№ 122(8), October, 2016
Public date: 31.10.2016
Archive of journal: Articles count 85, 207 kb
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COGNITIVE MODELS OF PREDICTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION
Description
The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
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THE RATIONALE FOR SELECTING THE METHOD OF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION
Description
Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation
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Description
The concept of the research is to justify the necessity to develop the regulatory declared dispositive basis in the system of social, ecological and economic management of the urbanized areas within the environmental system of the region, through the improvement of organizational-economic management mechanism of region natural resources and understanding the tools of this mechanism. The administrative-territorial formations are specific due to the necessity of being them considered in terms of socio-economic development as well as in the context of ecological and economic development of the territory that is connected with the necessity to ensure its sustainable socio-economic development. Ecological and economic management of cities and other urbanized areas are of the entire spectrum of public relations in the sphere of natural resources use and protection. The study of the city as the ecological and economic system is based on a number of conceptual problems in the applied management methods that ignore the general specificity of cities as the urban areas and sites of ecological - economic management, regardless of their level - single-industry towns, big cities or cities of regional importance. The ongoing soil degradation can affect the living conditions of future generations. The soil damage is caused mainly by industrial enterprises, being in various forms of ownership nowadays, including private. The improvement of legislation on soil protection from industrial pollution is a very relevant issue
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Description
The main index of land fertility is a content of humus in soil. Soil researches of the last 40-50 years confirm the decrease of humus in Kuban black soils, reduction of humus horizon capacity. Land relations are realized in the process of agrarian production. It is necessary to develop the main trends of organizational-economic mechanism including the elements of market and state regulation for their improvement. There was offered a mechanism of distribution of state support of agrarian producers of the Krasnodar region allowing to stimulate the arrangements on increase of agricultural land fertility. Increasing the level of humus in soil on 0,1 % there was recommended to add more 20% from it to the calculated subsidies, on 0,2% - to add 40%, on 0,3%-60% and so on. These data on measurements will allow increasing the interest of land users in preservation and increase of fertility of agricultural lands. Agricultural soil fertility reproduction can be achieved at the expense of introduction of organic fertilizers as manure. At the reduction of livestock in agricultural organizations of the Krasnodar region one of the ways of compensation of soil fertility is a proper selection of agricultural crops in the crop rotation and securing of optimal structure of sowing areas. There was calculated an economic-mathematical model of linear programming allowing determining the optimal content of agricultural crops and sizes of sowing areas supplying with deficit-free balance of humus at more economic efficiency to obtain the yearly increased per hectare subsidies
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THE ESSENCE AND THE STAGES OF THE STATE REGULATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
Description
The author shows the classification of the stages of development of state regulation of agrarian economy, consisting of four blocks; and provides a brief description of them. There are shown the boundaries of state authority regulation, which are defined by legal, legislative, budgetary, tax, social, and environmental functions of the state. Methods of regulation with participation of the state are divided into direct (administrative) and indirect (economic). Economic and administrative tools have some similarities and common features, and, at the same time, they are the opposed. The author notes the predominance of economic methods, at the same time dividing five areas of economics, in which the use of administrative methods is compulsory to achieve the condition of balanced development of agrarian economy. With that being said, it is very important to: have governmental control over monopolistic markets, prevent negative impact on non-renewable resources, environment, and ecological situation; as well as maintaining acceptable living standards of the rural population. A special place takes the support of international trade links, politics of a moderate protectionism for the protection of agricultural markets with customs barriers, export licensing, import control policy. It is noted that the indirect intervention of the government in the agricultural economy implies the implementation of a system of measures affecting external and internal economic environment. Here, the authors refer fiscal policy by manipulating the state budget, government spending and taxation, measures of credit regulation, monetary and investment policy, regulation of the system of labor recruitment, employee income, and other tools
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ANALYTICAL TOOLS OF VECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET
Description
In rapidly changing conditions of the modern world, analysts and decision makers are in need to use new formal means of analysis and evaluation of alternatives problems. This work is dedicated to the development of such tools. The article presents a detailed analysis and technical and economic characteristics of the subject area - the financial market and its specific components - the value of a time series of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and two kinds of exchange rates: EUR / RUB, USD / RUB. The authors have proposed a 5-criteria economic-mathematical model of the main components of the ranking of the financial market. The authors argue the impossibility of using a single integrated set of criteria for the replacement of the criteria or the use of criteria convolution procedures as the standard procedure of solving the problem of multi-criteria optimization. It demonstrates that such criteria as criteria for "risk" must be considered as an estimate of the degree of deviation from the expected value of the possible values of this criterion. The practical significance of the results is determined by the fact that the main points, conclusions, recommendations, models and methods can be used in order to improve the management and planning of development strategies of banking systems, trading platforms, as well as by developers of information and analytical systems to support management decisionmaking
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DEMAND DETERMINANTS ON THE RUSSIAN PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN THE CONDITIONS OF SANCTIONS
Description
