE STAGES
DescriptionIn 1970 in the journal publications of "Forbes" and "Business week" the term of "startup" appeared, which later became popular in the scientific and business literature. Startups are the organizations, which create a new product or service under conditions of high uncertainty. In the last 25-30 years, due to Russia's transition from a planned economy to the mixed, many researchers and practitioners in the field of management, economics and entrepreneurship are concerned of some questions of small business, including production. It is particularly acute problem of deaths of Russian small businesses: only three out of a hundred small businesses manage to survive for more than 3 years. In addition, one of the main reasons, why we have such statistics, is management deficiencies and administrative errors, which are studied in this article. We are primarily interested in small manufacturing plants and problems of development in the early stages of the life cycle. In the literature, it has been given just little attention. A small production company is a company associated with the production organization or incorporation of the product / technology in the production process. We regard the small production companies at an early stage of development, working in the field of mechanical engineering, instrumentation, energy, telecommunications, robotics, materials production. In this work, we analyze the first foreign and then domestic research on small business, discuss the problems of management of small industrial enterprises in the early stages of the life cycle (based on the results of our questionnaire studies) and as an example, consider the story of a startup - All-Union Center of statistical methods and Informatics of Central Board of the All-Union economic society (now - Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
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PROBLEMS OF RESOURCE ENSURING INNOVATIVE MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
DescriptionRealization of the objects set in the Strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation depends on the level of resource providing the projects and programs entering it. In this work, types of resources and a possibility of their effective use are analyzed. Russia possesses practically all types of natural resources and the labor potential necessary for a country conclusion in leaders of world economy. The problem consists in inefficient use of these resources, which are distributed in the directions, deadlock for our country. During the analysis which is carried out by means of production function it is established that return from investments into mining industry is much lower, than from capital investments in the productions which are turning out competitive, innovative products with high value added. Important task is distribution of resources in the priority directions of Strategy among which there is no astronautics, of a nuclear power engineering, aircraft, those branches where still there is a scientific and technical reserve and there were qualified personnel. The analysis of historical experience showed that the country achieved the greatest success in post-war years when command methods carried out mobilization of all necessary resources for achievement of a goal. In the modern market conditions it is offered to finance the initial stages of life cycle of innovative projects from public funds, and on closing stages to raise funds from investors by means of tools of public-private partnership
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Description
The basic ideas of non-formal informational economy of the future (NIEF) are analyzed. Its use as the base organizational-economic theory in exchange «economics» is proved. Core of researches in the field of the NIEF is forecasting of development of the future society and its economy, working out of organizational-economic methods and models, necessary for the future and intended for increase of efficiency of managerial processes. The economy is a science how to make, instead of, how to divide profit. The basic kernel of the modern economic theory is an engineering economy