№ 115(1), January, 2016
Public date: 27.01.2016
Archive of journal: Articles count 86, 182 kb
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Description
The article describes a new approach to the assessment of the economic system. The authors propose to assume that the system grows, if its share in the world production increases. For the qualitative assessment, we have offered to analyze the dynamics of growth of exports of products with high benefit to the foreign countries, which include engineering goods, defense, manufacturing materials. On the world market of hightech products, we have the stiff competition and the growth of exports of domestic products with high benefit indicates high level of innovation. Based on the analysis of available statistical data, we revealed a correlation between exports of innovative products, the volumes of financing research and development and foreign direct investment in the national economy. It was determined foreign capital has a negative impact on exports of products with high benefit. The authors proposed a two-factor regression model, which allows you to make short-term forecasts and allocate resources. The study showed that despite the ongoing economic sanctions and unsuccessful economic reforms in the past, Russia has a high potential for innovation, which is activated when reducing the influence of foreign capital. Attempts to isolate the Russian economic system led to the mobilization of resources and the growth of innovation activity of domestic business
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Description
The article substantiates the need for an accelerated informatization of the national system of professional development for science-intensive and high-tech industries, as one of the important components of the process of reforming the Russian economy. It was determined that under current conditions a decisive role in ensuring the successful operation of enterprises science-intensive and high-tech industries provides highly qualified personnel - the intellectual capital, which is formed in the process of training specialists within the system of continuous professional education and training (CPEandT). We show new capabilities of training a contingent of specialists in science-intensive and high-tech industries, offered by the introduction and expansion of use in system of CPEandT and modern educational technology (MET). We found reasonable prospect of the transition from reproductive to creative model of the organization of skills development. They are implemented mainly by a variety of electronic educational resources (EER), which are used for the development of various technologies. The article presents results of the comparative analysis of new and traditional technologies for the development of ESM and shows their role in the methodical maintenance of process of professional development. It is proved that the introduction of the EER within MET in CPEandT system radically changes the interaction of professionals and qualified teachers with contingent specialists of science-intensive and high-tech industries, and contributes to the effective organization of skills development
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MODELING OF MODERN TRENDS IN RISKORIENTED AUDIT WITH THE APPLICATION OF BAYES THEOREM
DescriptionThere are many ways to improve the decisionmaking process, but, with a big amount of data and complexity of decision-making trees, it's becoming more and more complicated to keep up with the flow of information coming from many spheres of modern life. Therefore, the development of various problemsolving approaches has become an important step in changing the face of existing technological systems. This idea appeared in the work of an American scientist J. Perl who, in 1988, founded a new probabilistic approach to artificial intelligence and developed principles of Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies. In the article, the most valuable parts of the given topic have been reviewed, cognitive maps have been compared with their partial manifestation - Bayesian Network; also, one of the options to practically use such models in the audit field has been analyzed by observing a possible decision-making process of giving a modified or unmodified opinion
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Description
The article examines the main trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as it analyzes the structure and the dynamics of the inflow of foreign direct investment in Russia and the Republic of Tatarstan. The emergence of new investment projects and the increase in production volume are due to receiving investments in the country and in the region. Unfortunately, there are still problems in the way of receipt of investments in the Russian economy and its subjects, which are formulated in the article and that require solutions. On an example of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan we have analyzed an inflow of foreign direct investments for 2010 – 2013, as well as the dynamics, sectoral and geographical structure of income from investments. We consider the strategy of attracting foreign investors to the region on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan. The article proposes key measures aimed at improving the investment climate, improving the competitiveness of industries. All these activities will positively contribute to the inflow of foreign investments into the economy of the country and its regions. Foreign direct investment can serve as a mechanism for increasing Russia's competitiveness in the global economy, and help to integrate into the international economic system more active
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THE FEATURES OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE STATE REGULATION OF SMALL RURAL FARMING
DescriptionThe features of the process of functioning, development and regulation of agricultural growth of small agrarian farming forms (SAFF) with the participation of the state are discussed. It is noted that systematization of features of small agricultural farms plays a big role in the increasing of economic efficiency and state regulation. It is said that in certain circumstances, the same features can have both positive and negative, problematic impact, so the authors conducted their separate classification. They consider a great influence of SAFF on local development, rural employment, tax and social preferences, opportunities of cooperation, low costs and risks to create new jobs, informal management, combining the functions of manager and owner in one person, a high sensitivity to government regulation, protection of the population from the local monopoly of employers, selfdevelopment, responsibility, self-defense from external factors, and others to be positive. But SAFF work in the environment of perfect competition in the absence of market power, low, often only declared security, an underdeveloped industrial infrastructure of small farms, a high probability of unauthorized interference from shadow entities, supervisory bodies, local bureaucracy, institutional limitations in the access to information, counseling material and financial resources, low mobility, small size of economy, high dependence on local conditions, capacity of local raw material and consumer market, limited distribution channels, permanent market volatility, distrust of the practice of production and consumer cooperatives, the scarcity of capital, problematic accessibility to financial instruments, the high cost of credit, low legitimacy, the credibility of the decisions of the local bureaucracy is considered to be negative
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THE NATURE, GROWTH STAGES AND DIRECTIONS OF SMALL AGRARIAN FARMING
