Kuban State University
Author list of organization
List of articles written by the authors of the organization
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FINANCIAL RISK WARNING AT OIL PRODUCTION COMPANIES
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThis article is devoted to a problem of effective management of a financial and economic condition of companies on the example of the enterprises of oil products supply. We consider questions of support of adoption of management decisions which concern stabilization of a financial condition of the company and as a result of decrease in financial risks. The article also provides a description of the program complex called FESP_ON developed by the authors allowing to carry out the profound complex assessment of a financial and economic condition of Societies of oil products supply
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn the article, we develop the methodology of strategic planning and management of the holding on the theoretical basis of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis). This methodology provides scientific research of any holding by creating and researching its model. The methodology includes both the synthesis, adaptation and verification of system-cognitive models of the holding, and the use of these models for strategic planning and decision support for managing the holding, as a complex, multiparametric, nonlinear system. The relevance of the research is due to the special role of holdings and other corporate integrated structures both in Russia as a whole and, in particular, in the Krasnodar region. Despite obvious system advantages, holdings face a wide range of problems related to management efficiency, ensuring their sustainable functioning, etc. The proposed methodology offers ways to solve these problems and can be successfully applied in holdings and other corporate integrated structures of various regions, volumes and areas of activity, which determines the relevance of the research topic. The level of significance and scientific novelty of the Research consists in the development of conceptual and theoretical and methodological provisions aimed at managing the development of holdings. The expected results and their significance are that the methodology developed as a result of the Research can be applied by holding companies and other corporate integrated structures and will significantly improve the quality of their management
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05.13.10 Management in social and economic systems
DescriptionOne of the key problems facing medicine is the correct diagnosis given in a timely manner. For all the existence of medicine, humanity has accumulated a lot of knowledge in this area. According to this knowledge, new specialists are trained. But there is so much information that it is sometimes impossible to find the right information in it in time, and this can cost the person who came to see a doctor very expensive. In this specialist comes to the rescue computer. Information technologies, training in information bases perfectly cope with the task of identifying the disease and providing the most appropriate information
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05.13.18 Mathematical modeling, numerical methods and software complexes
DescriptionThe article presents ways to estimate the socio-economic condition of the subjects of the Russian Federation using fuzzy production systems, discriminant analysis and neural networks. This study is based on the thirteen indicators of the socio-economic condition of the regions of the Russian Federation identified by RIA Rating rating agency. The goal of the work is to develop a software package combining the estimation methods above and allowing to get three alternative estimation options for a subject of the Russian Federation, using these thirteen indicators. The developed program assigns each region an estimation from the following set: AAA– the highest socio-economic condition, AA - very high, A– high, BBB– above average, BB– average, B– below average, CCC– low, CC– very low, C– the lowest indicators of the socio-economic conditions in the region of the Russian Federation. The software package is developed in Matlab and has an intuitive interface. The results can be used as an alternative to current methods of estimation of the socio-economic indicators
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThis article is devoted to rating assessment of the socio-economic situation of the Krasnodar region, presented by such agencies as "RAEKS-Analytics", "Expert RA" and "National Rating Agency". The methodologies used by these agencies were studied and analyzed. A comparison of these methodologies was also conducted. As a result, a number of their shortcomings were identified, including the lack of a complete methodological model in the public domain. Some agencies do not provide links to statistics that are used in the analysis. In the article using the STATISTICA environment, a statistical analysis of data reflecting the level of socio-economic situation of the Krasnodar region is carried out. Based on the work [12], the article created a discriminant model for assessing the socio-economic development of urban districts of the Krasnodar region with a confidence of 85%. The study conducted a cluster, discriminant, classification (decision trees), coefficient (proposed by the authors) based on the data of the Federal State Statistics website for the period from 2009 to 2018 in the city districts: Krasnodar, Anapa, Armavir, Gelendzhik, Goryachiy Klyuch, Novorossiysk Sochi. During the study, analyzes such as cluster and classification trees showed poor results, since they are not able to detect latent nonlinear relationships between the study indicators. Using the constructed discriminant model, we have carried out an analysis of the socio-economic development of urban districts of the Krasnodar region for the period 2009-2018, which allows us to identify the leaders and the outsiders