This article investigates the problem of drug supply in Russia during the financial and economic crisis. One of the priority tasks of the state should be providing the population with quality and affordable medicines. Low competitiveness of Russian drugs and substances, the lack of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry have led to high import-dependent on the Russian pharmaceutical market, which constitutes a threat to the economic security of Russia. On the one hand, the import of drugs and substances is one of the main factors of development and functioning of the pharmaceutical industry in Russia at present, but the existing structure of foreign trade of medicines and pharmaceutical substances testifies to the import of drug dependence. Of particular relevance is considered in this article the issue of import substitution in the pharmaceutical industry in terms of EU and us economic sanctions and financial crisis in Russia. The sharp fall of the ruble led to the destabilization of the Russian economy and consequently to higher prices for medicines and decrease in purchasing power, despite the fact that drugs are commodities of inelastic demand. With the aim of improving the competitiveness of domestic products and increases their market share in the Russian pharmaceutical market necessary to implement a number of economic and legal measures aimed at improving the system of state regulation of import of medicinal products
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ESSENCE OF ECONOMIC POTENTIAL AND A SYSTEM OF INDICATORS OF ITS ASSESSMENT
Description
In the market conditions, the key to survival and the basis of the provisions of the stability of any business entity is financial stability. Its achievement is possible by improving the efficiency of economic activities, which is achieved when the rational use of all kinds of resources and reduce costs. The important role in realization of this task has been given to the economic potential of the control system. Therefore, the economic potential of the analysis and evaluation of the topic, i.e. efficient use of all resources, is relevant at this stage of development of the domestic economy. Studying the nature resources as a basis for economic development, identifying their sources, development of ways, forms and methods of their use allow us to formulate the principles of activation of economic policy for the intensification of economic processes. In the conditions of growing complexities of the Russian economy the definition of resource capacities should be a priority in the development strategy of any business entity, region, industry. One of the most important branches of the material production of the Krasnodar region is agriculture. Today's reality is that the consumption of many food products is still below the science-based standards, and import dependence exceeds the allowable criteria of food security, despite the fact that the number of rejected and lowered in grade imported food products is quite large
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Description
The article is devoted to the search and development of new models of structural changes. The results of these studies correct the activity of the major sugar integrated production systems of sugar subcomplex in the agro industrial subcomplex. The article reveals the problem of formation of an integrated methodology for analysis of structural changes in the economy of AIC, denoted with indicators and macroeconomic parameters of the sugar subcomplex, which need to be considered in the evaluation of structural changes. We set the task of developing a new tool of mathematical statistics, solving a range of problems for identifying non-stationary time series (NSTS) of the “beginning” of new super cycles (sets of cycles). In the economy the classic solution to this problem is in the field of detection of non-equilibrium effect of delayed reaction to earlier technological change, changes in foreign trade conditions, low mobility of labor and capital, and the various barriers to free competition. From our point of view, the ideal solution corresponds to the detection channel offset and the verification of dynamic series for homogeneity, i.e. the presence of phase transitions. The structural shift in the economy can be seen as a qualitative change in the system, consisting in the replacement of the previously existing ties between its constituent parts with new ones. Such shifts are due to the uneven development of the various elements of the economic system, they indicate that there are changes in the needs of subjects of economic life and economic resources. The author proposes a control parameter of the analysis, which uses methods to determine structural changes (tests Pettitte, Buishand and Alexandersson). The article deals with structural changes in the sugar industry of agriculture. The analyzed period is according to different categories from 60 to 180 years. The presence of structural changes is investigated by indicators such as the amount of sown areas, gross harvest, yield of sugar beet and sugar production from sugar beets and cane. We have investigated the theoretical and methodological approaches, the existing methods for the analysis of structural shifts in the economy and their impact on reproductive processes, their classification is given. We have identified key issues of improving efficiency and quality of transforming the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex. The article shows the dynamics of indicators of the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex of Russia and other countries of the world for different periods of time and its impact on sugar subcomplex of AIC. The author has proposed an adaptive algorithm and model test for homogeneity (structural shift) for integrated production systems that focus on sugar subcomplex of AIC. This method has been tested by the author in relation to economic systems (at various levels) of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex of Russia, other countries and the world at large. Along with this, the author has proposed (we have developed a hierarchical analysis of structural changes) to use the identification of clusters for each category of sugar subcomplex with attraction of mathematical apparatus in the form of tests for homogeneity. We have marked indicators and parameters for the analysis of structural shift, the main reasons for this phenomenon. The results of empirical studies carried out have confirmed the possibility of practical use of the developed analysis
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Description
The article deals with methods of visual-graphic analysis (technical analysis) and a possibility of adapting them to the conditions (indicators) of the sugar subcomplex from the position of integrated production systems (IPS). It should be noted that technical analysis is very popular. Thanks to the advent of powerful processors for computers and inexpensive software, trade analysts have access to technical analysis tools. The topic is becoming increasingly relevant in connection with the high pace of the global economic community. Visual graphical analysis (technical analysis), as well as its latest methods (indicators) that are adapted to modern economic conditions, are sort of the primary "blueprints" for the more complex forecasting tools, without which none of the analyst can do. Separating statistics from mathematics as an independent unit occurred after the development and start of mass use of tools visual graphical analysis (VGA) in various applied Sciences. The main feature of the prediction is the decision of the tasks, which are implemented in the algorithm of sequential nonparametric model. This indicates the improving the validity of information when predicting performance of IPS SP AIC. For a more General (objective) picture of the forecasting activities of IPS SP you need to apply this analysis in combination with other tools, such as hierarchical analysis of structural change and of correlation and spectral analysis. According to the forecasts obtained with the help of the indicators VGA, countries such as Brazil and India over time, waiting for the "overheating" of the economy due to unprecedented growth in the volume of growing sugar cane and manufacturing raw sugar. However, it is not necessary to consider the visual-graphic analysis as a perfect tool for forecasting market trends. Technical analysis should be seen as a tool for analysis and forecasting, which uses as the basis for short-term forecasting (benchmark) for operational decision-making by managers as a major sugar holdings, and the Ministry of agriculture
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