DescriptionIt is said, that small agrarian economy takes an important place in the market economy, creates new jobs, new sources of income in excessing labor resources of the rural sector .The transformational stages of small business development, motivation of starting up cooperation, conditions of formation of mixed economy is discussed. The development of diverse economic forms is considered here. The main ones are: small agricultural farms with low technical and energy equipment of labor, low level of mechanization and high level of manual labor. Small agricultural businesses were developed in the provision of production services in agriculture; the production of small agricultural forms of management that are embedded in a complex system of relations between technological specialization with medium and large businesses; small farms, which are independently or in cooperation aimed at commercial implementation, development and realization of innovations. It is shown that today's best practices in support of small business implement a number of avenues to reduce tax contributions to the pension funds of entities that use high technology; the use of tax holidays on property; the abolition of tax on profits of small industries, obtained through the sale of paper funds and other assets; the extension of preferential privatization rented small industries of real estate, with exemption from payment of tax on value added; the provision of annual financial aid packages to small businesses; the transfer to the budgets of the municipalities collected payment for the sale of patents from small entrepreneurial activity and other areas of support. The necessity of improving the economic instruments, replacement of the existing inefficient structure of domestic small entities, a greater motivation in creating new jobs, raising the living level of participants of subjects of small forms of managing
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CYCLIC RECURRENCE ASSESSMENT OF GRAIN YIELD TIME SERIES USING PHASE ANALYSIS INSTRUMENTS
DescriptionAn algorithm of phase analysis as the instrument of nonlinear dynamics' methods used to study cyclic recurrence of time series is viewed in current article. The existing classical econometric methods for estimating cyclic recurrence developed for random systems which dynamics matches to the normal distribution. However, there also exists non-random systems characterized by trends, periodic and non-periodic cycles called quasicycles. An example of computing process of identifying quasicycles is illustrated on time series of all grain yields in Russia for the last 119 years. Phase portrait of this time series is illustrated in twodimension space. As a result, the phase portrait consists of 22 frequently unstable quasicycles which tottality forms a strange attractor. Quasicycles have quantitative (length) and quality (configuration) characteristics. Their combination defines very important characteristic called trend-stability. Phase analysis is a powerful form of analysis of time series to assess cyclic recurrence and is a tool for pre-forecasting analysis. Fuzzy sets' mathematical apparatus is also used in this article. An algorithm of formation of fuzzy sets' quasicycles' length is also presented here. Quasicycles' statistics are presented in tables, geometric patterns and in the form of fuzzy sets
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Description
The article reveals the basic concepts, purpose and classification of HRM systems used to manage the organization's staff. The analysis of the international and Russian market of HRM-systems and selected alternatives (seven information systems) of this class focused on the Russian practice of large and mediumsized businesses has been performed. The process of implementing an information system involves selecting the system that best suited to the needs of the business. For this purpose, there were developed evaluation criteria of information systems and their importance for the company. This stage of research was conducted through a survey of experts from among the University staff and practitioners. As a result, we have obtained the matrix of evaluations of alternative information systems of HRM and selected class "1C: Salary and personnel management 8". Research demos of the selected HRM system allowed developing a functional model, presented in the form of complex diagrams of cases of modeling language UML 2.0. The developed diagrams clearly reflect the allocated subsystems and their functions, as well as the relationship between the actors of the process and system functions. Summarizing the experience of implementing similar systems, we composed a smartchart showing the main stages of its implementation. The results have practical value and can be used by companies of the considered business segment as specific recommendations
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TRENDS IN POULTRY PRODUCTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
DescriptionThe article examines the factors, which influence the formation of the market of poultry production. Agricultrual producers have developed diversified business channels, which depend on the nature of the economic interests of the owners of farms, local market conjuncture, the level of development of its own product processing and logistics structures. The growing share of imports has created a tangible threat to food security and the increasing dependence of megalopolises and big cities on import, in addition long-term relationaships have been destroyed within the existing socialist system, increased prices disparity. Only at the beginning of the 21st century Russian poultry industry started to get rid of the consequences of liberal market reforms. In many ways, the development of industry were contributed by the realization of the priority national project «Development of agriculture» and by the State program of development of agriculture and regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2008-2012. However, the modernization of poultry subcomplex was mainly catching and accompanied by increasing dependence on imports cross, equipment, premixes and feed. Poultry organizations have high debt on loans, subsidies for reimbursement of the cost of interest com unevenly, putting poultry farms in a disastrous situation. In 2014, Russia has 21 region – poultry donor (where the volume of domestic production exceeds consumption) and 61 recipient regions (where the volume of domestic production is less than consumption)
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EXPECTED PROFIT OPTIMIZATION OF CONSULTING COMPANY USING THE METHODS OF DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING
DescriptionThe article presents the methods of specialists’ distribution for a consulting company between its projects in accordance with the methodology of dynamic programming for expected profit maximization. For its implementation, a mathematical model is being formed with nonlinear objective function and linear restrictions. The non-linearity of the objective function is due to the specifics of consulting companies and their size. The model includes probability parameters determined by expert evaluations method based on previous experience of the company in the analogical works and describing successful implementation of each project in its portfolio. Then the parameter and function of the state, satisfying recurrence are considered and linear replacement is performed to reserve a minimum number of experts on each job. The article gives a hypothetical example of a consulting company, including in its portfolio five projects with the mentioned profits in case of their success. On its basis, the developed method is implemented as a 5-step procedure of modeling of unknown parameters. Economic impact of the methods’ application is estimated . The developed model and method can be used by specialists in consulting companies, as well as in service industries