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SCORING SYSTEM BASED ON INFORMATION-COGNITIVE MODELING
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionOne of the key problems facing the credit institution is the late payment of the loan. Firstly, it is a deeper analysis - in order to be carried out “manually” it is not even required several days, but weeks. Secondly, it allows you to work with clients much faster. And most importantly scoring allows you to negate the influence of the human factor. An automated system, no matter how you look, cannot be liked or not. Data analysis is only based on facts. Scoring is beneficial to all. The bank is able to work faster and reduce the risk of loan defaults. Clients, in turn, can apply for a loan on terms that are more favorable
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe article provides a comparative analysis of assessments of the socio-economic development of the Krasnodar region from such well-known rating agencies as Standard & Poors, Moody’s, Fitch Ratings, which belong to the United States of America. The studied ratings are compared with the ratings of the national agency of the Russian Federation called “Expert RA”. The values of the established ratings are examined, as well as number of possible reasons why the ratings of the United States of America differ from the ratings of the Russian Federation, for example, economic and political reasons, and, subsequently, how these ratings affect the investment attractiveness of the Krasnodar region. The article explains positive and negative aspects of the integrated methodology used by international rating agencies, consisting of software and expert opinion, the level of access to it for study and analysis. We study another (local) source of information on the investment attractiveness of the Krasnodar region, which is a state institution, namely the Department of Investments and Development of Small and Medium Enterprises of the Krasnodar region. Options are proposed for improving the system of analysis of statistical data through methods that are based on a clear mathematical approach to provide an adequate assessment of the region and municipalities without the influence of subjective expert opinion
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STRATEGIC PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF A HOLDING BASED ON INFORMATION AND COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGIES
08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionIn the article, we develop the methodology of strategic planning and management of a holding, on the theoretical basis of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis). This methodology provides scientific research of any holding by creating and researching its model. The methodology includes both the synthesis, adaptation and verification of system-cognitive models of the holding, and the use of these models for strategic planning and decision support for the management of the holding, as a complex, multiparametric, nonlinear system. The relevance of the research is due to the special role of holdings and other corporate integrated structures both in Russia as a whole and, in particular, in the Krasnodar region. Despite obvious system advantages, holdings face a wide range of problems related to management efficiency, ensuring their sustainable functioning, etc. The proposed methodology offers ways to solve these problems and can be successfully applied in holdings and other corporate integrated structures of various regions, volumes and areas of activity, which determines the relevance of the research topic. The level of significance and scientific novelty of the Research consists in the development of conceptual and theoretical and methodological provisions aimed at managing the development of holdings. The expected results and their significance are that the methodology developed as a result of the Research can be applied by holding companies and other corporate integrated structures and will significantly improve the quality of their management
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08.00.13 Mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics
DescriptionThe article discusses the use of machine learning methods and fuzzy production systems for studying the social and economic development of urban districts, areas and settlements of the Krasnodar region. The fundamental patterns and their connection with quantitative and qualitative indicators are considered
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CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DYURSO RIVER ICHTHYOCENOSIS
DescriptionIn the article we have described the history of the studies and the modern features of fish community of the Black sea's river Durso (the length 14 km). It was established, that in present time the river includes only seven species of fishes from three ecological groups: freshwater (five species), saltwater (one specie) and marine (one specie). A bleack (Alburnus alburnus) and Colchis minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus colchicus) dominate by quantity in the structure of Durso river fish community, bleack and Prussian carp (Carassius auratus gibelio) dominate by biomass. The negative changes of Durso river conditions were found in compare with the last years. First of all, it appears in biological pollution of fish species allochthonous for this river. In the period of the Durso river monitoring (1935–2014) it was established the distinct raise of allochthonous components with parallel reduce of variety of autochthonous fresh waters rheophilic species. The main reason is the building of reservoir in upper flow of the Durso river in 1976. The additional negative factor influence on of the Durso river fish community is the falling down of the water level during the important period of fish lifecycle. The best condition of fish community is in the middle part of the river were reaches combine with the cold springs and powerful flow